Cruz-Fiorina and the "Brokered" Convention

[Fuzzy Bear]

Much has been made about Ted Cruz’s “selection” of Carly Fiorina as his “running mate”.  This isn’t usually done until a candidate is a presumptive nominee, but Ronald Reagan did do this in 1976 when he named Sen. Richard Schweiker (a liberal PA Republican) as his running-mate, so the comparison is being made.

There was a HUGE difference in 1976, however.  Neither Reagan nor Gerald Ford had the nomination clinched going into the convention, but the convention was NOT going to select a third candidate.  Ford was a sitting President, and Reagan was the clear leader of the Movement Conservative wing of the party, with broad-based support in the most GOP-leaning states (the Mountain West) and the biggest battleground area (the South).  Cruz isn’t Reagan; he’s a factional candidate who’s disliked intensely by the other factions, and the two (2) top contenders are so disliked by everyone else that a contested convention that turns to Kasich, or some other pick that’s airlifted in, is far from out of the question.

This difference is critical because it puts Cruz in a potential dilemma.  Having selected Fiorina as his prospective VP, he’s placed his whole case for the delegates on the ideas that (A) he was the second-leading candidate in both delegates and votes, (B) he’s won the second most primaries, (C) he’s the candidate who most closely adheres to the conservative positions that the party claims to stand for, and (D) he polls better than Donald Trump versus Hillary Clinton.  These arguments all have counterarguments, not the least of which are (E) Cruz’s unpopularity amongst Republicans, (F) the much stronger poll numbers versus the Democrats posted by John Kasich, and (G) the fact that the GOP really has no more moral obligation to Cruz than to any other candidate on the second ballot of a contested convention. 

So what happens when (and if) Cruz gets within striking distance of the nomination on a second ballot?  What happens if he can get over the top (or, at least, keep the game going) if he will only offer the VP slot to some other candidate?  Will he jettison Fiorina?  If so, how will she take that?  How will the delegates take that?  How will other politicians, who would be thinking about what kind of deal-maker Cruz would be, take that?  More importantly, how would the millions of Americans watching all of this on TV take it?

The only near-precedent I can think of that’s even close to this is McGovern dumping Eagleton in 1972.  In that case, McGovern pledged loyalty, then dumped Eagleton when the heat was turned up; it made the difference between losing big and losing 49 states.  The same could be said if McGovern not publicly lambasting Eagleton for withholding his mental health history from McGovern; he didn’t do that, either, and came off as expedient (as well as a guy making a lousy choice on a big item).  Fiorina, however, is well-vetted; her being dumped under any circumstances would be a case of Cruz appearing expedient, even cold-blooded. 

So how would Ted Cruz handle a situation where, in a contested convention, he had to dump Fiorina and choose someone else for his running mate in order to gain enough delegates for the nomination.  It’s an unlikely scenario, but it’s possible.  WWTD (What would Ted do?).

[SillyAmerican]

Much has been made about Ted Cruz’s “selection” of Carly Fiorina as his “running mate”.  This isn’t usually done until a candidate is a presumptive nominee, but Ronald Reagan did do this in 1976 when he named Sen. Richard Schweiker (a liberal PA Republican) as his running-mate, so the comparison is being made.

There was a HUGE difference in 1976, however.  Neither Reagan nor Gerald Ford had the nomination clinched going into the convention, but the convention was NOT going to select a third candidate.  Ford was a sitting President, and Reagan was the clear leader of the Movement Conservative wing of the party, with broad-based support in the most GOP-leaning states (the Mountain West) and the biggest battleground area (the South).  Cruz isn’t Reagan; he’s a factional candidate who’s disliked intensely by the other factions, and the two (2) top contenders are so disliked by everyone else that a contested convention that turns to Kasich, or some other pick that’s airlifted in, is far from out of the question.

This difference is critical because it puts Cruz in a potential dilemma.  Having selected Fiorina as his prospective VP, he’s placed his whole case for the delegates on the ideas that (A) he was the second-leading candidate in both delegates and votes, (B) he’s won the second most primaries, (C) he’s the candidate who most closely adheres to the conservative positions that the party claims to stand for, and (D) he polls better than Donald Trump versus Hillary Clinton.  These arguments all have counterarguments, not the least of which are (E) Cruz’s unpopularity amongst Republicans, (F) the much stronger poll numbers versus the Democrats posted by John Kasich, and (G) the fact that the GOP really has no more moral obligation to Cruz than to any other candidate on the second ballot of a contested convention. 

So what happens when (and if) Cruz gets within striking distance of the nomination on a second ballot?  What happens if he can get over the top (or, at least, keep the game going) if he will only offer the VP slot to some other candidate?  Will he jettison Fiorina?  If so, how will she take that?  How will the delegates take that?  How will other politicians, who would be thinking about what kind of deal-maker Cruz would be, take that?  More importantly, how would the millions of Americans watching all of this on TV take it?

The only near-precedent I can think of that’s even close to this is McGovern dumping Eagleton in 1972.  In that case, McGovern pledged loyalty, then dumped Eagleton when the heat was turned up; it made the difference between losing big and losing 49 states.  The same could be said if McGovern not publicly lambasting Eagleton for withholding his mental health history from McGovern; he didn’t do that, either, and came off as expedient (as well as a guy making a lousy choice on a big item).  Fiorina, however, is well-vetted; her being dumped under any circumstances would be a case of Cruz appearing expedient, even cold-blooded. 

So how would Ted Cruz handle a situation where, in a contested convention, he had to dump Fiorina and choose someone else for his running mate in order to gain enough delegates for the nomination.  It’s an unlikely scenario, but it’s possible.  WWTD (What would Ted do?).

I honestly think that these questions will end up being moot. I believe Trump will not just win Indiana, but will win the state decisively. Trump may not get to 1237, but he'll get close enough. And the author of "The Art of the Deal" will certainly be able to close any small remaining gap during the weeks running up to the convention. In a few weeks, the Cruz candidacy and the Fiorina choice will be interesting asides.

[wolfsblood07]

I would hope, and I mean really, really hope, that the delegates would accept Carly Fiorina as Cruz's running mate.  Dumping her for an establishment moderate wouldn't sit well.  Fiorina is the anti-Hillary, she will destroy every argument Hillary will put forth and expose her as a phony.  Cruz and Fiorina are the dream ticket for those who want real substance, and action, not the usual empty slogans.

[Mister Mets]

It seems unlikely for Cruz to do better than expected without it reflecting well on Fiorina. If Cruz gets to a brokered convention, it means his gambit with Fiorina worked. As a result, she'll be likely to stay on the ticket.

Delegates are also unlikely to have a problem with her. She's establishment enough for those guys, and has a reasonably high favorability rating with Republicans. And she'll have been in the spotlight for two months.