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Author Topic: It's over.  (Read 3085 times)
Senator Cris
Cris
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« on: April 30, 2016, 07:31:59 AM »
Even if Trump loses Indiana, it's over.

This is my worst scenario for Trump:

Indiana: 9/57
Nebraska: 0/36
West Virginia: 31/34
Oregon: 12/28
Washington: 15/44
Montana: 0/27
South Dakota: 0/29
New Jersey: 51/51
New Mexico: 10/24
California At-Large: 13/13

This means Trump wins 141. Right now, he needs 240 delegates to win. 240 - 141 = 99

99 delegates = 33/53 California districts. And also there are 34 uncommitted delegates.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #1 on: April 30, 2016, 07:35:32 AM »
Why do all of these predictions have West Virginia for Trump?
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2016, 07:37:12 AM »
Quote from: IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi on April 30, 2016, 07:35:32 AM
Why do all of these predictions have West Virginia for Trump?

You seriously believe he's not an awfully good fit for that state?
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #3 on: April 30, 2016, 07:39:26 AM »
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Given that the only 2 West Virginians that I know are vastly in the tank for Cruz? I don't see it.
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LLR
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« Reply #4 on: April 30, 2016, 07:40:42 AM »
Quote from: Angel of Death on April 30, 2016, 07:37:12 AM
Quote from: IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi on April 30, 2016, 07:35:32 AM
Why do all of these predictions have West Virginia for Trump?

You seriously believe he's not an awfully good fit for that state?

The delegate rules in WV are so strange and complex that he will inevitably lose a half a dozen, even if he wins 60%+ of the vote.
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #5 on: April 30, 2016, 07:41:53 AM »
Quote from: IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi on April 30, 2016, 07:39:26 AM
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Given that the only 2 West Virginians that I know are vastly in the tank for Cruz? I don't see it.

I guess you can't argue with a sample size like that.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #6 on: April 30, 2016, 07:42:25 AM »
Well, if you can find me a poll of West Virginia....
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LLR
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« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2016, 11:17:15 AM »
Quote from: IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi on April 30, 2016, 07:42:25 AM
Well, if you can find me a poll of West Virginia....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=230071.0
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Erc
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« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2016, 11:21:02 AM »
Quote from: LongLiveRock on April 30, 2016, 07:40:42 AM
Quote from: Angel of Death on April 30, 2016, 07:37:12 AM
Quote from: IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi on April 30, 2016, 07:35:32 AM
Why do all of these predictions have West Virginia for Trump?

You seriously believe he's not an awfully good fit for that state?

The delegate rules in WV are so strange and complex that he will inevitably lose a half a dozen, even if he wins 60%+ of the vote.

Trump appears to have realized the problem and is advocating votes for Uncommitted delegates that are friendly to him.  A bit harder to pull off than in PA, since voters have to vote for 22-odd delegates, of course.
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Figueira
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« Reply #9 on: May 01, 2016, 11:22:26 AM »

From that thread:

Quote from: realisticidealist on February 22, 2016, 10:43:33 AM
Some tiny sample sizes, but quite interesting nevertheless.

At least it's better than Ben Kenobi's sample size of 2.
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OkThen
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« Reply #10 on: May 01, 2016, 11:29:02 AM »
Quote from: IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi on April 30, 2016, 07:39:26 AM
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Given that the only 2 West Virginians that I know are vastly in the tank for Cruz? I don't see it.

Not officially finished/released yet but...

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/726230055580372993
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #11 on: May 01, 2016, 11:32:02 AM »
Quote from: IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi on April 30, 2016, 07:35:32 AM
Why do all of these predictions have West Virginia for Trump?

have you seen almost every single county bordering West Virginia? he's gonna win easily
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #12 on: May 01, 2016, 11:42:29 AM »
February 22, 2016

With Trump at 40 and Rubio/Carson still in the race. Interesting, but useless.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #13 on: May 01, 2016, 11:48:48 AM »
Quote from: IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi on April 30, 2016, 07:35:32 AM
Why do all of these predictions have West Virginia for Trump?
Lol

West Virginia is Trump's best state in the country.
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Holmes
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« Reply #14 on: May 01, 2016, 11:50:00 AM »
Trump will probably get 65% in West Virginia. Bookmark this.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #15 on: May 01, 2016, 11:52:24 AM »
Quote from: Holmes on May 01, 2016, 11:50:00 AM
Trump will probably get 65% in West Virginia. Bookmark this.
I wouldn't be surprise at all if he does.
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JRoby
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« Reply #16 on: May 01, 2016, 11:52:38 AM »
Quote from: IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi on May 01, 2016, 11:42:29 AM
February 22, 2016

With Trump at 40 and Rubio/Carson still in the race. Interesting, but useless.

PPP has Trump at or near 60%.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #17 on: May 01, 2016, 11:54:11 AM »
I already knew that Trump will be the nominee which I am cautiously excited about. I feel like he will either win by a lot or lose by a lot.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #18 on: May 01, 2016, 11:57:07 AM »
Basically it's all down to California, and Trump's winning California.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #19 on: May 01, 2016, 12:00:09 PM »
Quote from: Senator Cris on April 30, 2016, 07:31:59 AM
Even if Trump loses Indiana, it's over.

This is my worst scenario for Trump:

Indiana: 9/57
Nebraska: 0/36
West Virginia: 31/34
Oregon: 12/28
Washington: 15/44
Montana: 0/27
South Dakota: 0/29
New Jersey: 51/51
New Mexico: 10/24
California At-Large: 13/13

This means Trump wins 141. Right now, he needs 240 delegates to win. 240 - 141 = 99

99 delegates = 33/53 California districts. And also there are 34 uncommitted delegates.

I've been doing projections of high, low, and median scenarios for the delegate math since mid-March, and this basically lines up with my view of the race. Unless Trump's support has a fairly dramatic meltdown in California (unlikely but not impossible), he is either going to be at 1237 or so close that the uncommitted delegates will be shamed into backing him.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #20 on: May 01, 2016, 12:34:02 PM »
Quote from: IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi on April 30, 2016, 07:39:26 AM
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Given that the only 2 West Virginians that I know are vastly in the tank for Cruz? I don't see it.

Well, if only two people turn out for Republican Primary in WV, Cruz has got a shot, if turnout is higher than five, he's screwed.
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dax00
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« Reply #21 on: May 01, 2016, 01:59:31 PM »
To: Kenobi

If you'd like to bet $500 on a Trump WV loss in the election betting thread, I'd love to take you up on it...
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #22 on: May 01, 2016, 05:01:53 PM »
This would be a scenario with Cruz losing Indiana that he would have to do in order to deny Trump the nomination.

IN: 51/57 (I think this is the most likely, but could be 54 or 48)
NE: 0/36 (If Cruz doesn't win this, then it'll be completely over early)
WV: 26/34 (conservative here for the insane delegate rules)
OR: 12/28 (conservative estimate, could be more)
WA: 18/44 (see OR)
CA: 66/172 (22 districts or less would deny him the majority. If he wins one of the WTA states, he would have to be limited to 13 districts or less. This does not even include doing better in the delegates in WV or getting more unpledged from territories and whatnot)
MT: 0/27
NJ: 51/51
NM: 10/24 (see OR and WA)
SD: 0/29
Unpledged: At least 44

Almost improbable.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #23 on: May 01, 2016, 06:15:59 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on May 01, 2016, 11:50:00 AM
Trump will probably get 65% in West Virginia. Bookmark this.

Quoted for posterity.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #24 on: May 01, 2016, 06:18:30 PM »
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I'd do a siggy bet. Since y'all are asserting a Trump +10 or whatevs - Trump winning by less that 60 percent, or Cruz winning, I win, else you win.
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