Who will win the general election?

[Spark]

[SillyAmerican]

Either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. 

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Hillary will win.

I can't see Trump winning, it's like something out of a bad sci-fi movie. People say "nobody expected Trump to be the nominee but he is now blah blah" You can't expect him to win when he insults women, Mexicans etc and plus the GE is different from the primary. Trump isn't gonna win nothing. Bookmark this post for November.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Hillary obviously.

Trump would need to turn his image around and drive up turnout among angry whites.

[Nyvin]

The polls have been completely correct so far....they showed Trump leading the GOP primary the entire time...and he won it.   They showed Hillary beating Sanders the entire time, and she did.

The polls show Hillary clobbering Trump in the GE....why would that one be off when the other two were correct?

[Doimper]

The polls have been completely correct so far....they showed Trump leading the GOP primary the entire time...and he won it.   They showed Hillary beating Sanders the entire time, and she did.

The polls show Hillary clobbering Trump in the GE....why would that one be off when the other two were correct?

To be fair, polling numbers can change significantly throughout the course of a general election. Just ask Dukakis.

[Meclazine for Israel]

[Maxwell]

I like how you keep linking comics from noted white supremacist Ben Garrsion.

[RightBehind]

Bernie.


I still believe.

[Xing]

I have no idea who she'll be.

[°Leprechaun]

Bold prediction. It will be a man or a woman.

[NHI]

Someone from New York.

[°Leprechaun]

It will either be Sanders or someone else. Like Shrodinger's cat. Sanders literally has a zero chance of winning and literally a small chance of winning. Therefore I predict that Sanders will win even though he has zero chance of winning. In other words, who really knows. Therefore I doubled chances for a Sanders win. He had one vote, now he has two.

[Higgs]

It will either be Sanders or someone else. Like Shrodinger's cat. Sanders literally has a zero chance of winning and literally a small chance of winning. Therefore I predict that Sanders will win even though he has zero chance of winning. In other words, who really knows. Therefore I doubled chances for a Sanders win. He had one vote, now he has two.

Wtf did you just post

[Green Line]

Where's the option for Gary Johnson?!

[President Johnson]

DONALD JOHN TRUMP

[MT Treasurer]

Trump, narrowly.

B-b-b-but THE POLLS!!!!!11!!!

[windjammer]

Someone from New York.

[Doimper]

Someone from New York.

The length of your signature is the most obnoxious thing on this board

[The_Doctor]

See this post here.

I think it comes down to looking at Trump's favorable ratings among white women and the anticipated percent of the electorate Latinos are expected to be.

In general, I'd predict Clinton by anywhere from 2-12%.

I think she improves among white women and the Trump disaster boosts Latino turnout from 8% in 2012 to around 13-14% of the electorate in 2016. If both were to happen the ensuing wipe out would probably the biggest victory by any Presidential contender since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

Most crucially, I think the election comes down to turnout and organization. Trump just put together his finance committee yesterday - which tells you all that you need to know about the Trump campaign's organization. Coupled with the dependence on RNC dollars and his terrible favorability ratings, Trump is going to be in a steep hole. He needs to contribute, minimum, right now, $200 million or so to his campaign just to get an organization running and groups ready in the battleground states.

Trump needs to turn around the election polling by mid August. If he's not competitive by September 1, he's toast.

[President Johnson]

See this post here.

I think it comes down to looking at Trump's favorable ratings among white women and the anticipated percent of the electorate Latinos are expected to be.

In general, I'd predict Clinton by anywhere from 2-12%.

I think she improves among white women and the Trump disaster boosts Latino turnout from 8% in 2012 to around 13-14% of the electorate in 2016. If both were to happen the ensuing wipe out would probably the biggest victory by any Presidential contender since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

Most crucially, I think the election comes down to turnout and organization. Trump just put together his finance committee yesterday - which tells you all that you need to know about the Trump campaign's organization. Coupled with the dependence on RNC dollars and his terrible favorability ratings, Trump is going to be in a steep hole. He needs to contribute, minimum, right now, $200 million or so to his campaign just to get an organization running and groups ready in the battleground states.

Trump needs to turn around the election polling by mid August. If he's not competitive by September 1, he's toast.

Well, Hillary's unfavorable ratings aren't much better.

I think TRUMP will win because his message fits the spirit of the day: Enough with establishment politics.

[The_Doctor]

See this post here.

I think it comes down to looking at Trump's favorable ratings among white women and the anticipated percent of the electorate Latinos are expected to be.

In general, I'd predict Clinton by anywhere from 2-12%.

I think she improves among white women and the Trump disaster boosts Latino turnout from 8% in 2012 to around 13-14% of the electorate in 2016. If both were to happen the ensuing wipe out would probably the biggest victory by any Presidential contender since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

Most crucially, I think the election comes down to turnout and organization. Trump just put together his finance committee yesterday - which tells you all that you need to know about the Trump campaign's organization. Coupled with the dependence on RNC dollars and his terrible favorability ratings, Trump is going to be in a steep hole. He needs to contribute, minimum, right now, $200 million or so to his campaign just to get an organization running and groups ready in the battleground states.

Trump needs to turn around the election polling by mid August. If he's not competitive by September 1, he's toast.

Well, Hillary's unfavorable ratings aren't much better.

I think TRUMP will win because his message fits the spirit of the day: Enough with establishment politics.

They're better than his.

Most crucially, Trump's Trump University trial starts during the Republican Convention itself and the time spent putting together a general election organization will consume the Trump orbit - eating up precious time and dollars that would have otherwise gone to competing with Hillary Clinton. His ratings will most likely stay low among the general election groups, no matter how to the left he races.

Trump has clearly not sketched out a general election strategy. How do I know? His unfavorable ratings spiked in March/April. His most controversial statements came between February 27 and this Tuesday. As of Tuesday, he was bashing Rafael Cruz Sr for no good reason (he knew he was going to win Indiana, unless he didn't have a pollster, in which case - see my note on organization). He spent a lot of time alienating general election voters and the campaign infighting was very much on view. He had the nomination nearly in the bag after March 15 but blew it (an important delay).

Outsiders are overrated in the long run. The "maverick" label only gets you to an interview, it doesn't get you the job in the end. Candidates who prioritize organization and conventional campaigns (they're conventional for a reason!) tend to outlast the mavericks and win. The classic example is McCain v. Bush in 2000. Bush's organization and conventional campaign beat out McCain's spontaneous style. Likewise, the electorate is enthralled with "down with the establishment" but if you can't take advantage of that theme with a conventional campaign that focuses on organization and a disciplined message you can't really hope to win.

[The_Doctor]

Oh - and one more thing. If you've ceded Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, and you're down by double digits in Florida thanks to blowing it with Latinos, you've ceded one of the most important things you can ever have in a Presidential election: the ability to control where the battlegrounds are fought.

If Hillary Clinton doesn't have to put dollars into CO, NV, and NM - and FL is wrapped up - she gets to play with Arizona, North Carolina, and retain the Obama coalition in PA, WI, and OH. And if she's looking at polling and the map keeps expanding, she'll go after these red states, which bleeds out the Republicans even more. If you're fighting in Missouri, and other light red states, you're not spending them in Ohio, Florida, and so on.

The Democrats, most likely, unless Trump bows to reality and puts a ton of money into his campaign right now, will have a cash advantage. To an extent they get to play with more advantages than the GOP side.

Also very last note. Donald Trump's horrific negatives means he doesn't get to have as much leeway with Hillary's negatives as he would have otherwise. It pretty much means the negative baggage stuff he has may neutralize any negative issues Hillary has, thus putting the election down to organization and turnout of specific groups and who controls the battleground map.   

[MK]

See this post here.

I think it comes down to looking at Trump's favorable ratings among white women and the anticipated percent of the electorate Latinos are expected to be.

In general, I'd predict Clinton by anywhere from 2-12%.

I think she improves among white women and the Trump disaster boosts Latino turnout from 8% in 2012 to around 13-14% of the electorate in 2016. If both were to happen the ensuing wipe out would probably the biggest victory by any Presidential contender since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

Most crucially, I think the election comes down to turnout and organization. Trump just put together his finance committee yesterday - which tells you all that you need to know about the Trump campaign's organization. Coupled with the dependence on RNC dollars and his terrible favorability ratings, Trump is going to be in a steep hole. He needs to contribute, minimum, right now, $200 million or so to his campaign just to get an organization running and groups ready in the battleground states.

Trump needs to turn around the election polling by mid August. If he's not competitive by September 1, he's toast.

Well, Hillary's unfavorable ratings aren't much better.

I think TRUMP will win because his message fits the spirit of the day: Enough with establishment politics.

Hillary Clinton if you believe the polls now .   BUT,  the contrast of ultimate establishment figure  vs ultimate outsider  will put the middle class and other Americans who complain of being soldout by Washington in the hot seat.   Trump has a chance for this reason. 

[All Along The Watchtower]

Write-in: Barack Obama