Election betting thread.

[Badger]

New rule: I will remove obvious bets.

Why not, instead, just make it so that unaccepted bets that are neutralized like in a actual bet? If I bet that Clinton will win the election and end up being wrong but there were no takers, then no one should get or lose money. If you're doing it more like a casino where the money goes to the house then you should only lose money if no one takes you up but gain nothing (except get the money back that you put in), if end up being right. As such if I bet that Clinton wins and she loses I lose my money, but if she wins all I get is the money I put into the pot.

Endorsed. Also proposed:

Any accepted bet can NOT be withdrawn from.

Any bet offered is given to be extended to the first single person to accept, unless the bettor specifically states their offer can be taken up by (e.g.) 2, 3, 4, whatever.

[Badger]

I'll offer $50 Trump doesn't carry any 2008 Obama state other than Indiana in November.

I'll bet $50 at 2-1 odds (you get $100 if you win) Trump won't carry any Obama 2012 state.

[dax00]

I'll bet $50 at 2-1 odds (you get $100 if you win) Trump won't carry any Obama 2012 state.

I'll bet you on that.

[This account no longer in use.]

I'll take your bet about Cruz suspending his campaign, Dax.

[dax00]

I'll take your bet about Cruz suspending his campaign, Dax.

I, in my general lack of competence in noticing things, forgot to include the "not" in the betting summary. The proposed bet was correct on the bottom of page 2, where it lies not ever having been edited. Do you still accept?

[This account no longer in use.]

No, I do not accept.

[RR1997]

Thank you guys for doing this. I agree that we should ban bet withdrawals. I've been very busy.

[dax00]

Also, why am I not included on that big list of bets? I currently have $1,000, but $700 is betted.

Badger and I agree that bets should only be able to be accepted once unless otherwise stated, to be fair to the first person who accepted.

[Baki]

500$ that Hillary wins more than 350 electoral votes.
250$ that Hillary wins AZ

I'll take both of these.

[Senator Cris]

Can 2 or more people take on the same bet?

[Sorenroy]

Can 2 or more people take on the same bet?

Any bet offered is given to be extended to the first single person to accept, unless the bettor specifically states their offer can be taken up by (e.g.) 2, 3, 4, whatever.

I never saw anyone say anything definitive, but it looks like your answer is no.

[dax00]

I think the best way to settle it, if you want to get in on a bet that was already accepted, is to ask the original bettor if they're willing to take it again. Another option would be to ask the person who first accepted to see if they're willing to split the pot.

[Senator Cris]

$100 on Trump winning 7 out of 9 Indiana CDs.

[dax00]

$100 on Trump winning 7 out of 9 Indiana CDs.

To clarify, exactly 7 or at least 7?

I know the way you phrased it technically implies "at least 7", but it's always good to make these things very clear.

[Senator Cris]

$100 on Trump winning 7 out of 9 Indiana CDs.

To clarify, exactly 7 or at least 7?

I know the way you phrased it technically implies "at least 7", but it's always good to make these things very clear.

Exactly 7.

[Sorenroy]

$100 on Trump winning 7 out of 9 Indiana CDs.

I'll take this.

[dax00]

Today's Bets (projected winners in bold):

i. $35 @ 1:1, Sanders wins IN(p), offered by RR1997, taken by Steve
ii. $20 @ 1:1, Cruz wins IN(p), offered by OC, taken by RR1997
iii. $65 @ 1:1, Sanders loses IN(p) by double digits, offered by Steve, taken by Baki
iv. $50 @ 1:1 Clinton wins IN(p), offered by MikeWells, taken by Santander
v. $25 @ 1:1, Trump wins IN(p), offered by MikeWells, taken by Santander
vi. $300 @ 1:1, Trump wins IN(p) with 55%+, offered by Meclazine, taken by dax00
vii. $300 @ 1:1, Hillary wins IN(p) with 55%+, offered by Meclazine, taken by xingkerui
viii. $400 @ 1:1, Trump wins IN(p), offered by Doctor Imperialism, accepted by Santander
ix. $500 @ 1:1, IN(p) within 6% for both parties, offered by Castro, taken by RR1997
x. $100 @ 1:1, Trump wins exactly 7 CDs in IN(p), offered by Cris, taken by Sorenroy

Projected Changes:
RR1997 (+555)
Doctor Imperialism (+400)
xingkerui (+300)
dax00 (+300)
Sorenroy (+100)
Baki (+65)
OC (-20)
MikeWells (-25)
Steve (-100)
Cris (-100)
Santander (-375)
Castro (-500)
Meclazine (-600)

[Wells]

You seem to be forgetting:

$50 that Clinton wins Indiana
$25 that Trump wins Indiana
$50 that Clinton wins Kentucky

I'll give you action on all of these.

I'll double all of these now.

[dax00]

$50 that Clinton wins Indiana
$25 that Trump wins Indiana
$50 that Clinton wins Kentucky

I'll give you action on all of these.

I'll double all of these now.

Santander never formally accepted the doubling.

[This account no longer in use.]

Congrats, RR.

[Doimper]

It's horrifying that Donald Trump is the presumptive nominee of a major political party, but at least I have a lot of imaginary Internet money to console myself with.

[RR1997]

Thanks for all your help, dax00.

I will update the first post tomorrow.

[Wells]

I bet $500 that all remaining candidates will take to the convention.

[Sorenroy]

It's horrifying that Donald Trump is the presumptive nominee of a major political party, but at least I have a lot of imaginary Internet money to console myself with.

*Sigh* The thing is I put Sanders down for the win in Indiana on the predict part of the website. I should have put my fake money where my mouth was and placed a bet. I would have made bank.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

The following bets are still open (no one has accepted these bets yet, feel free to accept some of these if you believe that their predictions are going to be false):

I'll bet $15 that Trump will win Oregon.

$50 that Trump wins Oregon

I'll take both of these bets.