Don't Count Out Trump At All
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  Don't Count Out Trump At All
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Author Topic: Don't Count Out Trump At All  (Read 523 times)
Free Bird
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Junior Chimp
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« on: May 04, 2016, 01:56:42 PM »

Now that it's over I can say that. Ask Governors David Vitter, Mike Michaud, Paul Davis, Tom Foley, Charlie Crist, and Senators Kay Hagan, Mark Pryor, Ted Stevens, Mike Castle, Dick Lugar, and Mark Uterus what it's like to take early polls as any good indication. He hasn't even started on her exclusively. The enthusiasm just isn't with her, and the energy that there is is with Donald. And this is coming from someone that doesn't even like him.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2016, 01:58:52 PM »

Of course it's not over, but assuming Democrats don't take victory for granted, Trump is a longshot to say the least.
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Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2016, 02:02:35 PM »

Of course it's not over, but assuming Democrats don't take victory for granted, Trump is a longshot to say the least.

All I'm saying is to not take polls seriously for now. ANY premature call is a bad thing, but equally bad if not worse is not considering that polls can and do change. The partisan divide is so pronounced now that there is no way it will be as much of a blowout as the current forecasts predict, so citing CURRENT polls as your reasoning and getting cocky because of it is uninformed, to say the least.
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Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2016, 02:05:33 PM »

And I know that the Democrats here if it's even will say that she will win. They WANT her to win and vice versa for the GOP. Confirmation bias is a real thing, and it's a good feeling seeing your candidate ahead. But reality and your feelings are very different very often.
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Mr. Reactionary
blackraisin
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« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2016, 02:27:30 PM »

Muh bloo wall
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RJEvans
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« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2016, 02:28:31 PM »

Fun fact that I just tweeted.

In national polls Trump has been at 40% +/-1 in 13/20 most recent polls. In the other 7, he averaged 38%. Clinton has cracked 50% in 10/20.

In the last 20 polls, Clinton averages 48.4. Trump averages 39.6. I wonder if Trump has a national ceiling of around 43-45% with a Clinton floor of 45-47%.
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Figueira
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« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2016, 02:30:17 PM »

I don't think we should count out Trump. But he's in just about the worst possible position for a Republican nominee.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2016, 02:33:28 PM »

After what happened in 2008, I don't think that Hillary will count out anything.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2016, 02:33:55 PM »

Speaking as someone who would actually rather have Trump in the white house than Clinton, I don't see any reason why Trump could win. The 'industrial Midwest' that everyone in the media is talking about? Ha. Good luck with that when he's losing suburbanites by double digits. Florida? Virginia? Forget it.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2016, 02:41:42 PM »

Let's face it, most of us underestimated Trump since day one. Each week there was that annoying "oh, Trump is now past his peak" and just look where we are now.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
Runeghost
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« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2016, 02:48:27 PM »

While I agree that we (and more importantly the Democratic nominee and the DNC) shouldn't consider Trump finished until he's been proper staked, wrapped in garlic, had his mouth stuffed with T-bills, and been buried in solid concrete seventeen feet under a newly constructed cloverleaf he's going into the general in a very poor position.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #11 on: May 04, 2016, 02:51:41 PM »

Let's face it, most of us underestimated Trump since day one. Each week there was that annoying "oh, Trump is now past his peak" and just look where we are now.

We keep translating what happened in the primary into the general though. This is a completely different ballgame. He needs to severely change his image among the public in the next six months if he wants a shot at winning. We don't know what a general election campaign will be like, but I think we can say that Trump is at a major disadvantage according to all evidence for the temporary characterization.
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ag
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« Reply #12 on: May 04, 2016, 02:51:54 PM »

I am definitely not counting him out. Seriously considering getting on prozac or valium between now and November - I might not be able to stand the tension otherwise.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #13 on: May 04, 2016, 02:53:42 PM »

I am definitely not counting him out. Seriously considering getting on prozac or valium between now and November - I might not be able to stand the tension otherwise.

Don't worry. He'll just build his wall to prevent you from crossing the border Smiley
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ag
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« Reply #14 on: May 04, 2016, 02:57:43 PM »
« Edited: May 04, 2016, 02:59:49 PM by ag »

I am definitely not counting him out. Seriously considering getting on prozac or valium between now and November - I might not be able to stand the tension otherwise.

Don't worry. He'll just build his wall to prevent you from crossing the border Smiley

If he gets to be president, I will not travel to the US for the duration. I will also move my savings out to some more secure place.

I am scheduled to go recruiting people for our department in early January. If Trump wins, perhaps, I could offer some Americans a way to get out for the duration of the disaster as well.
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Free Bird
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #15 on: May 04, 2016, 02:59:11 PM »

Let's face it, most of us underestimated Trump since day one. Each week there was that annoying "oh, Trump is now past his peak" and just look where we are now.

We keep translating what happened in the primary into the general though. This is a completely different ballgame. He needs to severely change his image among the public in the next six months if he wants a shot at winning. We don't know what a general election campaign will be like, but I think we can say that Trump is at a major disadvantage according to all evidence for the temporary characterization.

He has a disadvantage AT THE MOMENT. My main point is that lots can and do change in 6 months
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #16 on: May 04, 2016, 03:06:45 PM »

I don't believe the polls at all right now.  I believe things will break much, much worse for Trump.

1. This GOP primary season was a perfect storm, tailor-made for Trump.
2. Primary voters are NOT general election voters.
3. Cold reality and buyer's remorse has not set in on the right, nor have suburbanites and independents really weighed the propects of a Trump presidency.
4. Obama's six-month-long viscous character assassination of Trump has not yet begun.
5. The left is chipped and dinged.  The right is completely fractured.
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