Why Trump is - and always has been - the best hope for the GOP in November

[All Along The Watchtower]

Trump, as we all know now, has been the winner in a primary season in which turnout on the Republican side has been quite high. However, we must remember that primary voters are still only a relatively small part of the overall electorate. Just think of how many more voters - Republicans, along with many Independents and a certain segment of (white) Democrats - who only pay attention to the general election campaign will soon be marveling at Trump in all of his glory.

This is why TRUMP is the strongest Republican candidate against the Democratic nominee (whomever she will be   ) - he is the only one who can mobilize masses of Low-Information (White) Voters ("I love the poorly educated!"), most of whom have extremely incoherent and inconsistent views in terms of ideology (e.g. "We need universal health care, but we also need a new Chinese Exclusion Act"). Furthermore, Trump's celebrity/household name status and tremendous levels of energy will also be quite attractive to many general election voters, and who doesn't love a winner?  Most people, of course, don't vote based on issues or ideology - America isn't the Atlas Forum.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

There are three groups of voters who decide every Presidential election.

1. The Democratic coalition of urban minorities, progressives, and labor unions.
2. The GOP coalition of southern and western rural voters, white males, and conservative Christians
3. Suburban independent voters in swing states.

The first is ROCK SOLID.  This is the group responsible for overcoming the Sanders insurgency and seeing Clinton through to the nomination, and they will show up for Clinton in November.  They represent a solid 35% of the electorate.  Actually, they are growing, due to changing demographics.

The second group is in TOTAL DISARRAY.  Half of them hate Trump and want nothing to do with him, half of them see him as their personal savior.

The third group?  You really think they are going to look at Donald J. Trump and say, "him, he's our guy?"

The math doesn't add up for Trump.

[Santander]

The first is ROCK SOLID.  This is the group responsible for overcoming the Sanders insurgency and seeing Clinton through to the nomination, and they will show up for Clinton in November.  They represent a solid 35% of the electorate.  Actually, they are growing, due to changing demographics.

Right, because blue-collar union members are so enthusiastic about Hillary Clinton... Clinton will win the upscale union vote like nurses, college faculty, government employees, pilots, etc. but Trump will win over plenty of truck drivers, steelworkers, auto workers, prison guards, etc. who are registered Democrats but not ideologically married to Democratic orthodoxy.

[cowboys5xsbs]

There are three groups of voters who decide every Presidential election.

1. The Democratic coalition of urban minorities, progressives, and labor unions.
2. The GOP coalition of southern and western rural voters, white males, and conservative Christians
3. Suburban independent voters in swing states.

The first is ROCK SOLID.  This is the group responsible for overcoming the Sanders insurgency and seeing Clinton through to the nomination, and they will show up for Clinton in November.  They represent a solid 35% of the electorate.  Actually, they are growing, due to changing demographics.

The second group is in TOTAL DISARRAY.  Half of them hate Trump and want nothing to do with him, half of them see him as their personal savior.

The third group?  You really think they are going to look at Donald J. Trump and say, "him, he's our guy?"

The math doesn't add up for Trump.

Because the democratic party is not split between progressive and whatever Hollary is trying to be

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The first is ROCK SOLID.  This is the group responsible for overcoming the Sanders insurgency and seeing Clinton through to the nomination, and they will show up for Clinton in November.  They represent a solid 35% of the electorate.  Actually, they are growing, due to changing demographics.

Right, because blue-collar union members are so enthusiastic about Hillary Clinton... Clinton will win the upscale union vote like nurses, college faculty, government employees, pilots, etc. but Trump will win over plenty of truck drivers, steelworkers, auto workers, prison guards, etc. who are registered Democrats but not ideologically married to Democratic orthodoxy.

Unfortunately, free trade will hurt her.  This is why Trump has a fighting chance in Michigan.

[Torie]

He's certainly not the best hope for the nation. That is all that matters to me.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

The first is ROCK SOLID.  This is the group responsible for overcoming the Sanders insurgency and seeing Clinton through to the nomination, and they will show up for Clinton in November.  They represent a solid 35% of the electorate.  Actually, they are growing, due to changing demographics.

Right, because blue-collar union members are so enthusiastic about Hillary Clinton... Clinton will win the upscale union vote like nurses, college faculty, government employees, pilots, etc. but Trump will win over plenty of truck drivers, steelworkers, auto workers, prison guards, etc. who are registered Democrats but not ideologically married to Democratic orthodoxy.

How do I put this nicely.  Uh, this is an oversold myth.  A really bad one.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The first is ROCK SOLID.  This is the group responsible for overcoming the Sanders insurgency and seeing Clinton through to the nomination, and they will show up for Clinton in November.  They represent a solid 35% of the electorate.  Actually, they are growing, due to changing demographics.

Right, because blue-collar union members are so enthusiastic about Hillary Clinton... Clinton will win the upscale union vote like nurses, college faculty, government employees, pilots, etc. but Trump will win over plenty of truck drivers, steelworkers, auto workers, prison guards, etc. who are registered Democrats but not ideologically married to Democratic orthodoxy.

How do I put this nicely.  Uh, this is an oversold myth.  A really bad one.

Citing  Silver articles about Trump.  You're new here, aren't you .

I think he's right, though, and the Dem coalition will be MUCH more unified than the GOP one.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

The first is ROCK SOLID.  This is the group responsible for overcoming the Sanders insurgency and seeing Clinton through to the nomination, and they will show up for Clinton in November.  They represent a solid 35% of the electorate.  Actually, they are growing, due to changing demographics.

Right, because blue-collar union members are so enthusiastic about Hillary Clinton... Clinton will win the upscale union vote like nurses, college faculty, government employees, pilots, etc. but Trump will win over plenty of truck drivers, steelworkers, auto workers, prison guards, etc. who are registered Democrats but not ideologically married to Democratic orthodoxy.

How do I put this nicely.  Uh, this is an oversold myth.  A really bad one.

Citing  Silver articles about Trump.  You're new here, aren't you .

I think he's right, though, and the Dem coalition will be MUCH more unified than the GOP one.

Nah.  Atlas veteran on a new account.  We'll just have to wait and see if Silver can redeem himself this year.

[Badger]

The first is ROCK SOLID.  This is the group responsible for overcoming the Sanders insurgency and seeing Clinton through to the nomination, and they will show up for Clinton in November.  They represent a solid 35% of the electorate.  Actually, they are growing, due to changing demographics.

Right, because blue-collar union members are so enthusiastic about Hillary Clinton... Clinton will win the upscale union vote like nurses, college faculty, government employees, pilots, etc. but Trump will win over plenty of truck drivers, steelworkers, auto workers, prison guards, etc. who are registered Democrats but not ideologically married to Democratic orthodoxy.

How do I put this nicely.  Uh, this is an oversold myth.  A really bad one.

Citing  Silver articles about Trump.  You're new here, aren't you .

I think he's right, though, and the Dem coalition will be MUCH more unified than the GOP one.

Nah.  Atlas veteran on a new account.  We'll just have to wait and see if Silver can redeem himself this year.

Silver sucked rocks this year with prognostication, but this article is statistically well documented.

[Wisconsin+17]

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This, exactly this. Trump showed his true colors by condemning prolifers. He'll have to try winning without us.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Will his trials for fraud energize voters too?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

You're new here, aren't you .

He's more like General Charles Lee, who spent a year in British captivity, thus missing the changes that had taken place to the Continental Army and therefore failed at the Battle of Monmouth, because he underestimated his own troops.

[Blair]

The first is ROCK SOLID.  This is the group responsible for overcoming the Sanders insurgency and seeing Clinton through to the nomination, and they will show up for Clinton in November.  They represent a solid 35% of the electorate.  Actually, they are growing, due to changing demographics.

but Trump will win over plenty of truck drivers, steelworkers, auto workers, prison guards, etc. who are registered Democrats but not ideologically married to Democratic orthodoxy.

Yeah because they were going to vote for the black socialist

[DIXIECRAT]

The first is ROCK SOLID.  This is the group responsible for overcoming the Sanders insurgency and seeing Clinton through to the nomination, and they will show up for Clinton in November.  They represent a solid 35% of the electorate.  Actually, they are growing, due to changing demographics.

Right, because blue-collar union members are so enthusiastic about Hillary Clinton... Clinton will win the upscale union vote like nurses, college faculty, government employees, pilots, etc. but Trump will win over plenty of truck drivers, steelworkers, auto workers, prison guards, etc. who are registered Democrats but not ideologically married to Democratic orthodoxy.

How do I put this nicely.  Uh, this is an oversold myth. A really bad one.

The median blue-collar union member is probably wealthier than the median American. I guess most of the union vote in these primaries went for either Sanders or Trump.

[Nym90]

The first is ROCK SOLID.  This is the group responsible for overcoming the Sanders insurgency and seeing Clinton through to the nomination, and they will show up for Clinton in November.  They represent a solid 35% of the electorate.  Actually, they are growing, due to changing demographics.

but Trump will win over plenty of truck drivers, steelworkers, auto workers, prison guards, etc. who are registered Democrats but not ideologically married to Democratic orthodoxy.

Yeah because they were going to vote for the black socialist

Exactly. It's really hard to visualize how anyone who voted for Obama twice switches to Trump.

[SillyAmerican]

The first is ROCK SOLID.  This is the group responsible for overcoming the Sanders insurgency and seeing Clinton through to the nomination, and they will show up for Clinton in November.  They represent a solid 35% of the electorate.  Actually, they are growing, due to changing demographics.

Right, because blue-collar union members are so enthusiastic about Hillary Clinton... Clinton will win the upscale union vote like nurses, college faculty, government employees, pilots, etc. but Trump will win over plenty of truck drivers, steelworkers, auto workers, prison guards, etc. who are registered Democrats but not ideologically married to Democratic orthodoxy.

Yeah. Remember, the second group may not be ROCK SOLID, but they were apparently solid enough for Donald Trump to win the GOP nomination, something that was completely outside the realm of possibility a few months ago. Feel free to downplay Trump all you want, but don't be surprised if he doesn't color within the lines...