Realistic ceiling for Senate Democrats?

[This account no longer in use.]

...what?

[Heisenberg]

Can't see Burr, Blunt, or Young losing.  Grassley and McCain will be hard to beat, too.  The ceiling for the Dems is probably holding NV and CO, while picking up NH, PA, OH, IL, WI, and FL, for a gain of 6 seats, and a 52-48 majority.

[windjammer]

Can't see Burr, Blunt, or Young losing.  Grass leg and McCain will be hard to beat, too.  The ceiling for the Dems is probably holding NV and CO, while picking up NH, PA, OH, IL, WI, and FL, for a gain of 6 seats, and a 52-48 majority.

Atlas still seems to think that coattails are a thing. I also might add that I really can't see Katie McGinty winning.

I used to believe that people could vote differently between their senate choice and their presidential choice. Then, the 2014 midterms happened. Now, I believe that, except for rare persons (Collins,...), people vote for the same party both for the presidential and senate elections.

If Trump implodes, it will be really bloodly for senate republicans.

Oh and just to be clear, HRC winning means senate democrats lose at least MT, ND, WV, IN, MO, WI and OH. (except republicans  up for choosing their nominee and choose a rapist/rape apologist)

[MT Treasurer]

^No, in fact, Begich, Udall and Hagan were able to keep it really close despite the unpopularity of Obama. 2014 was so bad for Democrats because of all the open seats in red states (MT, WV, SD). The only one who was clearly doomed was Pryor, but AR is a solid red state. Kirk and Ayotte are the only Senators in 2016 who are running for reelection in deep blue states. Most competitive races this year are in swing states. That's a big difference.

[Orser67]

Can't see Burr, Blunt, or Young losing.  Grass leg and McCain will be hard to beat, too.

All of these are fair enough except for Burr. His polling isn't great and he's in a swing state. I thought Dems were a long shot here given recruiting, but Ross seems ok so far.

[windjammer]

^No, in fact, Begich, Udall and Hagan were able to keep it really close despite the unpopularity of Obama. 2014 was so bad for Democrats because of all the open seats in red states (MT, WV, SD). The only one who was clearly doomed was Pryor, but AR is a solid red state. Kirk and Ayotte are the only Senators in 2016 who are running for reelection in deep blue states. Most competitive races this year are in swing states. That's a big difference.

Regarding Udall, well, he ran a terrible campaign and Cory Gardner was a good campaigner. I was surprised it was so close, and the fact it was shows that there isn't not much split ticket in Colorado anymore. Gardner should have won considering Udall was a disaster and  him a good candidate, and he won by less than 2 points. That just shows CO is becoming a dem leaning state and it is more and more difficult for republicans to win here, considering people don't vote differently between presidential and senate races.

Regarding Hagan, well, her opponent was a nut (people shouldn't watch their hand), and she should have been reelected if people could vote differently between presidential and senate elections, and that simply doesn't happen anymore.

Regarding Begich, well, I agree with you, one of the few exceptions.

[This account no longer in use.]

Can't see Burr, Blunt, or Young losing.  Grass leg and McCain will be hard to beat, too.  The ceiling for the Dems is probably holding NV and CO, while picking up NH, PA, OH, IL, WI, and FL, for a gain of 6 seats, and a 52-48 majority.

Atlas still seems to think that coattails are a thing. I also might add that I really can't see Katie McGinty winning.

You shouldn't be saying people are crazy for thinking coattails exist when you're running an entire conspiracy theory about this ring of 'angry NH women' who sabotage every election to fill NH statewide offices and congressional seats with white women.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kate McGinty will beat Toomey. But beating Grassley too is important. 53/47 with OH and FL going D and 272/GOP flipping (IL, Iowa, Pa, WI &NH)

[The Arizonan]

I have a tough time imagining that Katie McGinty will win. Pat Toomey has too much name recognition.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pat Toomey will lose, as he didn't support Trump in primary, he supported Cruz and Clinton is narrowly leading in Pa

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I'll buy TN volunteer's argument on Louisiana, and Indiana was a tough call, but seriously, if you think a Republican incumbent is getting knocked off in a presidential year in Missouri without a major scandal, at this point, you're probably delusional.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously the ceiling is 5-7 Seats flip to Dems. FL, NH, Pa, WI & IL gets Dems to 51 and AZ and OH hangs in balance.

[pbrower2a]

Can't see Burr, Blunt, or Young losing.  Grass leg and McCain will be hard to beat, too.  The ceiling for the Dems is probably holding NV and CO, while picking up NH, PA, OH, IL, WI, and FL, for a gain of 6 seats, and a 52-48 majority.

Mitch McConnell has put a raft of US Senate seats at risk by thwarting any effort by the Obama Administration to appoint a Justice to the open Senate seat. Rejection of a crook, crony, extremist, or underqualified nominee is acceptable. Rejecting any nominee solely as a delaying tactic to ensure that the next President and Congress approve the replacement is power politics and nothing else.

Senators Grassley and McCain do not need this.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems aren't winning more than 6 or 7 seats

[Gog]

Probobly 52-48.