WV-PPP (2018 SEN): Manchin leads McKinley by 10

[IceSpear]

Leading years in advance of the election worked out great for Mark Pryor.

Manchin will either retire or get Blanched. You heard it here first.

Also, even this poll isn't great for him. He's not popular at all, which you're going to need to be to survive in a state so heavily against your party. His "lead" is likely more a function of name recognition than anything else. He will see the writing on the wall and retire.

[IceSpear]

Leading years in advance of the election worked out great for Mark Pryor.

Manchin will either retire or get Blanched. You heard it here first.

Also, even this poll isn't great for him. He's not popular at all, which you're going to need to be to survive in a state so heavily against your party. His "lead" is likely more a function of name recognition than anything else. He will see the writing on the wall and retire.

There's a third option that might wind up being what happens: He'll switch parties.

I doubt it. Then he'd just get Griffith'd/Specter'd in the primary.

[IceSpear]

"Blanched" should be an auto-ban phrase.

Do you prefer Pryored? Or Santorumed?

[IceSpear]

Carpetbagger Mooney is the one person Manchin would have a chance at beating.

[IceSpear]

I'd like to see him polled against Alexander Mooney or Patrick Morrisey.

McKinley or Morrisey would be stronger.  McKinley has been in Congress for sometime, although Morrisey has won statewide before (and alongside Manchin).  I don't think Mooney will run, maybe a few cycles later when there's an open seat and he gains experience in the House.

Mooney won statewide GOP Chair in Maryland. He knows how to run a statewide campaign and staff it properly. He's younger than either of them, more energetic, and he is pretty moderate. Two terms in the House is quite enough experience for the Senate, in my opinion. In 2020, an incumbent Republican Governor and Senator are running for re-election. Should he hope to run for Governor in 2024, Senator in 2024/2026(if Capito retires after two terms/McKinley retires after one term), Governor in 2028, or Senator in 2018? Pretty obvious choice to me.

Carpetbagger Mooney is the one person Manchin would have a chance at beating.

Are you just a Democratic hack?

Mooney is actually well liked and pretty young. Just because he moved states doesn't make him an automatic HP. Mooney is by far the most moderate of the three. IIRC, all three Republican Representatives are in the Mainstreet Partnership, so they probably won't be any worse than Capito. Capito and Manchin are two of the best Senators in the Senate, IMO.

Oh the irony.

He almost lost an R+11 district in a Republican tsunami because he was a carpetbagger.

[IceSpear]

Leading years in advance of the election worked out great for Mark Pryor.

Manchin will either retire or get Blanched. You heard it here first.

Also, even this poll isn't great for him. He's not popular at all, which you're going to need to be to survive in a state so heavily against your party. His "lead" is likely more a function of name recognition than anything else. He will see the writing on the wall and retire.

If there is any Dem out of the 2018 red state Dem bunch that can survive, it is Manchin. He has been a loud, consistent critic of the far-left and even the moderate left in his own party, and as such, there is no doubt where he stands. A Republican will have a hard time painting him as too liberal or too cozy with Bernie and Hillary.

If he survived in 2010, why would he start out favored to lose in 2018? Did he have a bad 2010 opponent?

His opponent in 2010 and 2012 was John Raese, a godawful perennial candidate and a complete joke. The fact that it was ever close against Manchin, who at the time was an extremely popular governor, just shows how powerful the Republican tidal wave in WV is.

Take Nick Rahall as an example. He was in the House for decades and had a reputation as a critic of the left and a friend of coal. He won fairly comfortably in 2010/2012. He then got crushed by double digits in 2014. A moderate reputation is not going to save Manchin, the tide is too strong. Just look at his mediocre approval rating even before a single negative ad was run against him. He will get Blanched or retire.