Predict Trump's Pop. Vote % in the general election

[Orser67]

What percentage of the popular vote do you think Trump will win in the general election? Assuming that Trump wins the nom, of course.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Clinton 55%
Trump 45%

[Virginiá]

Clinton 55%
Trump 45%

That won't happen. 3rd party candidates always prevent splits like that. If Hillary were to get 55%, then Trump would likely pull in 41% - 42% due to Libertarian votes. I imagine Johnson may do pretty well this year (compared to other cycles, anyway)

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I could see him anywhere from 35% to 50%. My gut feeling is that he'll end up around 44%, unless there is a strong 3rd party conservative effort, but his downside risk is almost unprecedented.

[Ljube]

Roughly 49%.

Yes, or 50%, which is what I picked.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Clinton 55%
Trump 45%

That won't happen. 3rd party candidates always prevent splits like that. If Hillary were to get 55%, then Trump would likely pull in 41% - 42% due to Libertarian votes. I imagine Johnson may do pretty well this year (compared to other cycles, anyway)

Possible but agreed. My other choice is 51% for Hillary and 47% for the Trumpster.

[Doimper]

I'd peg it at 44%.

Someone should bump this thread after the election.

[Doimper]

I could see him anywhere from 35% to 50%. My gut feeling is that he'll end up around 44%, unless there is a strong 3rd party conservative effort, but his downside risk is almost unprecedented.

35% would be pushing fifty-state sweep territory, which won't happen unless Trump is filmed pushing a white working-class boy off his tower.

[dspNY]

I voted 45-46% assuming the third parties take 1-2%. The GOP will coalesce around him enough to prevent the massive landslide (because they always unite around their candidate) but he barely gets that 45%. Something like 53.0%-45.1% for Hillary assuming the GOP largely unites.

If the GOP remains fractured, then all bets are off and we're talking about 57-41 or 56-42 Hillary and a big-time landslide, possibly even worse for him than that

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Probably higher than anyone is predicting here, especially if we enter a recession this summer and into the fall. Hillary won't be able to run on Obama's third term if that happens

[Mallow]

43.8%

[Higgs]

around 48%

[Virginiá]

Probably higher than anyone is predicting here, especially if we enter a recession this summer and into the fall. Hillary won't be able to run on Obama's third term if that happens

For argument's sake, it is probably better to leave that out. It's an unlikely scenario right now, and indulging those kinds of "what-if's" in these questions would essentially make it pointless because we would then be shaping widely different realities to fit a perceived result.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Probably higher than anyone is predicting here, especially if we enter a recession this summer and into the fall. Hillary won't be able to run on Obama's third term if that happens

For argument's sake, it is probably better to leave that out. It's an unlikely scenario right now, and indulging those kinds of "what-if's" in these questions would essentially make it pointless because we would then be shaping widely different realities to fit a perceived result.

But "shaping widely different realities to fit a perceived result" is what Republicans are best at! That's why Karl Rove probably still thinks that Romney could yet eke it out in Ohio.

[The Other Castro]

44.1%

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I voted 41-42 but that's probably being a bit generous.

[ProudModerate2]

Probably higher than anyone is predicting here, especially if we enter a recession this summer and into the fall. Hillary won't be able to run on Obama's third term if that happens

OMG.
Are you the one person who voted that trump will get "over 59%" ?
LOL.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I would initially say about 46% to Hillary's 49%.  If we can unite, Trump would have a chance, but it would be unlikely.  Cruz would win 52% to 47%.

[Boston Bread]

43-44 seems right.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Clinton 55%
Trump 45%

That won't happen. 3rd party candidates always prevent splits like that. If Hillary were to get 55%, then Trump would likely pull in 41% - 42% due to Libertarian votes. I imagine Johnson may do pretty well this year (compared to other cycles, anyway)

I think that's about right, barring a major third party push on the right. The Libertarian nominee (likely Johnson) will do well with protesting Republicans of a certain stripe, and a bit more will go to Constitution and other such candidates than normally happens. Trump's percentage will also be pushed down (and Clinton's up) by low turnout on the Republican side (disgust with Trump) and high turnout on the Dem side (fear of Trump). The Greens will likely suffer some as voters like myself pull the lever for Hillary out of fear/disgust/anger with Trump.

Versus Generic Republican, Clinton would only get <52%, assuming she wins at all.

[This account no longer in use.]

Since Duke brought up this possibility...

Without recession:

Clinton 52%
Trump 43%

With moderate recession:

Clinton 49%
Trump 45%

With severe recession:

Clinton 47%
Trump 47%

[TomC]

44.1%

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I would initially say about 46% to Hillary's 49%.  If we can unite, Trump would have a chance, but it would be unlikely.  Cruz would win 52% to 47%.

Please.

[IceSpear]

Right now I would guess 52-46-2 with Hillary winning the Obama 2012 states + NC. But things can change drastically in 6 months.

[Camaro33]

I guarantee in this election, the winner does not get to 50%. A LARGE number of third party votes will happen with Trump vs. Clinton. The third party vote has been increasing over previous elections and a lot of the youth vote is libertarian. 3-5% third party/write-in will not surprise me. So, I voted 46%. It will be a close election.