Would you be completely shocked if Cruz won tonight?
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  Would you be completely shocked if Cruz won tonight?		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Would you be completely shocked if Cruz won tonight?  (Read 800 times)
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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« on: May 03, 2016, 01:35:32 PM »
Discuss
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JRoby
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« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2016, 01:42:56 PM »
It ain't happening, bud.
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beaver2.0
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« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2016, 01:46:50 PM »
No, but I don't think its going to happen.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #3 on: May 03, 2016, 01:47:27 PM »
Quote from: beaver2.0 on May 03, 2016, 01:46:50 PM
No, but I don't think its going to happen.
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PeteB
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« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2016, 01:52:58 PM »
I would not be shocked by a Cruz victory, but agree with others that the probability of that is not high.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2016, 01:53:37 PM »
Quote from: beaver2.0 on May 03, 2016, 01:46:50 PM
No, but I don't think its going to happen.
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SillyAmerican
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« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2016, 01:53:56 PM »
Yes, but while I'd be completely shocked, it'd be nothing compared to what Bobby Knight would be feeling...

Smiley
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Crumpets
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« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2016, 01:56:28 PM »
No. I think Trump is prime to underperform tonight, and I suspect it'll be a single digit race.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2016, 01:58:41 PM »
I wouldn't be shocked, but I would be somewhat surprised.
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: May 03, 2016, 01:59:25 PM »
Somewhat, definitely more surprised than if Sanders won. Like others said, though, it doesn't look good for Cruz.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #10 on: May 03, 2016, 02:15:55 PM »
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #11 on: May 03, 2016, 02:17:38 PM »
Quote from: Thinking Crumpets Crumpet on May 03, 2016, 01:56:28 PM
No. I think Trump is prime to underperform tonight, and I suspect it'll be a single digit race.
Trump has been overperforming for the past few races.  He has the momentum and optics to either stay where he's at in the polls or even do a bit better.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #12 on: May 03, 2016, 02:25:40 PM »
Yep. I was more confident in Cruz's prospects tonight last week than I am now. Everything he's done to scramble for a win has absolutely reeked of desperation, and if anything these actions have hurt him.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #13 on: May 03, 2016, 02:25:58 PM »
Quote from: libertpaulian on May 03, 2016, 02:17:38 PM
Quote from: Thinking Crumpets Crumpet on May 03, 2016, 01:56:28 PM
No. I think Trump is prime to underperform tonight, and I suspect it'll be a single digit race.
Trump has been overperforming for the past few races.  He has the momentum and optics to either stay where he's at in the polls or even do a bit better.


The last few contests have been favorable to Trump since the beginning and demographics are one of the best determiners of how undecideds will break. The demographics of the Northeast are favorable to Trump, here they are not. Indiana is a fundamentally Cruz-type-candidate-friendly state, and Trump has underperformed states with similar profiles (see Iowa and Kentucky, Illinois was pretty much on the money). That tells me Trump has a ceiling here of around 45%. It's a tall order to beat someone with those numbers, but strategic voters leaving Kasich might bring Cruz reasonably close.
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Ljube
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« Reply #14 on: May 03, 2016, 02:31:20 PM »
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #15 on: May 03, 2016, 02:32:29 PM »
Quote from: Thinking Crumpets Crumpet on May 03, 2016, 02:25:58 PM
Quote from: libertpaulian on May 03, 2016, 02:17:38 PM
Quote from: Thinking Crumpets Crumpet on May 03, 2016, 01:56:28 PM
No. I think Trump is prime to underperform tonight, and I suspect it'll be a single digit race.
Trump has been overperforming for the past few races.  He has the momentum and optics to either stay where he's at in the polls or even do a bit better.


The last few contests have been favorable to Trump since the beginning and demographics are one of the best determiners of how undecideds will break. The demographics of the Northeast are favorable to Trump, here they are not. Indiana is a fundamentally Cruz-type-candidate-friendly state, and Trump has underperformed states with similar profiles (see Iowa and Kentucky, Illinois was pretty much on the money). That tells me Trump has a ceiling here of around 45%. It's a tall order to beat someone with those numbers, but strategic voters leaving Kasich might bring Cruz reasonably close.
Yes, but those states were earlier in the race.  The later in the contests we get, the more the people are going to want to get this over with.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #16 on: May 03, 2016, 02:35:11 PM »
Cruz lost when he acted desperate with the Kasich-alliance and Fiona VP
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: May 03, 2016, 03:12:11 PM »
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #18 on: May 03, 2016, 03:26:44 PM »
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Figueira
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« Reply #19 on: May 03, 2016, 03:29:39 PM »
Surprised, but not shocked. Polls are sometimes wrong.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #20 on: May 03, 2016, 03:32:58 PM »
Quote from: PeteB on May 03, 2016, 01:52:58 PM
I would not be shocked by a Cruz victory, but agree with others that the probability of that is not high.
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MyRescueKittehRocks
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« Reply #21 on: May 03, 2016, 03:35:49 PM »
Cruz will win
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Bigby
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« Reply #22 on: May 03, 2016, 03:38:15 PM »
I would be after the alliance with Kasich and the Fiorina VP pick.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #23 on: May 03, 2016, 03:39:14 PM »
Less surprised than I was when Bernie won Michigan.
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standwrand
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« Reply #24 on: May 03, 2016, 03:49:58 PM »
as shocked as I would have been if Rubio had won FL
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