Grassley losing supoort in Iowa

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/senate-grassley-poll-222696?cmpid=sf

I guess hes vulnerable to Patty Judge who needs to make a name for herself

[MT Treasurer]

Won't matter, he'll still win easily. Sorry.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't count this towards the Dem 50 th seat. Grassley is far from safe. In a wave he will go down.

[Bismarck]

Won't matter, he'll still win easily. Sorry.

This. Grassley consistently has won even most of the blue counties in Iowa. He has a large cushion of support.

[MT Treasurer]

Won't matter, he'll still win easily. Sorry.

This. Grassley consistently has won even most of the blue counties in Iowa. He has a large cushion of support.

If the SCOTUS controversy was such a drag on Republicans, Toomey, Ayotte, Portman and all the other vulnerable Republicans would be trailing by double digits. Spoiler: They're not.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would rate this as tilt R. Definitely not safe

[Virginiá]

Won't matter, he'll still win easily. Sorry.

This. Grassley consistently has won even most of the blue counties in Iowa. He has a large cushion of support.

If the SCOTUS controversy was such a drag on Republicans, Toomey, Ayotte, Portman and all the other vulnerable Republicans would be trailing by double digits. Spoiler: They're not.

You are most likely right about him winning easily this November, but just because this issue doesn't drag down favorables for those other Senators doesn't mean it's ineffective against Grassley. Iowa voters may care more about it and Democrats have been going after him pretty hard due to his position in the Senate. It's just not quite the same.

[Nyvin]

Won't matter, he'll still win easily. Sorry.

This. Grassley consistently has won even most of the blue counties in Iowa. He has a large cushion of support.

If the SCOTUS controversy was such a drag on Republicans, Toomey, Ayotte, Portman and all the other vulnerable Republicans would be trailing by double digits. Spoiler: They're not.

The SCOTUS issue is more connected to Grassley since he's the head of the judiciary committee. 

[Ebsy]

His favorability numbers among Democrats and Democratic leaning Independents are likely just softening a bit due to his intractable stand on Garland. It's not a serious threat to his reelection at this point.

[IceSpear]

Here's hoping that Grassley's "popularity" is about as stable as Mark Warner's was. I kind of doubt it though.

[Free Bird]

Here's hoping that Grassley's "popularity" is about as stable as Mark Warner's was. I kind of doubt it though.

There's a difference of 36 years and 6

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Here's hoping that Grassley's "popularity" is about as stable as Mark Warner's was. I kind of doubt it though.

How would a Warner scenario - quite literally everyone preparing for a Grassley landslide but getting a Grassley squeaker on election day - help things? If you have no idea what's going on until election day, you can hardly adjust resources.

[windjammer]

He's obviously the favorite although he has been weakened by the hearings.

Democrats are right to invest here though, even if that's an opportunity, a longshot opportunité but an opportunity.

[Young Conservative]

Won't matter, he'll still win easily. Sorry.

This. Grassley consistently has won even most of the blue counties in Iowa. He has a large cushion of support.

If the SCOTUS controversy was such a drag on Republicans, Toomey, Ayotte, Portman and all the other vulnerable Republicans would be trailing by double digits. Spoiler: They're not.

All of this is true

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Patty Judge is definately a 2nd tier candidate. This would be Dems other pickup opportunity after OH.

[Figueira]

Likely R I guess, but this is worth watching.

Here's hoping that Grassley's "popularity" is about as stable as Mark Warner's was. I kind of doubt it though.

How would a Warner scenario - quite literally everyone preparing for a Grassley landslide but getting a Grassley squeaker on election day - help things? If you have no idea what's going on until election day, you can hardly adjust resources.

That isn't the analogy IceSpear was making.

[Xing]

Grassley is probably safe, but he might get a relatively underwhelming margin of victory. In an enormous wave, it's possible (though not likely) that he could get Warner'd.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think it will be a wave since Rassy is only pollster to have Trump ahead. Burr and Grassley aren't safe

[indietraveler]

He's such a big name here being a long time senator, I don't see him losing. It'll be contested more, unlike years past, but in the end won't matter. He'll have to have everything for him go wrong and everything else go right for whoever he ends up against for there to be a chance.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Won't matter, he'll still win easily. Sorry.

This. Grassley consistently has won even muost of the blue counties in Iowa. He has a large cushion of support.

If the SCOTUS controversy was such a drag on Republicans, Toomey, Ayotte, Portman and all the other vulnerable Republicans would be trailing by double digits. Spoiler: They're not.

The fact is that Dems only need 4 seats for majority and Portman would be safe if Jeb was the nominee increases Dems chances. Hagen, Landrieu and Braley went trailing by double digits either.


I would say McCain & Grassley are vulnerable due to age where Blunt & Burr arent. Strickland is old but he has enough black support behind him.

[pbrower2a]

He's such a big name here being a long time senator, I don't see him losing. It'll be contested more, unlike years past, but in the end won't matter. He'll have to have everything for him go wrong and everything else go right for whoever he ends up against for there to be a chance.

Richard Lugar was about as big a name in Indiana politics as there ever was. He lost (if in the primary instead of the general election).

Attempting to delay the vote for the vacant seat on the Supreme Court until the Trump Administration is in charge is a high-risk move in a state that leans D.  He could go from 53% approval to 40% approval on that alone.