Turkey's Kurdish Arithmetic

[ingemann]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ilanberman/2013/05/29/turkeys-kurdish-arithmetic/#297f50b550db

Thoughts?

Mine is that this can have interesting consequences for Turkey in the long run. Of course at the same time Kurds are also assimilated into a Turkish identity.

But if we look at this map from 2000



We can see that the birth rate are highest among the Kurdish areas which vote for HDP;



ergo the areas where the Kurds put their national identity over their religious one.

The Turks even fear that the Kurds could become majority in one to two generation.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.ibtimes.com/turkey-high-kurdish-birth-rate-raises-questions-about-future-705488

Of course for political nerds, a interesting aspect are that the high long term birth rate of the Kurds, means that the HDP will likely not go away if the elections stay somewhat free. Instead it will likely grow each election, unless other Turkish parties are able to reach out to non-Islamist Kurds.

Also the renewed conflict in the south east will serve to their birth rate staying high.

[palandio]

It's often difficult to extrapolate demographic and political developments into the future.

I would guess that the Kurdish fertility rate in say 2010, while still being significantly higher than the national average, was certainly much lower than the fertility rate in 2000.

The young (south-eastern) Kurdish generation of today (the children of the 90s) is often described as the most uncompromising and radical generation that has ever been there. And it's also the most numerous. In fact there are good reasons to argue that its size, its perspectives (or lack thereof) and its identity are the direct product of the mass expulsions and mass impoverishment of their parents in the 90s. Thank you Süleyman Demirel, thank you Tansu Çiller. And seeing the current escalation we can already prepare for an even more numerous and radical Kurdish youth in 2035. Thank you Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

All that being said these developments are not imperative. Peace and economic and educational progress (like partially pursued by the AKP government in the past) would let fertility rates drop to a reasonable level soon.

Also the Turkish party system has seen a number of radical shifts in the past decades. Supposing a peaceful solution to the current conflict, we might (again) see divides where ethnic differences are only secondary (sadly my best example for this is Switzerland, which is maybe too unrealistic as a model for Turkey).

And finally, looking at the current migration flows, who says that all the young Kurds that are born today are going to stay in Turkey? Germany already has almost one million Kurds. There won't come all Kurds to Germany, also because in this way they would "concede defeat" in their ancestral homelands, but on the other side Kurdish presence in Germany already has proved its vital importance for Kurdish separatism regarding financing and campaigning.

[Nhoj]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Turkey#Total_fertility_rate_.28TFR.29_by_Province_and_Year
Has some up to date maps and tables.

[ingemann]

It's often difficult to extrapolate demographic and political developments into the future.

I agree and I find the 2038 date for a Kurdish plurality or majority extremely unlikely. But we can expect that the Kurdish population will increase significant in the next few decades (I think 1/3 of the population before 2040 quite likely). Many of the Kurds are born and even if the Kurdish birth rate reach parity with the Turkish one, the next generation of parents will siomply be much more Kurdish than last generation of parents.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Of course, but the map was shown to visuelise the growth, the existing Kurdish birthrate are 4 children per woman (based on the Kurdish provinces), while 1,5 for Turkish provinces

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yes it would, but it doesn't change that the children have been born, the question right now is how many Kurdish children who turn 18 this year compared to how many Turkish children who turn 18 this year. Even if the Kurdish birthrate falls to 1,5 children, the Turkish still have to deal with the fact that the Kurdish population will increase significant over the next 20 years and HDP or another Kurdish party (if HDP is banned) will be a more and more significant force. It will make it unlikely that Turkish secular nationalist will ever be able to regain power and may in the few years make it impossible for AKP in a few years to gain a absolut majority again.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I don't see one in near future, at least not until Erdogan is gone. If AKP are taken over by more moderate forces, we may see a AKP-HDP alliance dominate Turkey the next few decades, creating some kind of multicultural state.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's unlikely at least on a scale where it would change this demographic shift. Germany simply have other sources of unskilled workers, who fit better in (East Europe), unskilled East Europeans are simply less "unskilled" (they speak German or English and understand the German labour market better) than rural Anatolians. What's more likely is a brain drain of skilled western Turks, if the Turkish property bubble burst or if people simply grow to tired of Erdogan. Turks/Kurds are in the position where they're too well off to take the really sh**tty jobs in Europe, too well functioning to be given asylum and too poor to just be let in.

[Gunnar Larsson]

Thoughts?

Mine is that this can have interesting consequences for Turkey in the long run. Of course at the same time Kurds are also assimilated into a Turkish identity.

Is that really happening to any degree? Considering the Turkish attitudes since the formation of the modern state I would consider such a development highly unlikely

[ingemann]

Thoughts?

Mine is that this can have interesting consequences for Turkey in the long run. Of course at the same time Kurds are also assimilated into a Turkish identity.

Is that really happening to any degree? Considering the Turkish attitudes since the formation of the modern state I would consider such a development highly unlikely

Yes there's a long tradition for Kurds assimilate into a Turkish identity, it's important to remember that Kurds are split between some who identifies as Kurds first as some who identifies as Muslims first. The later group votes for AKP and are much more likely to assimilate into a Turkish identity. There's also the Kurds who live outside "Kurdistan" and who intermarry with Turks, at last there's the split between Kurmanji Kurds and Zaza Kurds with the Zazas votivgave much more for AKP than Kurmanjis, with the Tunceli province as the main exception, and the Zazas there are suspected Hidden Armenians.