From
Our Seante:
Senate 2006 ratings Part I - Arizona to Michigan
I will be assessing all of the Senate races of 2006, rated on a 7-point scale: Solid Democratic, Likely Democratic, Lean Democratic, Toss-Up, Lean Republican, Likely Republican, or Solid Republican. One race, Vermont, is a special case, as it is Solid Independent. This entry includes the first 11 races - Arizona to Michigan.
Arizona - Likely Republican
Incumbent: Jon Kyl (R) - elected in 1994
The last poll had Kyl only polling at 46%, but he was hugely ahead of his fairly unknown likely Democratic challenger, Arizona Democratic Party Chairman Jim Pederson. This may become a race to watch, depending on how Pederson runs his campaign and how Americans feel about the GOP leadership in autumn 2006. For now, Kyl seems heavily favored.
California - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Dianne Feinstein (D) - elected in 1992 special election
Feinstein is safe and is now more popular than the only Republican who was thought to be able to beat her, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Connecticut - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Joe Lieberman (D) - elected in 1988
Lieberman may face a liberal primary challenge, but he'll survive and go on to win in a landslide.
Delaware - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Tom Carper (D) - elected in 2000
Carper is safe.
Florida - Lean Democratic
Incumbent: Bill Nelson (D) - elected in 2000
Nelson got a huge boost this week when Rep. Katherine Harris (R), the divisive architect of Bush's 2000 Florida victory, announced her intentions to challenge him. She will likely bring angry Democrats to the polls in droves. Republican polls already show her losing 41-48 to Nelson, and given that those are partisan polls, Nelson is likely over the magic 50% line. Once considered the most vulnerable Democrat in 2006, Nelson is now the clear favorite by virtue of his opponent's weakness.
Hawaii - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Daniel Akaka (D) - appointed in 1990
Akaka is running, despite his age, and is very safe.
Indiana - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Richard Lugar (R) - elected in 1976
If former Rep. Tim Roemer (D) decides to run, which he is considering, this will go to Likely Republican or even Lean Republican. But until Roemer decides, Lugar is safe.
Maine - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Olympia Snowe (R) - elected in 1994
Snowe is very popular in Maine for her moderation and willingness to cross party lines.
Maryland - Likely Democratic
Incumbent: Paul Sarbanes (D) - elected in 1976
Sarbanes is retiring, and Rep. Ben Cardin (D), the favorite of Maryland's Democratic establishment, is slightly favored to hold the seat. The last poll showed Cardin beating Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R), a possible candidate, in a theoretical matchup, 41-37. Given that Steele's name recognition is significantly higher than Cardin's, those are good numbers. Cardin must first beat former NAACP President Kweisi Mfume in the primary, though.
Massachusetts - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Ted Kennedy (D) - elected in 1962 special election
Kennedy is running for his 8th full term, and will own this seat until he dies.
Michigan - Likely Democratic
Incumbent: Debbie Stabenow (D) - elected in 2000
Stabenow was supposed to be vulnerable, but the weakness of the Republican field leaves her with two major challengers - extremist reverend Keith Butler and Jane Abraham, wife of the Senator Stabenow ousted in 2000. Stabenow leads Butler 57-30 and Abraham 59-30. For Stabenow, it is not the gap, but the actual number she is at, that is reason to cheer. For her to be nearing 60% is excellent given Michigan's swing-state reputation and her expected vulnerability. So, at this point she is a favorite for reelection.
Coming soon: Minnesota to Ohio.(Our Senate is a site ran by Democrats, but they tend to be non-partisan in their reviews. If you disagree with any of these just point them out.)
