Time to talk about TRUMP's impact

[Mr. Illini]

I've been ignoring this topic for awhile as the Presidential process sorts itself out. More of my focus was put on how a TRUMP vs a Cruz nomination would impact the party's chance in the Presidential.

Now that it's presumptive, let's talk about how the TRUMP nomination will impact the race for the Senate.

For my state of Illinois, I really do think Kirk is finished. He may have been regardless, but this essentially seals it in my opinion. He last won in a mid term year when turnout was low. Assuming the TRUMP candidacy goes as it has, I would expect low-turnout groups to turnout in 2008-or-above levels. Additionally, you will have some Republicans that vote Hillary/Kirk. He was going to get these votes anyway, but I see a number of independents in suburban areas (think Obama/Obama/Rauner voters) checking blue all the way in protest. These people already feel alienated by the GOP (and have for about 8 years) and a TRUMP nomination will further isolate and outrage them.

Give me your thoughts.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ayotte endorsed Trump too. I think Dems will net 51 and possible another seat.  Any of the 272 including OH, these Senators are endangered

[publicunofficial]

California could be very interesting. With Trump at the top of the ticket, and a D-on-D race likely for Senate, Republican turnout could plummet while Latino turnout increases.

CA-10, CA-21, and CA-25 were already on the table, but CA-39 and CA-49 could be interesting as well. CA-07 and CA-24, two of the only handfull House races where Democrats look vulnerable, could shift closer to being Safe D.

[Nyvin]

Sabato updated the Senate map today, but there's no dialog why.

He has PA, OH, FL, NH, NV all as tossups now.    WI and IL are still lean Dem.   NC, MO, and AZ lean GOP.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-senate/

I'm pretty sure the update was due to Trump being the nominee.

[publicunofficial]

Sabato updated the Senate map today, but there's no dialog why.

He has PA, OH, FL, NH, NV all as tossups now.    WI and IL are still lean Dem.   NC, MO, and AZ lean GOP.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-senate/

I'm pretty sure the update was due to Trump being the nominee.

That change was made a while ago. Since April in fact.

[publicunofficial]

Very good down-ballot results for the GOP, but I think you'll see strong primary challenges and a different breed of Republicans this year than in previous years.

Filing deadlines are almost here, and right now very few incumbents are facing strong primary challenges. Plus, Trump didn't help any of the primary insurgents downballot in the states he already won.


The only Reps. facing strong primary challenges right now are Renee Elmers (from a fellow Rep.), Tim Hueselkamp (due to not supporting pro-farm legislation), Doug Lamborn (Unpopularity with local party), Steve King (for being crazy), Frank Guinta (Corruption), Scott DesJarlais (Ethics issues), Doug Collins (Paul Broun wants to come back to Congress), and Barry Loudermilk.

None of these primary challenges are attempting to follow Trump's coattails.