Will Hillary reach 55% in the upcoming general election against Trump?

[Virginiá]

Right now its a even race and economy isnt performing all that great. However, 3+4th quarters economic conditions changes. Its a 271 Clinton electorate, and Castro should be running mate but Trump is a weak candidate.

This isn't an even race at all. Trump has been losing in the polls by lopsided margins for all but a month or so since he announced, and if the election was held today, he'd go down in flames.

People on this forum think he will lose MS, UT, TX, AZ, GA, IN and MO and you think he's being overestimated? lol

I want a sip of the Kool-Aid the red avatars on this board are drinking.

This race will settle to typical equilibrium once the nominees are officially chosen and the healing process begins, which means that MS, UT, TX and IN will be safe Republican (likely tier 3), GA and AZ will be tier 2 Likely Republican. MO will Lean Republican.

The tossup states of FL, OH, VA, NH, etc. will be tossups. The playing field will be your typical tier 1 Republican leans (like NC), tossups and tier 1 Democrat leans (like PA) at the end of the day.

The thing about Donald Trump and the healing process is that while his wounds are trying to heal, he is constantly pouring sulfuric acid on them. His wounds are too deep and too irritated to heal by November.

This is not, and will not be a typical race.

[Virginiá]

The thing about Donald Trump and the healing process is that while his wounds are trying to heal, he is constantly pouring sulfuric acid on them. His wounds are too deep and too irritated to heal by November.

This is not, and will not be a typical race.

Fundamentally, at the end of the day, it will be. Republicans will still be Republicans. Democrats will still be Democrats. A 5-15% defection on either side is nothing new and is to be expected. Nor is this "I refuse to vote for the other guy" in the middle of a heated primary.

As always, Independents will swing the election. There's ample evidence for a swing into either camp at this point. Trump will run well with so-called Reagan Democrats. Hillary! should get Bernie's "Progressive" base.

I don't buy this "Trump is a terrible candidate" meme. He is on track to break the record for votes in a Republican primary in a race that started with 17 candidates for crying out loud. Underestimate him to your peril. 16 other Republican candidates already have.

1. "Reagan Democrats" are already either Republicans or are Democrats that have been voting Republican for decades. The term is no longer applicable as an electoral demographic.

2. Primaries have little to do with the actual general election result. A highly contested primary with 17 candidates for a party that has been out of the White House for 8 years is most certainly going to have high primary turnout, as history (and this cycle) shows us. What history also shows us is that high primary turnout means nothing for the GE. It's not a viable argument in this case.

Trum's teflon applies to a subset of Republican voters. If it applied to the general electorate, the bulk of his poll numbers wouldn't be as abysmal as they are.

I don't buy this "Trump is a terrible candidate" meme.

Are you kidding me? He is a terrible candidate, and I mean that in both that he is a terrible person and running a terrible campaign. Yes, his strategy has worked wonders for a primary. Unfortunately, that same strategy has managed to alienate broad swathes of the electorate and has energized minorities, particularly Hispanics like never before. These voters will be out in force come election day and that threatens his meager chances in critical states.

Perhaps as a Democrat I am overly generous in my criticisms of his electoral chances, but some Republicans here are overly generous in their assumptions that "nothing is wrong with him" or that "the race will be close" or that "Trump is a good candidate".


All I can say is that this picture seems to be the most accurate representation of how some of you guys are treating this election:

[Virginiá]

Things are shifting towards the Democrats, huh? Perhaps Republicans should simply spend time reminding folks why they voted the way they did during the midterm elections. Just remind us about that beautiful thing called Obamacare, remind us how great our economy is running, remind us how wonderful our job creation has been of late, remind us again how the fight against the unnamable Islamic terrorist groups is going. Yeah, who could predict anything but a Democratic landslide?

Because that worked so well in 2012

[Virginiá]

I don't buy this "Trump Hillary is a terrible candidate" meme.

Are you kidding me? He she is a terrible candidate, and I mean that in both that he she is a terrible person and running a terrible campaign. Yes, his her strategy has worked wonders for a primary. Unfortunately, that same strategy has managed to alienate broad swathes of the Progressive electorate and has energized minorities, particularly Hispanics white males like never before. These voters will be out in force come election day and that threatens his her meager chances in critical states.

Perhaps as a Democrat Republican I am overly generous in my criticisms of his her electoral chances, but some Republicans Democrats here are overly generous in their assumptions that "nothing is wrong with him her" or that "the race will be close" or that "Trump Hillary! is a good candidate".

Take the word "Trump" and replace it with Hillary! and you'll get an idea of what Republicans think of Clinton. My sole point here is that at the end of the day, it's going to be mainly status quo. Hillary! is not winning Arizona. Trump is not winning Oregon. The map will settle into its traditional place after the conventions are over and both parties are unified.

Alright, well, all I can say is that by almost all objective measures, Trump looks set to lose big based on the data available right now. The only "evidence" I've seen of him not losing is people assuming things will even out, or his polls will improve, but all of this is just opinions. Right now, and basically the entire time he's been running has showed him lagging behind, a lot of times by gaping margins. So there is more proof, and thus more reason to believe he will lose than not, and not in a close race either.

Also in relation to your change regarding her meager chances - That's not true. It's Trump losing in the polls. That's why I said meager, because he is so far behind her in critical states. Hillary is not behind Trump, so that is not meager.

It kind of bothers me how everyone around here is like "but Trump will do this or that, and win the primary, because he's defied all conventional wisdom!", yet when it comes to him losing badly in the polls for the GE, suddenly conventional wisdom is relevant again? That's such a double standard.

This race is not even right now and there is no evidence yet to suggest it will become even/competitive.