Trump vs Clinton

[egalitt]

Note that according to latest polls Trump is trailing Clinton by 5%, though a month ago the difference was double digit.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Hillary wins by 10 points

[Meclazine for Israel]

Geez,

This could go anywhere.

Trump is less likely to win, but there will be so much energy in this campaign, it will be an absolute cracker.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Note that according to latest polls Trump is trailing Clinton by 5%, though a month ago the difference was double digit.

No, according to the latest polls the clown trails 54-41%.

[egalitt]

Nobody believed Trump would be the Republican Nominee, but he eliminated all rivals. Clinton is linked to an FBI criminal investigation that can badly affect her  campaign. I personally choose the first option.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Nobody believed Trump would be the Republican Nominee, but he eliminated all rivals. Clinton is linked to an FBI criminal investigation that can badly affect her  campaign. I personally choose the first option.

Hillary isn't a "GOP rival" can't believe people think he's gonna win.

[Ronnie]

Hillary by 15-20

[egalitt]

Note that according to latest polls Trump is trailing Clinton by 5%, though a month ago the difference was double digit.

No, according to the latest polls the clown trails 54-41%.

See here
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Note that according to latest polls Trump is trailing Clinton by 5%, though a month ago the difference was double digit.

No, according to the latest polls the clown trails 54-41%.

See here
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

The Rasmussen poll is garbage.

[Mallow]

Clinton by 8

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

It's gonna be a 54-46 margin at most.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

50-47ish.

[Camaro33]

Nation is too polarized and the nominees are too controversial for a double digit win for either party (barring no terror attacks, scandals, or major world events before November). I mean, the electoral map has looked nearly the same the past 16 years and it is clearly geographically divided. Considering we have outgoing Democratic president, and the nation wants change, I'd say the map will be somewhere in between Obama '08 and Bush '04, give or take perhaps one new state flipping either way. To really think a landslide either way will happen without some major event changing the game is wishful thinking.

[egalitt]

It would be interesting to compare the predictions with the real results. Perhaps all are wrong and due to some "major event changing the game" Trump will compete with Sanders or somebody else, or Clinton will compete with somebody else. Or somebody else will compete with somebody else. Or the election will be cancelled. In my country some magicians predict the USA destruction by a disastrous volcano eruption and earthquake in Yellowstone.
A poll inside this poll:
 Do you believe that due to some major event changing the game >list]
[li]Trump drops out[/li]
[li]Clinton drops out[/li]
[li]Trump and Clinton drop out[/li]
[li]The election is cancelled [/li]
[/list]

[/list]

[Maxwell]

Barring something major, Hillary by mid-high single digits.

[Ogre Mage]

Clinton will win the popular vote by 6-10%.

[IceSpear]

The people who think Hillary is going to win by double digits are out of their damn minds. For one thing, just having a letter after your name guarantees you 45% of the vote as a floor. Secondly, the media will do everything they possibly can to ensure it is a horse race.

[Virginiá]

The people who think Hillary is going to win by double digits are out of their damn minds. For one thing, just having a letter after your name guarantees you 45% of the vote as a floor. Secondly, the media will do everything they possibly can to ensure it is a horse race.

I don't know, I mean, you are probably right that it won't be double digits, but if there was any year in the modern era where a landslide like that was to happen, it would be this one. So it's too early to rule definitively on it, imo.

[IceSpear]

The people who think Hillary is going to win by double digits are out of their damn minds. For one thing, just having a letter after your name guarantees you 45% of the vote as a floor. Secondly, the media will do everything they possibly can to ensure it is a horse race.

I don't know, I mean, you are probably right that it won't be double digits, but if there was any year in the modern era where a landslide like that was to happen, it would be this one. So it's too early to rule definitively on it, imo.

I can rule it out. If the media wants a horserace (and they do), that's what they'll get. There's a reason why "muh emails" are back on the front page of Politico and The Washington Post, along will breathless coverage of Hillary's "collapse and embarrassing loss" in Indiana, where she spent $0 and where the delegate math remains essentially unchanged. They want to turn that 13 point into a 3 point lead.

And if you think they don't have that much power, take a look at what they were able to accomplish in a single summer:

[President Johnson]

TRUMP wins ~50-48%. Around 281 electoral votes.

[All Along The Watchtower]

BOLD PREDICTION: Clinton wins 50%-47%, with around 3% going to third-party candidates.

[Virginiá]

I can rule it out. If the media wants a horserace (and they do), that's what they'll get. There's a reason why "muh emails" are back on the front page of Politico and The Washington Post, along will breathless coverage of Hillary's "collapse and embarrassing loss" in Indiana, where she spent $0 and where the delegate math remains essentially unchanged. They want to turn that 13 point into a 3 point lead.

And if you think they don't have that much power, take a look at what they were able to accomplish in a single summer:

...

I do hear what you're saying about the media, and that seems about right, but if turnout is at 2012 levels or higher (which could be the case, considering 2012 wasn't really super-high turnout to begin with), then the numbers work out easier. A surge in Hispanic turnout combined with just a few extra points of the white vote going to Clinton is enough to get Hillary to 55% and up. That's how little it takes when she has nearly the entire minority vote locked up and eager to vote. Considering Obama won 43% of the white vote in 2008, I don't see a 2-3 point swing as out of the question here. Especially against a terrible candidate like Trump. I think ruling out an 2-3 point shift against someone like Trump is unreasonable - Things are not that polarized.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Clinton: 52%
Trump: 41%
Other: 7%

[SillyAmerican]

Nobody believed Trump would be the Republican Nominee, but he eliminated all rivals. Clinton is linked to an FBI criminal investigation that can badly affect her  campaign. I personally choose the first option.

Yup. People can scream about Trump all they want, but he beat out 16 fairly solid contenders for the GOP nomination, and I have to believe that even Trump would know better than to store sensitive government information on private devices. Sorry, Hillary, but you won't get my vote...

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

No way in hell does TRUMP win.