IN-NBC/WSJ/Marist: Young +32 in GOP primary

[MT Treasurer]

If the 2016 Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Indiana were held today,
whom would you support if the candidates are: (including those who are
undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or voted absentee):

Todd Young: 56%
Marlin Stutzman: 24%
Undecided: 19%

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/NBC%20NewsWSJMarist.pdf

[Heisenberg]

Yes! Yes! Yes! Go Todd Young!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Junk Poll

[SATW]

YASS

[standwrand]

lol ok

[IceSpear]

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yeah, you're not getting the senate. (well, unless McCain, Burr, or Blunt loses.)

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Yeah, you're not getting the senate. (well, unless McCain, Burr, or Blunt loses.)

The IL + WI + NH + FL route is still very much possible for Democrats (assuming Heck loses in NV). I agree that all the other Republican-held seats are going to be tough for them to flip, though.

I feel like Heck will win barring a Democratic wave.  But, this poll seems like an outlier (which gives me hope that their presidential topline was also wrong).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Portman and FL open seat plus AZ is alive and well. We don't have to win all. But Johnson & Kirk are toast.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yeah, you're not getting the senate. (well, unless McCain, Burr, or Blunt loses.)

The IL + WI + NH + FL route is still very much possible for Democrats (assuming Heck loses in NV). I agree that all the other Republican-held seats are going to be tough for them to flip, though.

A 50-50 tie is going to get pretty comical when we have to watch the vice president head to the senate to break the tie of every party line vote. Plus there's basically zero chance it's maintained in 2018. A real majority is 51-49 or above. PA is more or less gone with McGinty's nomination, so you have to sweep IL, WI, NH, FL, and OH. And FL dems may nominate Grayson, who would make the general Safe R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Grayson supported Sanders I doubt that he wins.

[IceSpear]

Yeah, you're not getting the senate. (well, unless McCain, Burr, or Blunt loses.)

Huh? This was always like...the 10th seat that would flip. In fact, none of those other three are necessary either. The easiest path is clearly WI/IL/FL/NH, with OH/PA as possible backups.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH/FL/IL/WI and McCain is vulnerable. Gives Dems 50 or 51 depending if Brown is taken. Castro should he taken.

[Xing]

Yeah, if Young wins, this probably goes from Likely R to Safe R, but this race was always a longshot. IL/WI/FL/NH remains the path of least resistance for Democrats, and OH/PA (though I'm less optimistic since McGinty won) could get the Democrats over 50. NC remains a possibility as well, though Trump will probably have to lose NC by at least 3% for Burr to go down.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm less optimistic about Hassan's chances and Murphy and Strickland are strong recruits Dems clinch with OH and FL and a chance to defeat McCain..