Don't Count Out Trump At All

[Free Bird]

Now that it's over I can say that. Ask Governors David Vitter, Mike Michaud, Paul Davis, Tom Foley, Charlie Crist, and Senators Kay Hagan, Mark Pryor, Ted Stevens, Mike Castle, Dick Lugar, and Mark Uterus what it's like to take early polls as any good indication. He hasn't even started on her exclusively. The enthusiasm just isn't with her, and the energy that there is is with Donald. And this is coming from someone that doesn't even like him.

[Free Bird]

Of course it's not over, but assuming Democrats don't take victory for granted, Trump is a longshot to say the least.

All I'm saying is to not take polls seriously for now. ANY premature call is a bad thing, but equally bad if not worse is not considering that polls can and do change. The partisan divide is so pronounced now that there is no way it will be as much of a blowout as the current forecasts predict, so citing CURRENT polls as your reasoning and getting cocky because of it is uninformed, to say the least.

[Free Bird]

And I know that the Democrats here if it's even will say that she will win. They WANT her to win and vice versa for the GOP. Confirmation bias is a real thing, and it's a good feeling seeing your candidate ahead. But reality and your feelings are very different very often.

[Free Bird]

Let's face it, most of us underestimated Trump since day one. Each week there was that annoying "oh, Trump is now past his peak" and just look where we are now.

We keep translating what happened in the primary into the general though. This is a completely different ballgame. He needs to severely change his image among the public in the next six months if he wants a shot at winning. We don't know what a general election campaign will be like, but I think we can say that Trump is at a major disadvantage according to all evidence for the temporary characterization.

He has a disadvantage AT THE MOMENT. My main point is that lots can and do change in 6 months