WV-PPP (2018 SEN): Manchin leads McKinley by 10

[MT Treasurer]

Joe Manchin (D): 46%
David McKinley (R): 36%

Capito approval rating: 51/31 (+20)
Manchin approval rating: 41/42 (-1)
Earl Ray Tomblin approval rating: 35/43 (-8)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_WV_50416.pdf

It was me who told them to test this match-up.

[This account no longer in use.]

Tell them to poll NH women on how angry they are.

[Figueira]

A lot can happen in two and a half years, but I guess I can use this when people say that Manchin Will Definitely Lose because R trend and midterm.

[IceSpear]

Leading years in advance of the election worked out great for Mark Pryor.

Manchin will either retire or get Blanched. You heard it here first.

Also, even this poll isn't great for him. He's not popular at all, which you're going to need to be to survive in a state so heavily against your party. His "lead" is likely more a function of name recognition than anything else. He will see the writing on the wall and retire.

[/]

I thought Manchin was invincible...

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Leading years in advance of the election worked out great for Mark Pryor.

Manchin will either retire or get Blanched. You heard it here first.

Also, even this poll isn't great for him. He's not popular at all, which you're going to need to be to survive in a state so heavily against your party. His "lead" is likely more a function of name recognition than anything else. He will see the writing on the wall and retire.

There's a third option that might wind up being what happens: He'll switch parties.

[IceSpear]

Leading years in advance of the election worked out great for Mark Pryor.

Manchin will either retire or get Blanched. You heard it here first.

Also, even this poll isn't great for him. He's not popular at all, which you're going to need to be to survive in a state so heavily against your party. His "lead" is likely more a function of name recognition than anything else. He will see the writing on the wall and retire.

There's a third option that might wind up being what happens: He'll switch parties.

I doubt it. Then he'd just get Griffith'd/Specter'd in the primary.

[Heisenberg]

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David McKinley?
Favorable 21%
Unfavorable 18%
Not sure 60%
Wow.  McKinley may be able to Blanche Manchin if 2018 becomes a 2010/2014-type year.  If he can build up name recognition, I think he can do it.  I bet much of the 60% will like him, many of them either don't know who he is or don't know enough about him.  Also, TNVolunteer, where did you ask them.  I may make some suggestions soon, if it appears they are reasonable.

[Figueira]

Leading years in advance of the election worked out great for Mark Pryor.

Manchin will either retire or get Blanched. You heard it here first.

Also, even this poll isn't great for him. He's not popular at all, which you're going to need to be to survive in a state so heavily against your party. His "lead" is likely more a function of name recognition than anything else. He will see the writing on the wall and retire.

Probably should have looked more closely at the poll. You're right.

[windjammer]

Manchin is really in deep trouble. His approval rating isn't good enough, he's even in negative territories, I think he will lose in 2018, not by a blanching margin, but something like by 10 points.

[publicunofficial]

"Blanched" should be an auto-ban phrase.

[Heisenberg]

"Blanched" should be an auto-ban phrase.

My definition of Blanched:  Incumbent Senator gets defeated for reelection in a Senate race by a larger than expected margin, and in a state that leans heavily against his or her party at the presidential level.  My definition is very different from most people's, but that's what I meant.

[IceSpear]

"Blanched" should be an auto-ban phrase.

Do you prefer Pryored? Or Santorumed?

[Figueira]

So, I think that Manchin will lose unless the Democrats find some way to solve their midterm problem.

[Xing]

Looks like WV will complete its transition to a solidly Republican state at every level in 2018, just like AR did in 2014.

[Kingpoleon]

I'd like to see him polled against Alexander Mooney or Patrick Morrisey.

[Heisenberg]

I'd like to see him polled against Alexander Mooney or Patrick Morrisey.

McKinley or Morrisey would be stronger.  McKinley has been in Congress for sometime, although Morrisey has won statewide before (and alongside Manchin).  I don't think Mooney will run, maybe a few cycles later when there's an open seat and he gains experience in the House.

[IceSpear]

Carpetbagger Mooney is the one person Manchin would have a chance at beating.

[ElectionsGuy]

Looks like Manchin will be the Democratic Party's last straw here.

[Kingpoleon]

I'd like to see him polled against Alexander Mooney or Patrick Morrisey.

McKinley or Morrisey would be stronger.  McKinley has been in Congress for sometime, although Morrisey has won statewide before (and alongside Manchin).  I don't think Mooney will run, maybe a few cycles later when there's an open seat and he gains experience in the House.

Mooney won statewide GOP Chair in Maryland. He knows how to run a statewide campaign and staff it properly. He's younger than either of them, more energetic, and he is pretty moderate. Two terms in the House is quite enough experience for the Senate, in my opinion. In 2020, an incumbent Republican Governor and Senator are running for re-election. Should he hope to run for Governor in 2024, Senator in 2024/2026(if Capito retires after two terms/McKinley retires after one term), Governor in 2028, or Senator in 2018? Pretty obvious choice to me.

Carpetbagger Mooney is the one person Manchin would have a chance at beating.

Are you just a Democratic hack?

Mooney is actually well liked and pretty young. Just because he moved states doesn't make him an automatic HP. Mooney is by far the most moderate of the three. IIRC, all three Republican Representatives are in the Mainstreet Partnership, so they probably won't be any worse than Capito. Capito and Manchin are two of the best Senators in the Senate, IMO.

[This account no longer in use.]

Looks like Manchin will be the Democratic Party's last straw here.

It's surprising, in a way. West Virginia used to be a huge Democratic stronghold. Now the state Democrats are more or less led by Joe Manchin and Jim Justice alone.

[IceSpear]

I'd like to see him polled against Alexander Mooney or Patrick Morrisey.

McKinley or Morrisey would be stronger.  McKinley has been in Congress for sometime, although Morrisey has won statewide before (and alongside Manchin).  I don't think Mooney will run, maybe a few cycles later when there's an open seat and he gains experience in the House.

Mooney won statewide GOP Chair in Maryland. He knows how to run a statewide campaign and staff it properly. He's younger than either of them, more energetic, and he is pretty moderate. Two terms in the House is quite enough experience for the Senate, in my opinion. In 2020, an incumbent Republican Governor and Senator are running for re-election. Should he hope to run for Governor in 2024, Senator in 2024/2026(if Capito retires after two terms/McKinley retires after one term), Governor in 2028, or Senator in 2018? Pretty obvious choice to me.

Carpetbagger Mooney is the one person Manchin would have a chance at beating.

Are you just a Democratic hack?

Mooney is actually well liked and pretty young. Just because he moved states doesn't make him an automatic HP. Mooney is by far the most moderate of the three. IIRC, all three Republican Representatives are in the Mainstreet Partnership, so they probably won't be any worse than Capito. Capito and Manchin are two of the best Senators in the Senate, IMO.

Oh the irony.

He almost lost an R+11 district in a Republican tsunami because he was a carpetbagger.

[SATW]

I'd like to see him polled against Alexander Mooney or Patrick Morrisey.

McKinley or Morrisey would be stronger.  McKinley has been in Congress for sometime, although Morrisey has won statewide before (and alongside Manchin).  I don't think Mooney will run, maybe a few cycles later when there's an open seat and he gains experience in the House.

Mooney won statewide GOP Chair in Maryland. He knows how to run a statewide campaign and staff it properly. He's younger than either of them, more energetic, and he is pretty moderate. Two terms in the House is quite enough experience for the Senate, in my opinion. In 2020, an incumbent Republican Governor and Senator are running for re-election. Should he hope to run for Governor in 2024, Senator in 2024/2026(if Capito retires after two terms/McKinley retires after one term), Governor in 2028, or Senator in 2018? Pretty obvious choice to me.

Carpetbagger Mooney is the one person Manchin would have a chance at beating.

Are you just a Democratic hack?

Mooney is actually well liked and pretty young. Just because he moved states doesn't make him an automatic HP. Mooney is by far the most moderate of the three. IIRC, all three Republican Representatives are in the Mainstreet Partnership, so they probably won't be any worse than Capito. Capito and Manchin are two of the best Senators in the Senate, IMO.

Unlike you, I actually know WV politics, as I often go down to Wheeling and Morgantown for Business. So, here are some facts for you:

1. Mooney is not moderate. He is a tea partier and supported Cruz.
2. McKinley is BY FAR the most moderate member of the WV House delegation. Has had a record of supporting some pro-union initiatives and, since 2012 (he was Tea Party from 2010-2012), has towed the establishment line.
3. Mooney is starting to become somewhat liked but doesn't change the fact that he did infact carpet bag to the state.

[SATW]

In terms of the Manchin race:

- McKinley is almost 70. He didn't run for Gov in 2016, I doubt he runs for Senate in 2018.
- More likely candidates include Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-WV-03) and/or WV AG Patrick Morrissey.
- I've heard that Morrissey is eyeing this race, so I can see Jenkins just running for re-election while Morrissey guns for Manchin.

I think Alex Mooney stays in the House a few more terms (and He'll increase his margin of victory by a decent amount each time). Maybe in a few cycles he'll run for Sen or Gov, but not now. He's also facing primary challengers this go around, so we'll see how he fares in their primaries on May 10th (he should win easily, but I want to see if it's by a underwhelming margin or not).

I think Manchin will struggle in a 2018 senate campaign. He'll start off with moderate to strong leads between 7%-10%, and it'll slowly become competitive.

[Intell]

Manchin will win this by about 5 points, maybe more.