Wherein Trump ruins the political careers of the GOP front bench

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Jeb! the Bush family scion: political career ended by Trump
Rubio the GOP's Great Hispanic Hope: political career ended by Trump
Cruz the darling of the conservative base: presidential ambitions humiliated by Trump

(Walker and Rand also embarrassed themselves, but that wasn't anything to do with Trump)

Really quite impressive.

[IceSpear]

Lavenous Little Marco and Lyin Ted are both going to run again in 2020/2024.

[Doimper]

Lavenous Little Marco and Lyin Ted are both going to run again in 2020/2024.

I really think Rubio's career is dead. He's already stated he has no plans to run for governor, and that debacle with Christie was humiliating.

Cruz could very well run, but I suspect that he's not going to have much more success than Santorum or Huckabee did after their moment in the sun.

[Wisconsin+17]

After Trump gets smoked in the General Election, I can't see Cruz not running in 2020.

It will also be a realigning election.

[Doimper]

After Trump gets smoked in the General Election, I can't see Cruz not running in 2020.

It will also be a realigning election.

You think 2020 is going to be a realigning election?

I think it's this one - Trump's something entirely new.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Yes. Reagan came after the Peanut farmer defeated Ford in a closely contested primary that went the distance.

Look at the ages of the candidates, Hillary is over 70, so is Trump. Assuming Hillary doesn't die in office (a real possibility given her age), there will be a realignment when finally, someone who's not a boomer breaks through the boomer barrier.

This was a retrenchment, boomers deciding that they didn't want to hand down the reins.

Trump is nothing new. Same tired old scene we went through with Romney.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Trump has proved that Cruz is too conservative to ever win the nomination.

If moderate Republicans and the Establishment will refuse to back him against Donald Trump, he will never be President.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Then the GOP is done as an effective party. No moderate in the GOP has won in a very, very long time. Moderates cling to the belief that if they adopt every single democrat belief that they can beat the democrats. It's not happening.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

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Then the GOP is done as an effective party. No moderate in the GOP has won in a very, very long time. Moderates cling to the belief that if they adopt every single democrat belief that they can beat the democrats. It's not happening.

Uh what?

[Wisconsin+17]

Romney lost, McCain lost, Trump will lose.

Who was the last GOP winning moderate?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Romney lost, McCain lost, Trump will lose.

Who was the last GOP winning moderate?

So your premise is that Huckabee, Santorum and Cruz would have done/will do better in the general despite losing handily among REPUBLICAN voters in the primary?

[Wisconsin+17]

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They would have done better in the general, yes. There's a lot of disaffected conservatives who have sat out.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Romney lost, McCain lost, Trump will lose.

Who was the last GOP winning moderate?

romney, mccain, and trump aren't "moderates", wtf are you smoking?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

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They would have done better in the general, yes. There's a lot of disaffected conservatives who have sat out.

And even more disaffected moderate Republicans would have sat out if Cruz were nominated. Let alone the Trump supporters.

If conservative candidates are more acceptable to the Republican party than "moderates", why do they keep losing?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

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Yes. Reagan came after the Peanut farmer defeated Ford in a closely contested primary that went the distance.

Look at the ages of the candidates, Hillary is over 70, so is Trump. Assuming Hillary doesn't die in office (a real possibility given her age), there will be a realignment when finally, someone who's not a boomer breaks through the boomer barrier.

This was a retrenchment, boomers deciding that they didn't want to hand down the reins.

Trump is nothing new. Same tired old scene we went through with Romney.

You do realize that Reagan was also a retrenchment age wise. He was older than Carter, Ford, Nixon and JFK, and just a few years younger than LBJ. And was succeeded by another Greatest Generation President in Bush 41. Reagan was the second oldest Greatest Generation President and was elected towards the end of their run of the Presidency, but was followed by another late generation President. Trump would narrowly be the oldest Boomer Generation President. Clinton would be second third out of four.

Also considering the size of the boomer generation and its dominance of the Political class, it would not be surprising if Generation X got skipped the same way there were no Silent Generation Presidents. Remember Obama is only in his 50's and late boomers such as him, will not turn 60 until the 2020's. Assuming 69 is the cuttoff, late Baby Boomers will be viable until the 2032 Presidential Election, by which time, the first Millenials will be turning 50.

If Trump wins, a Democrat likely wins in 2020. I have a hunch who that Democrat is and he is a late boomer like Obama. He could serve two terms taking us to 2028. When there should be plenty of Millenial candidates and that generation is better positioned for the generational change because of their numbers. Also that would give the boomers a 36 year run (1992-2028). Just slightly longer than the Greatest Generations 32 year run (1960-1992).

If Clinton wins, the Republicans with the best shot of beating her were born in the 50's.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Who's the last moderate republican who's won?

[Wisconsin+17]

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Yes, I'm aware of that. I'm also aware that it will be, since 1992, a full 28 years (and counting). It's hilarious to hear boomers going on about how the restriction for voting should be 50. This is Trump's major base right now - boomer men over 50 who aren't happy about any of the things they see coming out, and they certainly aren't going to vote Cruz. This is the generation that's been fed wholly on TV media, celebrities, etc. 2009 was their first crack at the Supreme court, and it's no surprise that it's followed up by Oberfell.

They are not very religious, despise the religious right, but don't like Obama. Seeing a lot of grousing against 'free trade', etc. But the third rail, is of course, social security by which they expect the government largesse to support all of them.

This is a 'kick the can' election - boomers voting en masse to kick the can down the road rather than actually deal with the problems coming up ahead. Trump is simple. Tells them what they want to hear and goes from there. They feel like they can trust him because he's like them. Nothing more nor less.

Problem is this. All the younger folks, younger republicans have started to see the writing on the wall, that taxes are going to be going up, and that their jobs are not going to be as solid, or pay as well as it did for boomers. They are seeing an astronomical increase in housing prices (driven by Boomers spending it all now).

This is the demographic driving Cruz, along with pretty much everyone who goes to church weekly, everyone younger than 50 who's in favor of cutting taxes.

In short, Boomers are going to make sure that they get theirs through the political process. They aren't happy with the 'passing of the torch' and are about the last generation to let it go, especially because they are fighting the same battles they were fighting in the 60s.

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36 years is an incredibly long time. I don't see it. Neither Trump nor Hillary is particularly healthy. Now, it's true we could get yet another boomer nominee next time, and I wouldn't be surprised at that - but if the asteroid hits against Trump, we'll get that realigning election.

What the GOP needs to be taking a hard look at is another Bull Moose. Same age range. You really saw that with Cruz vs Trump.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Ben Kenobi, things are only going to get worse for the religious right.


Millenials are the most secular generation in history. They are larger than Baby Boomers now and will never vote for a Cruz.

[MK]

Ben Kenobi, things are only going to get worse for the religious right.


Millenials are the most secular generation in history. They are larger than Baby Boomers now and will never vote for a Cruz.

Pretty much.  Cruz is the wrong type of candidate for this generation.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Secular millennials are Democrats. Cruz was the choice of the under 50 GOP crowd for the reasons outlined above.

Under 50 GOP is really getting hammered by the lack of jobs and the erosion of the economy under Obama. Boomers by and large are insulated.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

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Secular millennials are Democrats. Cruz was the choice of the under 50 GOP crowd for the reasons outlined above.

Under 50 GOP is really getting hammered by the lack of jobs and the erosion of the economy under Obama. Boomers by and large are insulated.

If there is anyone who is insulated it is the movement conservative types in DC and the higher end evangelicals who propped up Rubio and moved over to Cruz to stop Trump. They have never experienced the recession and are perfectly fine voting for candidates and policies that drowned other people into an economic vat of acide.

Trump voters have seen their jobs shipped overseas and immigration policies that flood already competitive downmarket labor markets. Who the hell is more sheltered from reality?

[Classic Conservative]

Cruz was trying to be Reagan in '76 by nominating Carly. He will run in 2020 more than likely.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

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Who's the last moderate republican who's won?

Reagan?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

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Who's the last moderate republican who's won?

Reagan?

By his definitions, Bush 41.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

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Who's the last moderate republican who's won?

According to you, all of the last 3 GOP presidential candidates.