Yes, but with turnout so dismal the headline will be how she won the election with fewer popular votes than Romney received in 2012.
Clinton: 60 million
Trump: 42 million
Other: 7 million
Total: 109 million votes cast, down from 129 million in 2012.
Trump on the ballot is going to drive up turnout on both sides.
The only way I can see turnout being driven up is for independents to come out in droves to prevent Trump.
Donald Trump has already hit his ceiling: the cult that has come out to GOP primaries and overstocked his delegate portfolio thanks to generous allocation rules. I can see - maybe - 45 million Trump votes in the general, but even that seems ridiculous.
Meanwhile, I don't see anyone getting too excited about Hillary. Voters will see polls that show a foregone conclusion and stay home on Election Day.
I'm not so sure. I know the contexts are a little bit different, but the last Canadian federal election (and the last Ontario provincial election, for that matter) saw the anti-conservative party hugely over-perform their poll numbers because people were scared sh-tless of Conservative rule. Donald Trump is
way more threatening than Stephen Harper or Tim Hudak.
I also like to believe that a lot of people are embarrassed to admit they support Hillary because she's been continuously painted as the "uncool" candidate. When it's her against Trump, folks will fall in line for Hillary. Plus, held up against a brash figure like the Donald, Hillary's few positives (they do exist) will, I hope, crystallize in stark contrast. I mean, she
is capable of exuding real warmth in the right situations, and as long as she stays poised, looks like she's enjoying the process, and holds onto some of the lessons she's learned from the primaries, she should be fine. I've got rose-coloured glasses on for sure, but her Pennsylvania speech last week was one of the best speeches she's ever given (dare I say, if a man had given it he would have received lavish praise
). Her interviews have been engaging and personable. She's got a lot of strengths, and she is constantly improving. I am optimistic she will be fine.
That said, I don't think I've ever been more worried about the results of an election, and I'm not even American. I've literally had nightmares about Trump, and I can't begin to explain the sinking feeling I get in the pit of my stomach when I contemplate the fact that Donald Trump
could win. I pray enough Americans will be motivated by a similarly intense feeling.
Poll
