Leading years in advance of the election worked out great for Mark Pryor.
Manchin will either retire or get Blanched. You heard it here first.
Also, even this poll isn't great for him. He's not popular at all, which you're going to need to be to survive in a state so heavily against your party. His "lead" is likely more a function of name recognition than anything else. He will see the writing on the wall and retire.
There's a third option that might wind up being what happens: He'll switch parties.
