Put a Rating on the US House for 2016 - Spring 2016

[ElectionsGuy]

Likely R

Last result (Summer 2015): 70% Safe R, 20% Likely R, 8% Lean R, 2% Toss-up.

[MT Treasurer]

Safe R.

[The Other Castro]

Safe R. It would be Likely R if the Republicans didn't shore up so many extra seats in 2014. Taking 30 seats is a wave situation, and it means they have to win the popular vote massively. I only see that happening with a Donald Trump candidacy for President, which won't happen.

Well this is interesting. Also, Likely R for now, though I see a Lean R rating becoming possible sooner than we think.

[NewYorkExpress]

Lean R... because Trump is the most likely GOP nominee, and he is not popular in districts Democrats need.

[ElectionsGuy]

Safe R. It would be Likely R if the Republicans didn't shore up so many extra seats in 2014. Taking 30 seats is a wave situation, and it means they have to win the popular vote massively. I only see that happening with a Donald Trump candidacy for President, which won't happen.

Well this is interesting. Also, Likely R for now, though I see a Lean R rating becoming possible sooner than we think.

Ugh, it is. It took me until about October or November to realize he was a favorite (or a top player) for the nomination.

[JerryArkansas]

Lean R, but if these turnout and registration figures keep coming, it may go to tossup.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Leans R for now. But, if there is an electoral landslide and states like AZ, FL and Va are kept in play with the down Trump or Cruz year, the Majority is threatened

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Safe R

[Maxwell]

Likely R. I wish it were lower but the numbers are too tough for it to be anything but likely R.

[windjammer]

Lean Rep.

The House dem recruitment hasn't been so *bad*. Republicans need to lose badly the presidential election (something like by 10 points).
It can happen, but I don't think Trump would be eviscerated at this level (I think he will more likely lose by 6-7 points).

So Republicans have the edge right now.

[Xing]

Likely R. It will take a wave for the Democrats to take back the House, but the Republicans picking Trump might just end up being the perfect storm.

[publicunofficial]

Likely R. If Clinton starts to pull away from Trump, a lot of money could flow to the DCCC and prop up some of the weaker recruits. Hispanic turnout increasing and being even more Democratic leaning could put a lot of seats in play (CA-39 is going to be competitive this cycle, call it a hunch)

There are still a lot of seats where I think D's have already dropped the ball, that will really hurt come November (OH-14, VA-02) and seats I would really like them to make a bigger play for than they currently are (CA-10, NY-21, NJ-03, IN-02).

[Orser67]

Likely R. Democrats need a wave, but I don't think a wave is all that unlikely and there are plenty of fairly even districts (i.e. R+3 or less, plus probably a few ticket-splitting outliers) that could go Democratic in a wave.

[Figueira]

If the Democrats get ALL the Lean R seats (according to Cook IIRC) they win. However, the likelihood of getting all of those seats pushes it slightly into Likely R territory. So I'll go with Likely R, bordering on Lean R.

[Nyvin]

I would say Lean R.    The only reason this isn't "Likely" is because it looks like Trump is going to be the GOP Nominee.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Likley R with Trump
Lean R/Toss-Up with Cruz

[PAK Man]

Likely R. While Democrats have gotten some good recruits in their races, there's also races that should be competitive but recruitment hasn't been great.

IL-12 and IL-13 are great examples; both have an even PVI yet nobody with any name recognition or ability to make the seats competitive filed. (Though, to be fair, C.J. Baricevic in IL-12 surprisingly outraised Mike Bost in the last quarter, much to everyone's shock.) Likewise, recruitment in winnable VA-02 only landed a perennial candidate. (I don't consider the race competitive at all)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt R House
Tilt D Senate


But House is always a lagging indicator of Senate but a 2012 map will but House at Risk

[Young Conservative]

Likely R. the house is unlikely to go democratic for years.

[ElectionsGuy]

Two more weeks until the summer poll

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Lean R, but closer to Likley R then Tossup.

[smoltchanov]

Lean R, but closer to Likley R then Tossup.

Agree

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Likely R. I wish it were lower but the numbers are too tough for it to be anything but likely R.

This, but I could definitely see the Democrats gaining about 20 seats.

[Sir Mohamed]

Likely R.

[windjammer]

Still lean rep,
Trump's implosion is definitely a strong possibility