What % of Libertarian vote will prevent Hillary and Trump from 270?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:50:42 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  What % of Libertarian vote will prevent Hillary and Trump from 270?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Poll
Question: What % of Libertarian vote will prevent Hillary and Trump from 270?
#1
5-10%
 
#2
10-20%
 
#3
20-30%
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 49

Author Topic: What % of Libertarian vote will prevent Hillary and Trump from 270?  (Read 3120 times)
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 05, 2016, 11:59:12 AM »

What % of Libertarian votes would be needed to prevent Hillary and Trump from reaching 270 electoral college? How many votes would it take to split the votes close to 33% evenly 3 ways?

This is probably the best opportunity for the Libertarian candidate to sway over #NeverTrump voters, disenfranchised Cruz voters, Conservatives and other voters alike.
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2016, 12:01:40 PM »

After Cruz drop out, Libertarian party registration doubles.

http://thelibertarianrepublic.com/libertarian-party-registrations-double-cruz-drops/
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2016, 12:02:52 PM »

A higher % of Libertarian vote will only prevent Hillary from getting 270 in the sense that she'll end up getting around 400 instead.
Logged
Rules for me, but not for thee
Dabeav
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,785
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.19, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2016, 12:12:37 PM »

Yeah it would take a good chunk. But the upside, if Johnson or whoever gets 5%+ then they have to be included in the process next time around.
Logged
Slander and/or Libel
Figs
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,338


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 05, 2016, 12:15:38 PM »

The only way a libertarian candidate could keep either candidate from getting to 270 is if they win some electoral votes, but win them from both sides. But the libertarian set is going to be coming exclusively from the Republican side. So basically, no amount of libertarian votes is going to throw this to the House.
Logged
MisSkeptic
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 391
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 05, 2016, 12:18:25 PM »

Like previous elections I predict the Libertarian party to receive similar results. I agree the Republican party has both alienated and angered many voters who could help them win the GE, but I don't see them running to vote for Gary Johnson.
Logged
7,052,770
Harry
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 35,222
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2016, 12:38:42 PM »

It will help her, because the Libertarian candidate would disproportionately draw from Republican/Trump voters. If Gary Johnson gets 5% of the vote, Hillary landslides. If he gets 15%, she wins over 500 Electoral Votes, etc.
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2016, 12:38:48 PM »

I split the 3 way votes close to 33% from Trump/Hillary/Johnson or Petersen

Hillary - 265
Trump - 184
Johnson or Petersen - 89


Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,585
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 05, 2016, 12:40:38 PM »

The Libertarian Party candidate will not win any states in this election.

There will not be a President from the Libertarian Party in your or my lifetime.
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 05, 2016, 01:10:57 PM »

The Libertarian Party candidate will not win any states in this election.

There will not be a President from the Libertarian Party in your or my lifetime.

That kind of mentality needs to be broken.
Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,351
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 05, 2016, 01:16:28 PM »

It's not going to happen.
Logged
Ronnie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,993
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 05, 2016, 01:17:30 PM »

That kind of mentality needs to be broken.

The kind of mentality that believes that a party which has a fringe right wing economic platform can appeal to anyone other than teenage hipsters and the super rich is the one that needs to be broken.
Logged
Slander and/or Libel
Figs
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,338


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 05, 2016, 01:21:58 PM »

The Libertarian Party candidate will not win any states in this election.

There will not be a President from the Libertarian Party in your or my lifetime.

That kind of mentality needs to be broken.

It's not a mentality. It's a description of reality.
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,585
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: May 05, 2016, 01:51:24 PM »

The Libertarian Party candidate will not win any states in this election.

There will not be a President from the Libertarian Party in your or my lifetime.

That kind of mentality needs to be broken.

There could very well be a candidate who represents vaguely libertarianish ideals as president, but the notion that someone of the profile of Gary freaking Johnson can cobble together a coalition to win a state, let alone 270 EV is patently ridiculous. If libertarians want to win an election, they need to elect someone who is either a minority or a woman (because no, having a white dude saying that his policies are good for these groups does not make them want to vote for him) elected as either a left-libertarian Democrat or a right-libertarian Republican. Then, if that person also has charisma and a solid platform, they might be able to change the party's thinking/electorate enough to build such a coalition.

I don't see it happening.
Logged
Santander
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,851
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: 4.00, S: 2.61


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: May 05, 2016, 01:53:57 PM »

All this really demonstrates is how irrelevant the Libertarian Party is.
Logged
Heisenberg
SecureAmerica
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,110
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: May 05, 2016, 01:58:13 PM »

The Libertarian Party candidate will not win any states in this election.

There will not be a President from the Libertarian Party in your or my lifetime.

That kind of mentality needs to be broken.
The Libertarian Party
It's not a mentality. It's a description of reality.
The Libertatian Party usually describes itself as way more socially liberal than the Democratic Party.  I can't see that winning over hard-core religious pro-lifers.  I know Petersen is pro-life, but isn't he also atheist?  That would turn off much of the religious right.  I think it's just protest.  Look, if 1964 couldn't take down the Republican Party, 2016 will not.  The GOP will rise from the ashes in 2017 and be strong again.
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: May 05, 2016, 02:25:20 PM »

Look, we have tons of choices in the kind of food you eat, what you drink, the kind of cars we drive, and  houses we live in.

It's time we have more choices in political parties, because Democrats and Republicans are both authoritarian whether it comes to your wallet or social life. Freedom and liberty is waning each year and it must be reversed.
Logged
Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,030


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: May 05, 2016, 02:32:02 PM »

Look, we have tons of choices in the kind of food you eat, what you drink, the kind of cars we drive, and  houses we live in.

It's time we have more choices in political parties, because Democrats and Republicans are both authoritarian whether it comes to your wallet or social life. Freedom and liberty is waning each year and it must be reversed.

Thank god that libertarians will never matter outside of the Internet.
Logged
World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,249


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2016, 02:33:04 PM »

Similarly to how most conservative voters don't think of being conservative the way 'movement conservatives' think they do, most Americans don't think of freedom the way the Libertarian Party wishes they did.
Logged
Santander
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,851
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: 4.00, S: 2.61


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: May 05, 2016, 02:34:38 PM »

It's time we have more choices in political parties, because Democrats and Republicans are both authoritarian whether it comes to your wallet or social life. Freedom and liberty is waning each year and it must be reversed.
The people do have a choice and they've demonstrated that they're fiscally moderate and socially conservative.
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,175


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: May 05, 2016, 02:35:27 PM »

They would need to focus on one state in order to do that, and take votes from both sides. I don't see why they would want to do that, though.

The only way a libertarian candidate could keep either candidate from getting to 270 is if they win some electoral votes, but win them from both sides. But the libertarian set is going to be coming exclusively from the Republican side. So basically, no amount of libertarian votes is going to throw this to the House.

Maybe if Jill Stein comes out in favor of banning memes Johnson can get some Bernie Bros. Tongue
Logged
Rules for me, but not for thee
Dabeav
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,785
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.19, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2016, 02:45:50 PM »

I split the 3 way votes close to 33% from Trump/Hillary/Johnson or Petersen

Hillary - 265
Trump - 184
Johnson or Petersen - 89




In this implausible scenario, Johnson wouldn't win his home state of New Mexico?!
Logged
Rules for me, but not for thee
Dabeav
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,785
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.19, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: May 05, 2016, 02:49:40 PM »

It will help her, because the Libertarian candidate would disproportionately draw from Republican/Trump voters. If Gary Johnson gets 5% of the vote, Hillary landslides. If he gets 15%, she wins over 500 Electoral Votes, etc.

So Johnson would only come from the right anti-Trumpers? How about the anti-Clinton Bernie-left?
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: May 05, 2016, 03:13:48 PM »


Did it go from 5 to 10?
Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,351
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: May 05, 2016, 06:34:49 PM »

Look, we have tons of choices in the kind of food you eat, what you drink, the kind of cars we drive, and  houses we live in.

It's time we have more choices in political parties, because Democrats and Republicans are both authoritarian whether it comes to your wallet or social life. Freedom and liberty is waning each year and it must be reversed.

Thank god that libertarians will never matter outside of the Internet.

LOL.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.05 seconds with 16 queries.