Staffordshire South by-election

[Peter]

Rev. David Braid
Clause 28, Children's Protection Christian Democrats

Garry Bushell
English Democrats

Patrick Cormack
Conservative

Jo Crotty
Liberal Democrats

Adrian Davies
Freedom Party

Malcolm Hurst
UK Independence Party

Paul Kalinauckas
Labour

Kate Spohrer
Green Party - Against Airport Expansion

Before anybody corrects me, I know its not technically a by-election and is still officially a part of the general election.

UKIP could do quite well here as they polled just short of 4% here in 2001, similarly for the Referendum Party in 1997. Garry Bushell, who polled the best EDP result in the 05 election will also now contest this seat as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'd be amazed (but pleased) if Cormack doesn't win, the seat is full of commuter villages (in fact it basically *is* a collection of commuter villages...) and we all know how they tend to vote
All the County Council Districts up for election returned Tory councillers; again.
Big issue is that whole airport expansion row; Kalinauckas is running a suprisingly agressive campaign mostly based around opposing the expansion, but as all tuther candidates are opposed I doubt he'll get much out of it, he might come third due to symphathy voting for the LibDems.

Bit of history: Staffordshire South was formed out of two seats currently held by Labour; Cannock Chase (then Cannock) and Dudley South (then Brierley Hill) in 1974. Both of the old seats had had there once strong Labour loyalties weakend by the growth of the West Midlands commuter belt; Brierley Hill fell in 1959 and although Labour challenged strongly in 1966, it stayed Tory. In 1970, the high point of Powellism, it voted over 60% Tory. Cannock held out longer with Jennie Lee (Nye Bevan's widow) holding on until she was literally built out of her seat by suburban developments in 1970. The Tory who narrowly won the Cannock seat that year was Patrick Cormack. When the areas of the Cannock seat that voted for him were chopped off in boundary changes and paired with the most Tory parts of the Brierley Hill seat to form Staffordshire SW (then as now it has no real centre), oddly enough, he chose to run in Staffordshire SW rather than Cannock and it's been his personal fiefdom ever since.

[Joe Republic]

Rev. David Braid
Clause 28, Children's Protection Christian Democrats

He sounds like fun.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He sounds like fun.

It's *amazing* how often that guy loses £500 really

[minionofmidas]

Dudley is in the Metropolitan County, right?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Dudley is in the Metropolitan County, right?

It is now but wasn't, for boundary commision purposes, then; Dudley Council includes the Parliamentary constituencies of Dudley North (which includes most of Dudley proper), Dudley South, Stourbridge, and the Halesowen part of Halesowen & Rowley Regis.
Dudley proper was part of Worcestershire (as was Stourbridge). Brierley Hill itself (now in the Metro County) was in Staffordshire.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, the point was...the metro counties were used since the 1983 redistricting, not before. So they had to breakup the old constituency that year.

[Rural Radical]

Any By Election News ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not a lot really; both LibDems and Labour have been saying they could be on the verge of an historic upset, Cormack looks as pompous as ever... etc. etc.

[Kevinstat]

What caused this seat to become vacant?  Or to remain vacant after the recent nationwide General Election?  (All seats are vacant after Parliament is dissolved.)

[Rural Radical]

What caused this seat to become vacant? Or to remain vacant after the recent nationwide General Election? (All seats are vacant after Parliament is dissolved.)

The Liberal Democrat Candidate died a couple of weeks before the General Election.

[Rural Radical]

Not a lot really; both LibDems and Labour have been saying they could be on the verge of an historic upset, Cormack looks as pompous as ever... etc. etc.

Are the Tories able to lose this seat ? Are they worse off now compared to May 5th?

[Peter]

Not a lot really; both LibDems and Labour have been saying they could be on the verge of an historic upset, Cormack looks as pompous as ever... etc. etc.

Are the Tories able to lose this seat ? Are they worse off now compared to May 5th?

I have heard news of a likely good UKIP showing, and this historically comes at the expense of the Tories. A Tory majority of just short of 7,000 will likely not be overturned though. Expect UKIP to save their deposit.

[minionofmidas]

Date of this election?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

IIRC it's this thursday. Could be next thursday.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polling stations are open

[bullmoose88]

Tories are expected to hold, right?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tories are expected to hold, right?

Yep. I'd be stunned if Cormack has managed to lose this one.

[Democratic Hawk]

Hoping on this occasion that the non-Tory vote doesn't split and voters rally behind the candidate best positioned to defeat Cormack

Dave

[minionofmidas]

...except that nobody knows who that is...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any bets on how big Cormack's majority will be? 10%? 20%? 30%?

[Rural Radical]

Any bets on how big Cormack's majority will be? 10%? 20%? 30%?

Between 10-20%

[Peter]

I'll predict a Tory majority of 22%, owing mostly to a drop in the Labour vote. Lib Dems might make up a few % points, but not too many I don't think.

UKIP will save their deposit, the Greens nearly will, and everybody else will be fighting over who can make it into three figures.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another by-election today is attracting a lot of interest; a local council by-election in Barking & Dagenham. Barking to be precise. The Goresbrook ward. The BNP's only council seat in London, recently vacted by their only counciller...

[Lt. Gov. Immy]

Any idea when we'll get the declaration?  I see that the polls have closed...