People on this forum think he will lose MS, UT, TX, AZ, GA, IN and MO and you think he's being overestimated? lol
I want a sip of the Kool-Aid the red avatars on this board are drinking.
This race will settle to typical equilibrium once the nominees are officially chosen and the healing process begins, which means that MS, UT, TX and IN will be safe Republican (likely tier 3), GA and AZ will be tier 2 Likely Republican. MO will Lean Republican.
The tossup states of FL, OH, VA, NH, etc. will be tossups. The playing field will be your typical tier 1 Republican leans (like NC), tossups and tier 1 Democrat leans (like PA) at the end of the day.