Does TRUMP have a shot in Nebraska?
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Author Topic: Does TRUMP have a shot in Nebraska?  (Read 983 times)
Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« on: May 03, 2016, 01:28:17 AM »
Argument against - Except for a squeaker in Missouri, Cruz won surrounding states - Colorado, Wyoming, Kansas, and Iowa, mostly by large margins. Nebraska is also heavily rural and has roughly the same evangelical % as Iowa and Idaho, which Cruz also won.

Argument for - Cruz will have negative momentum after his likely loss in Indiana and the general sentiment will be that he should get out of the race, which will lose him votes. Colorado, Wyoming, Kansas, and Iowa were all caucus states while Nebraska is a primary, and two of them relied on undemocratic state conventions. The only thing roughly comparable is Missouri, which TRUMP narrowly won. There has also been basically no polling in Nebraska (Ben Carson was leading in the last one), so no one really knows what's going on.

Discuss.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2016, 01:31:42 AM »
Trump can at minimum make it competitive.
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2016, 01:35:18 AM »
Only if Cruz truly tanks (double digit loss) in Indiana or drops out.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #3 on: May 03, 2016, 01:44:53 AM »
I don't think it's completely out of the question that Cruz will drop out tomorrow.  He admitted that Indiana is a must-win state, and it's likely that funds will dry up and the entire #StopTrump movement will collapse if he loses.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2016, 01:48:14 AM »
He might as well try. West Virginia is safe Trump anyway so he doesn't have anything to lose.
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dax00
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« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2016, 01:52:53 AM »
Quote from: Ronnie on May 03, 2016, 01:44:53 AM
I don't think it's completely out of the question that Cruz will drop out tomorrow.  He admitted that Indiana is a must-win state, and it's likely that funds will dry up and the entire #StopTrump movement will collapse if he loses.
You should bet me in the Election Betting Thread, then. I have a bet on offer at 2:7 odds that he won't drop out Tuesday or Wednesday. I put up $105 and you put up $30.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2016, 01:55:15 AM »
Quote from: đậξ ⁰₀ on May 03, 2016, 01:52:53 AM
Quote from: Ronnie on May 03, 2016, 01:44:53 AM
I don't think it's completely out of the question that Cruz will drop out tomorrow.  He admitted that Indiana is a must-win state, and it's likely that funds will dry up and the entire #StopTrump movement will collapse if he loses.
You should bet me in the Election Betting Thread, then. I have a bet on offer at 2:7 odds that he won't drop out Tuesday or Wednesday. I put up $105 and you put up $30.

I've learned that I'm always wrong when it comes to betting and gambling, so no thanks.  I just blew $130 on PredictIt.
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JRoby
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« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2016, 06:16:11 AM »
Yes. If it were a low-energy caucus I'd say no, but it's not.

GOP primary voters want this crap to over and done with so we can take on Hillary.
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2016, 07:24:48 AM »
Don't forget that popular Sen. Ben Sasse will likely be all over the state campaigning against Trump.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #9 on: May 03, 2016, 07:42:46 AM »
He shouldn't, but if the margin in Indiana is overwhelming and it looks like Trump is the nominee, NE voters could fall in line with the presumptive nominee.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #10 on: May 03, 2016, 08:06:25 AM »
« Edited: May 03, 2016, 08:28:47 AM by Meclazine »
The Trumpslide is on.

Of course he can.
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MK
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« Reply #11 on: May 03, 2016, 08:22:11 AM »
Quote from: Meclazine on May 03, 2016, 08:06:25 AM
Trumpslide is on.

If course he can.

Like that sig.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #12 on: May 03, 2016, 08:54:25 AM »
Just changed it from Hillary to Cruz.
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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #13 on: May 03, 2016, 09:27:02 AM »
Quote from: Ronnie on May 03, 2016, 01:55:15 AM
Quote from: đậξ ⁰₀ on May 03, 2016, 01:52:53 AM
Quote from: Ronnie on May 03, 2016, 01:44:53 AM
I don't think it's completely out of the question that Cruz will drop out tomorrow.  He admitted that Indiana is a must-win state, and it's likely that funds will dry up and the entire #StopTrump movement will collapse if he loses.
You should bet me in the Election Betting Thread, then. I have a bet on offer at 2:7 odds that he won't drop out Tuesday or Wednesday. I put up $105 and you put up $30.

I've learned that I'm always wrong when it comes to betting and gambling, so no thanks.  I just blew $130 on PredictIt.

It's completely fake money
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Santander
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« Reply #14 on: May 03, 2016, 12:47:10 PM »
Trump is more likely to get shot in Nebraska than win the primary.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #15 on: May 03, 2016, 12:54:20 PM »
I feel like the closest comparable state to Nebraska is probably Oklahoma, since they are both primaries rather than caucuses. Based on that, I could see it being close, but I would still give the edge to Cruz.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: May 03, 2016, 02:56:04 PM »
Quote from: Seriously? on May 03, 2016, 07:42:46 AM
He shouldn't, but if the margin in Indiana is overwhelming and it looks like Trump is the nominee, NE voters could fall in line with the presumptive nominee.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #17 on: May 03, 2016, 05:58:15 PM »
Quote from: whitesox130 on May 03, 2016, 07:24:48 AM
Don't forget that popular Sen. Ben Sasse will likely be all over the state campaigning against Trump.

For this reason, I say Cruz wins.  It will matter more to Ben Sasse than to Cruz, but Ben Sasse matters more to Nebraskans than does Cruz.
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MIKESOWELL
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« Reply #18 on: May 04, 2016, 01:34:39 AM »
Quote from: xingkerui on May 03, 2016, 01:35:18 AM
Only if Cruz truly tanks (double digit loss) in Indiana or drops out.
Get this man a cigar! Nailed it.
I think that at this point, Trump will win Nebraska by 10 points, maybe more. This race is OVER.
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Xing
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« Reply #19 on: May 04, 2016, 02:02:15 AM »
Quote from: MIKESOWELL on May 04, 2016, 01:34:39 AM
Quote from: xingkerui on May 03, 2016, 01:35:18 AM
Only if Cruz truly tanks (double digit loss) in Indiana or drops out.
Get this man a cigar! Nailed it.
I think that at this point, Trump will win Nebraska by 10 points, maybe more. This race is OVER.

Well, that wasn't so much a prediction as an analysis of what it would take for Trump to win NE. Wink Looks like Trump will easily win NE now, since it's not exactly Kasich-friendly territory.
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