Who will win the general election?

[libertpaulian]

If the election was held today? Clinton.

Six months from now? Hard to tell.  He has to be within reaching distance of her, tied with her, or ahead of her by mid-September, though.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Trump, narrowly.

B-b-b-but THE POLLS!!!!!11!!!

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

See this post here.

I think it comes down to looking at Trump's favorable ratings among white women and the anticipated percent of the electorate Latinos are expected to be.

In general, I'd predict Clinton by anywhere from 2-12%.

I think she improves among white women and the Trump disaster boosts Latino turnout from 8% in 2012 to around 13-14% of the electorate in 2016. If both were to happen the ensuing wipe out would probably the biggest victory by any Presidential contender since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

Most crucially, I think the election comes down to turnout and organization. Trump just put together his finance committee yesterday - which tells you all that you need to know about the Trump campaign's organization. Coupled with the dependence on RNC dollars and his terrible favorability ratings, Trump is going to be in a steep hole. He needs to contribute, minimum, right now, $200 million or so to his campaign just to get an organization running and groups ready in the battleground states.

Trump needs to turn around the election polling by mid August. If he's not competitive by September 1, he's toast.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Hillary will win.

I can't see Trump winning, it's like something out of a bad sci-fi movie. People say "nobody expected Trump to be the nominee but he is now blah blah" You can't expect him to win when he insults women, Mexicans etc and plus the GE is different from the primary. Trump isn't gonna win nothing. Bookmark this post for November.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Hillary will win.

I can't see Trump winning, it's like something out of a bad sci-fi movie. People say "nobody expected Trump to be the nominee but he is now blah blah" You can't expect him to win when he insults women, Mexicans etc and plus the GE is different from the primary. Trump isn't gonna win nothing. Bookmark this post for November.

Har har har