GOP Contested Convention ballots

[Senator-elect Spark]

Who would win on the 2nd or 3rd ballots and what would be the final tally?

My predictions:

2nd ballot:

Cruz- 1226 delegates, 49.59%
Trump- 660 delegates, 26.69%
Kasich- 586 delegates, 23.70%

Cruz falls short by 10 delegates, which prevents him from securing a majority. The delegation will then have to resort to a third ballot. Many of the states that Trump won had switched over to support Kasich.

3rd ballot:

Kasich- 1731 delegates, 75.02%
Cruz- 580 delegates, 23.46%
Trump- 66 delegates- 1.52%

In this scenario, the third ballot will likely lead to a Kasich win. Kasich is able to clinch the nomination after a series of horse trading. The decision was made based on his electability. Many Trump delegates became unbound and thus rallied around Kasich. Cruz may win more states but Kasich will win nonetheless.

The best possible scenario for the GOP is for Cruz to win on the second ballot because Trump's voters will be less likely to stay home for the election. Trump's voters will be able to make an easier transition to vote for Cruz instead of Kasich.  If the GOP is able to coalesce around Cruz, then this will most likely make the election slightly competitive in the fall.

[Ronnie]

Perhaps we should wait until the Indiana Primary before we even entertain the idea of a contested convention?

[standwrand]

3rd ballot doesn't go to Kasich, but instead the compromise candidate begins to get delegates and this candidate would then win on the 4th or 5th ballot.

[pppolitics]

There isn't going to be a second ballot nor a third.

[Mr. Morden]

The most plausible contested convention scenario right now is that Trump goes in with 1200-1210 and the PA unpledged put him over the top.

I would assume that if Trump is over 1200 on pledged delegates alone, enough of the unpledged delegates will have already publicly promised to vote for Trump well before the convention begins that Trump's victory on the first ballot will be known well before the convention takes place.  So would that really count as a contested convention?

[dax00]

If it looks like Trump will get enough unpledged delegates to win on the first ballot, it's an open convention. If there's a high probability of multiple ballots, it's a contested convention. At least, that's how I define/discern the two terms.

[Mr. Morden]

If it looks like Trump will get enough unpledged delegates to win on the first ballot, it's an open convention. If there's a high probability of multiple ballots, it's a contested convention. At least, that's how I define/discern the two terms.

Wouldn't the 2008 Dem convention be an "open convention" by that standard, since Obama didn't have the numbers to win the nomination from pledged delegates alone?  He needed the super delegates in order to put him over the top.

[SillyAmerican]

Perhaps we should wait until the Indiana Primary before we even entertain the idea of a contested convention?

Yes. As fun as it is to play along with these scenarios, they'll all be moved to the moot section very shortly.

[Indy Texas]

It's more complicated than that. Some states require their delegates to be bound on the second ballot as well or have rules regarding what happens if the candidate they're bound to doesn't reach a certain threshold of support.

And I believe Florida is one of the only states that permanently binds its delegates, meaning they all have to keep voting for Trump, presumably unless he withdrew his name from consideration.