IN-NBC/WSJ/Marist: D: Clinton 50% Sanders 46%; R: Trump 49% Cruz 34% Kasich 13%

[libertpaulian]

Oh yeah, one other reason to think the NBC/WSJ poll might be an outlier: It shows Trump beating both Clinton (easily) AND Sanders H2H in Indiana in November. That also seems....unlikely.

Not really.  The voting base of Southern Indiana seems like a good fit for Trump.

[libertpaulian]

lol, this rings a bell.

I'm serious about this whole NH thing, though.

So you seriously believe that Hawaii and Vermont are more Democratic than New Hampshire?

No, just that they're not less likely to vote Republican than NH. The Democrats' margin of victory might be wider in VT and HI, but that doesn't mean that NH is more competitive. Trump has zero appeal among women and liberal college students there. Most of them think he's worse than Hitler and Stalin combined and they will turn out in record setting numbers to prevent him from winning 270 electoral votes. NH will have the biggest gender gap of all states.

Despite the fact that Trump is down by 8-15 points nationwide, he's still ahead by a lot in Indiana. McCain lost Indiana because he was seen as a RINO by most conservatives there, so they stayed home. Trump should easily win Indiana.

Okay, but why did McCain win GA and MO, then? Also, Trump is "only" down 6-7 points and not 8-15 points.

NH is more likely to go red for Trump than PA.