Will Trump accelerate the Democratic trend of the Sunbelt?

[MT Treasurer]

I think one of the most interesting things to watch in a Clinton vs. Trump race will be the trend map. I think Republicans are slowly but steadily losing support in the Solid South (VA, NC, SC, GA, FL, MS) due to demographic changes, while other Sunbelt states like CA and NM are either already a lost cause for them or headed that way. AZ, LA and OK are also trending Democratic.

Do you think the entire Sunbelt will trend Democratic with Trump as the nominee? I definitely think so. If the entire Southwest and Southeast trends Democratic, it probably means that the Midwest and most parts of the Northeast (with the exception of NH) will trend Republican. Does this tell us anything about the electoral map in 20 years and in which direction those states are headed?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

What do the percentages on this map represent?

And, he will help the Democrat trend in non-Southern areas of the Sun Belt.  The parts that are also in the South will trend Republican, if anything.

[Dr. Arch]

I'm not certain about the entire Sunbelt area, but I have a feeling that certainly: TX, NM, AZ, LA, MS, FL, NC, GA, and VA will fall under that push. I'm dubious about OK, TN, AL, and AR.

[Nym90]

What do the percentages on this map represent?

And, he will help the Democrat trend in non-Southern areas of the Sun Belt.  The parts that are also in the South will trend Republican, if anything.

I'm guessing population growth, but over what time frame I am not sure.

[Nyvin]

TN, AL, MS, LA, AR, and OK are probably not trending Democratic enough to make any significant difference in the long term (and certainly not short term either).   They all have very subpar population growth and no real big urban areas to drive the partisan change.  

The states that are slipping away from Republicans are the ones on the southern Atlantic coast, VA, NC, GA, and to a lesser extent SC.   The population growth in the urban areas is what's making them grow so fast, and almost all of it favors Democrats.   VA might be on the verge of leaning Democratic, and GA seems to be a time bomb for Republicans.

Texas will probably take forever...but gradually over time it will become competitive.   I doubt before 2024 though.

[/]

OK/AR/TN/AL will likely trend Republican, and MS/LA could go either way. Otherwise, seems fine.

[Adam Griffin]

Especially in states where black voters are 20% or more of the population, I worry about the effects of potentially reduced AA support and white working-class support in a scenario where Obama is no longer the candidate/Trump is...that might cancel out and then some any swing or trend we'd experience from suburban types rejecting Trump.

[ElectionsGuy]

Not in the deep south and upper south (OK, AR, TN), but in Florida, Virginia, and the southwest... yes.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

What Democratic trend?  The only places I can think of there that are trending D are New Mexico, SoCal, and possibly Arizona.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

MS is time bomb for Republicans because just a slight regression of GOP support among whites, would decimate the top line numbers for the Party. This is so bad that if just 75% of Whites voted Republican, the state would be closed or even slightly Democratic. And that is still drastically higher than the national average and is much closer to the average in most states.

With generational change, MS could rapidly move towards being 50-50 in just two or three cycles.

[Figueira]

Mississippi and Alaska are the two most underrated states for Democratic pickups in the next 20 years or so, IMO.

As for "the sun belt," I think it's too broad a term to be meaningful, but I think the Democrats' numbers will certainly rise in the states with a high number of Hispanics.

[Wiz in Wis]

There are, in all honesty, there are only two states in the whole of the Sun Belt where a solid shift towards the Democrats really matters: TX and FL. TX is still a decade or more away from competitive. However, FL is already competitive, and if it becomes lean D, then the electoral college is farked for the GOP. They cannot win without FL unless they completely realign the entire Midwest/Rust Belt.

[Xing]

Probably not in the interior South, but the trends in the Southwest will continue, and I could certainly see the coastal South (VA, NC, SC (maybe), GA, and FL) trend Democratic.