Pulse Atlasia Polling (DFW retains 1 point lead) (user search)
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Author Topic: Pulse Atlasia Polling (DFW retains 1 point lead)  (Read 3002 times)
Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN
RGN08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,194
Philippines


Political Matrix
E: 2.31, S: 4.47
« on: May 03, 2016, 11:39:36 PM »
« edited: May 14, 2017, 04:22:21 AM by Lincoln AM RGN (Fed-NY) »

This snap poll will be open until 5/13/2017 (11:59 PM EST)
Results will be weighted 50% for region and 50% for party identification.

Region% will be based from the recent census
Party ID% will be based from the recent census

For the regional positions, the results will be party-weighted

https://goo.gl/forms/5ymuFANaKOrGxgNB2
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Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN
RGN08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,194
Philippines


Political Matrix
E: 2.31, S: 4.47
« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2016, 01:25:36 AM »
« Edited: May 14, 2017, 07:56:27 PM by Lincoln AM RGN (Fed-NY) »
TABLE OF POLLS
Net Keep Rating = ( Keep Rating - Replace Rating)






(presidential polls show weighted polling numbers, no net keep ratings.
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Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN
RGN08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,194
Philippines


Political Matrix
E: 2.31, S: 4.47
« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2016, 07:27:31 AM »
bump
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Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN
RGN08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,194
Philippines


Political Matrix
E: 2.31, S: 4.47
« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2016, 10:59:26 PM »
Quote from: Senator-elect Smith (Labor-MA) on May 05, 2016, 07:45:06 PM
By the way, I'm fairly sure the Transcendental Democrats are more or less dead.
It was based on a form that I made a year ago. So, I just left it out there just in case
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Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN
RGN08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,194
Philippines


Political Matrix
E: 2.31, S: 4.47
« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2016, 11:36:27 PM »
I am encouraging Mideast and Midwest voters to participate in this poll to achieve more accurate results.

For national positions, to achieve the national approval rating, the polls from the regions will be weighted according to the current population, not on the percentage of the participants by region.
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Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN
RGN08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,194
Philippines


Political Matrix
E: 2.31, S: 4.47
« Reply #5 on: May 09, 2016, 12:46:09 AM »
Poll is closed, thank you for participating
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Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN
RGN08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,194
Philippines


Political Matrix
E: 2.31, S: 4.47
« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2016, 09:17:32 AM »
Quote from: Senator Leinad on May 09, 2016, 11:18:21 PM
Quote from: Governor RGN (Fed-NY) on May 07, 2016, 11:36:27 PM
For national positions, to achieve the national approval rating, the polls from the regions will be weighted according to the current population, not on the percentage of the participants by region.

That's smart, but would it be possible to weigh it to partisan affiliation? Because that would probably be better.
Honestly, that would require a lot of work and manual counting to do based on the current structure. But I'll give it a try on the next poll
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Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN
RGN08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,194
Philippines


Political Matrix
E: 2.31, S: 4.47
« Reply #7 on: May 18, 2016, 10:21:14 AM »

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Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN
RGN08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,194
Philippines


Political Matrix
E: 2.31, S: 4.47
« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2016, 10:34:07 AM »
Erratum in the Constitution poll of the Midwest. Will post the corrected result later.
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Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN
RGN08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,194
Philippines


Political Matrix
E: 2.31, S: 4.47
« Reply #9 on: May 24, 2016, 06:58:40 PM »
We will resume polling during the senate election campaign. Thank you
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Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN
RGN08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,194
Philippines


Political Matrix
E: 2.31, S: 4.47
« Reply #10 on: April 28, 2017, 12:48:35 AM »
UP!!
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Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN
RGN08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,194
Philippines


Political Matrix
E: 2.31, S: 4.47
« Reply #11 on: April 28, 2017, 01:48:30 AM »
New reminders
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Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN
RGN08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,194
Philippines


Political Matrix
E: 2.31, S: 4.47
« Reply #12 on: April 28, 2017, 06:20:03 AM »
17 responses already! Keep it going folks! Smiley
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Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN
RGN08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,194
Philippines


Political Matrix
E: 2.31, S: 4.47
« Reply #13 on: April 28, 2017, 10:08:55 PM »
25 hours left to participate!
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Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN
RGN08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,194
Philippines


Political Matrix
E: 2.31, S: 4.47
« Reply #14 on: April 29, 2017, 10:19:12 PM »
I'm done computing all of the available results. If there will be no more incoming responses, I will be posting them after midnight EST.

These are the following tables that will be available later
Table 1: Weighted Results for National Officials / Presidential Race
Table 2: Region-Weighted Results for National Officials / Party-weighted Results for Regional Officials (FREMONT)
Table 3: Region-Weighted Results for National Officials / Party-weighted Results for Regional Officials (LINCOLN)
Table 4: Region-Weighted Results for National Officials / Party-weighted Results for Regional Officials (SOUTH)

Formula for weighing results for National Officials = (Region Weighted + Party Weighted) / 2\


Thank you for taking part in this snap poll. Hoping to serve you again in this way

- Pulse Atlasia Polls
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Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN
RGN08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,194
Philippines


Political Matrix
E: 2.31, S: 4.47
« Reply #15 on: April 29, 2017, 11:09:55 PM »
« Edited: April 29, 2017, 11:14:10 PM by Lincoln AM RGN (Fed-NY) »





40 participants Smiley
Margin of error = +/- 5%
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Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN
RGN08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,194
Philippines


Political Matrix
E: 2.31, S: 4.47
« Reply #16 on: April 30, 2017, 12:01:38 AM »
ERROR: Party Weighted result - Presidential race
Other ticket - 1%
None of the candidates - 1%

Clyde & DFW not affected
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Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN
RGN08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,194
Philippines


Political Matrix
E: 2.31, S: 4.47
« Reply #17 on: May 10, 2017, 09:21:49 PM »
NEW POLL above!
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Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN
RGN08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,194
Philippines


Political Matrix
E: 2.31, S: 4.47
« Reply #18 on: May 11, 2017, 04:48:19 PM »
Participate in our new poll. Until 5/13
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Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN
RGN08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,194
Philippines


Political Matrix
E: 2.31, S: 4.47
« Reply #19 on: May 12, 2017, 10:18:00 PM »
Participate in the poll, only roughly a day left!
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Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN
RGN08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,194
Philippines


Political Matrix
E: 2.31, S: 4.47
« Reply #20 on: May 14, 2017, 04:21:45 AM »





28 participants Smiley (but since the poll is weighted, still shows high accuracy)
Margin of error = +/- 7.5% (due to the low sample size)


Next survey: May 25 - 27, 2017
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Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN
RGN08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,194
Philippines


Political Matrix
E: 2.31, S: 4.47
« Reply #21 on: May 14, 2017, 04:23:22 AM »
I will be publishing a comparison of the last last poll to the latest poll

And starting in the next poll, the second senator will be also polled Smiley
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Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN
RGN08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,194
Philippines


Political Matrix
E: 2.31, S: 4.47
« Reply #22 on: May 14, 2017, 08:26:06 AM »
I will be posting the "Net Keep Rating"

The formula is (Keep rating - Replace Rating)

Here is the legend (predictions are predictions)

Negative Rating - Not favorable for re-election (Unfavorable rating)
0.00 - 24.99 - Average chances for re-election (Satisfactory Approval Rating)
25.00 - 49.99 - Leaning chances for re-election (Moderate Approval Rating)
50.00 - 74.99 - Likely Chances for re-election (Very Good Approval Rating)
75.00 - up - Solid chances for re-election (Excellent Approval Rating)
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Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN
RGN08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,194
Philippines


Political Matrix
E: 2.31, S: 4.47
« Reply #23 on: May 14, 2017, 07:44:56 PM »
Quote from: Chief Justice windjammer on May 14, 2017, 05:40:52 PM
Btw, polls have always been bulsh**t and will always be.

After looking from the Feb. 2017 polls, I've sought a method on how to minimize the high discrepancy of the surveys versus the real results. The 50-50 be also a test to see if the methods worked.
What do you mean by that?
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