CNN releases first battleground map for Clinton vs. Trump

[Mallow]

What do these numbers mean? They certainly aren't the usual PVI numbers or anything like that.

When one uses D+ or R+ it means the difference between that party's share of the two-party vote compared to the party's share of the national two-party vote. Officially the results are supposed to to be averaged over two presidential cycles. D+ and R+ are not just the difference between the D and R votes.

For example in 2012 Obama got 51.01% to 47.15% for Romney. That totals 98.16% so Obama got 51.97% (51.01%/0.9816) of the two party vote. In IL Obama won 57.50% to 40.66%, which gave Obama 58.58% of the two party vote in IL. The difference between his share in IL and the national share is 6.61%, so one could say that IL was D+6.61 in 2012, which would round off to D+7.

They were not PVI, but my expected D-R (or R-D) margins. I should have been more clear about that.

[muon2]

So here's what the PVI might predict today. I used HuffPost pollster with all nonpartisan polls using likely voters with maximum smoothing. That has Clinton over Trump 44.6% to 39.5% which translates to 53% of the two-party vote for Clinton.  That means R+3 should be the break even PVI so I put states with R+2 to R+4 in the tossup category. This is the map and it has 303 for Clinton to 190 for Trump with 45 tossup.

[muon2]

So here's what the PVI might predict today. I used HuffPost pollster with all nonpartisan polls using likely voters with maximum smoothing. That has Clinton over Trump 44.6% to 39.5% which translates to 53% of the two-party vote for Clinton.  That means R+3 should be the break even PVI so I put states with R+2 to R+4 in the tossup category. This is the map and it has 303 for Clinton to 190 for Trump with 45 tossup.

For comparison I can switch to moderate smoothing, but leave the same sample of polls. That puts a lot more weight on the recent Rasmussen results and the HuffPost calculator shows Trump up 40.4% to 39.0%, which is a 50.9% share of the two party vote and puts D+1 at the break even PVI. So here's the map with EVEN, D+1, and D+2 as tossups. It has 253 for Trump, 206 for Clinton, and 79 tossup.

[muon2]

muon, what do you think the PVI map will look like after 2016?

The PVI will drop the 2008 results and add 2016 after the election. The changes will be based on how the states shift compared to the national shift, so it's not about the actual percentage, but the relative percentage compared to the national results. The thing to look for are states where the voting pattern has changed a lot between 2008 and 2016.

For example, without home state favorite Obama on the ticket, IL will almost certainly shift a couple points less Dem in the PVI. Other states with large black populations may see a similar effect, since the black turnout in 2008 was unusually high, biasing those states for the Dems. I doubt Hillary can match Obama's turnout of black voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

After 2016 OH/Va will lean Dem.  2020 and after CO and NV won't be enough and Dems would need one of those states to win. Due to loss of electors in Midwest after reapportionment. 2020 Senate map has Dems picking up CO & IA and NH, MI and Va as battlegrounds. But, Strickland is very competetive and outperforming McGinty

[IceSpear]

Here's NBC's map:

[img]http://media3.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2016_18/1526791/battlegroundmap_e47d6fdeed646ab940e50fbbdb9a6815.nbcnews-ux-2880-1000.png[img]

That's a little more reasonable. At least they don't have Nevada as a tossup.

But wait, NJ is only lean Dem? What the hell?

NJ is more likely to vote Republican than MN! lol

On VA/NC: isn't it logically consistent for only one of these to be a toss up? VA is always going to be at least few points more Democratic, so you'd think that if VA is a toss up, NC is lean R. And vice versa.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

CNN will probably call the race "close" even if Hillary is up by 20 just for ratings

"Razor tight"

[IceSpear]

CNN will probably call the race "close" even if Hillary is up by 20 just for ratings

"Razor tight"

I was pissed off at them for blatantly lying about the Wisconsin D primary being close. I got my hopes up. On top of that, their horrible system of calling states made me miss recording the moment Hillary won PA while I was at her victory party. Along with their horrible tumblr-esque election results pages and s**t color scheme, and I'm swearing off CNN for good.

[Nyvin]

Here's the NY Times map:



http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/05/04/upshot/electoral-map-trump-clinton.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=image&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=1

[muon2]

Here's the NY Times map:



http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/05/04/upshot/electoral-map-trump-clinton.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=image&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=1

I'm not sure where they get a 10% margin. If I use the full set of polls at HuffPost I get a margin of 6.7%, and if I exclude partisan polls (by HuffPost's definition) it drops to 5.1% as I showed. The NYT map at the link with the 5% swing is basically equivalent to my second PVI map with Clinton taking all states that are Even or Dem.

[MT Treasurer]

New CNN battleground map, released today:

Clinton 236
Trump 191

- Colorado (9 electoral votes) moves from "battleground" to "lean Democrat"
- Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) moves from "battleground" to "lean Democrat"
- Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) moves from lean Democrat to "battleground"
- Utah (6 electoral votes) moves from "solid Republican" to "lean Republican"

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/20/politics/road-to-270-electoral-college-map-2/

[ProudModerate2]

New CNN battleground map, released today:

Clinton 236
Trump 191

- Colorado (9 electoral votes) moves from "battleground" to "lean Democrat"
- Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) moves from "battleground" to "lean Democrat"
- Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) moves from lean Democrat to "battleground"
- Utah (6 electoral votes) moves from "solid Republican" to "lean Republican"

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/20/politics/road-to-270-electoral-college-map-2/

Very, very reasonable.
Though I hope trump is not this "close" in Pennsylvania.

Correction: My bad. Just noticed Virginia as toss-up. Don't agree with this at all. And Nevada is slipping slowly but surely for trump ; but Nevada as toss-up right now is OK.

[Xing]

lol Utah. I guess they're taking polls very literally. I still have a hard time seeing CO end up more Democratic than NV. I might consider putting VA in the Lean D column, though if they want to make it look like a horse race, they definitely won't do that.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

VA is lean Clinton, but otherwise fine.

[Mallow]

I still think it's unreasonable to have MI to the right of MN.