Northern Ireland Assembly 2016

[joevsimp]

East Antrim is the first to declare. David Hildich of the DUP is over quota on the first count. DUP vote was down 8% splitting between UUP, UKIP and Pup. Alliance stable and nationalists on naff all as usual in this seat

[reciprocity]

This should be interesting.... From my knowledge, there was no polling done and plus, it is an STV election; So I can't wait until next Friday to get all the results!

[IceAgeComing]

Not much will change; STV generally doesn't allow for big swings anyway; especially in a place as fixed in its voting as NI now is

e: PBP topped the poll in Belfast West and apparently they are quite likely to get McCann in on preferences

[Bacon King]

"In general terms, turnout in eastern constituencies has increased compared to 2011, but dropped in western constituencies"

is this meaningful at all in terms of the religious split

edit: oh hey here's a turnout chart

[joevsimp]

"In general terms, turnout in eastern constituencies has increased compared to 2011, but dropped in western constituencies"

is this meaningful at all in terms of the religious split

Sinn Fein and the SDLP both down about 2%, wee'l see when the dust settles how much of that is differential turnout and how much is PBP taking votes off them,  there's also an independent doing well in Foyle but I don't know a thing about her.

Alliance, UUP and DUP are down just under 1% on last time, Greens are up slightly. NI Labour don't seem to have made much of an impact

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Do PBP identity as nationalists or as "who care"?

[Bacon King]

Their official community designation is "other"

[ObserverIE]

Do PBP identity as nationalists or as "who care"?

They officially designate as "others". Their voters, on the other hand, would overwhelmingly identify as nationalist. Carroll's second preferences in West Belfast went:

SF: 1546.16
SDLP: 760.76
Green: 378.84
Alliance: 136.40
UUP: 14.96
DUP: 14.52

The SWP, whose front organisation PBP is, was "critically supportive" of the Provisionals during the conflict. The SP, on the other hand, whose front organisation is "Cross Community Labour Alternative", is in favour of a Socialist Federation of Ireland within a Socialist Federation of The British Isles, not that it's likely to bring up that particular ideological quirk on the doorsteps of either Jobstown or the Lisburn Road.

[ag]

Do PBP identity as nationalists or as "who care"?

They officially designate as "others". Their voters, on the other hand, would overwhelmingly identify as nationalist. Carroll's second preferences in West Belfast went:

SF: 1546.16
SDLP: 760.76
Green: 378.84
Alliance: 136.40
UUP: 14.96
DUP: 14.52

The SWP, whose front organisation PBP is, was "critically supportive" of the Provisionals during the conflict. The SP, on the other hand, whose front organisation is "Cross Community Labour Alternative", is in favour of a Socialist Federation of Ireland within a Socialist Federation of The British Isles, not that it's likely to bring up that particular ideological quirk on the doorsteps of either Jobstown or the Lisburn Road.

They just got a second seat.

[YL]

(All comparisons with 2011.)

East Belfast: count complete, DUP 3, Alliance 2, UUP 1.  Alliance gain from PUP.

North Belfast: count complete, DUP 3, SF 2, SDLP 1.  No change.

South Belfast: count complete, DUP 2, SDLP 1, SF 1, Alliance 1, Green 1.  DUP and Greens gain from UUP and SDLP.

West Belfast: count complete, SF 4, PBP 1, SDLP 1.  PBP gain from SF.  The SDLP margin over the DUP on the last count was 4430 to 4341.

East Antrim: 2 DUP and 1 UUP elected so far.  An Alliance candidate is about to be eliminated, and transfers should then elect the other Alliance candidate; after that it's between SF, UKIP, DUP3 and UUP2 for two seats.

North Antrim: Clearly going to be 3 DUP, 1 TUV, 1 UUP, 1 SF (no change).  There are surpluses to transfer but they're not going to help the SDLP candidate.

South Antrim: count complete, DUP 3, SF 1, Alliance 1, UUP 1.  No change.

North Down: 2 DUP elected.  There's some way to go; they've only just eliminated the Tory.  But I think the other four seats will be DUP3, UUP, Green and Alliance, which would be no change.

South Down: count complete, SDLP 2, SF 2, DUP 1, UUP 1.  No change.

Fermanagh & South Tyrone: 2 DUP and 1 SF elected.  A UUP elimination should elect the other UUP candidate; then I expect the other two SF candidates to be elected; there probably aren't enough Unionist transfers for the SDLP.  So another likely no change.

Foyle: count complete, SDLP 2, SF 2, DUP 1, PBP 1.  PBP gain from SDLP.

Lagan Valley: count complete, DUP 3, UUP 2, Alliance 1.  UUP gain from DUP.

East Derry: 2 DUP elected so far.  I think the most likely outcome is for the other four to be Ind Sugden, SF, DUP3 and SDLP, which would only be a change of independent.

Mid Ulster: count complete, SF 3, DUP 1, SDLP 1, UUP 1. No change party-wise, but Ian McCrea, the son of the truly awful William, lost his seat to another DUP candidate.

Newry & Armagh: : count complete, SF 3, DUP 1, SDLP 1, UUP 1. No change.

"Strangford": count complete, DUP 3, UUP 2, Alliance 1. No change.  The SDLP still can't get in here; they were over 500 short on the final count.

West Tyrone: no-one elected yet.  However, it looks to me like SF 3, SDLP 1, DUP 1, UUP 1, which would be no change.

Upper Bann: 2 DUP elected so far.  I think this looks like no change too, which would mean the remaining four seats being 2 UUP and one each for the SDLP and SF; there are probably enough transfers around to get the SDLP ahead of SF2.

[ObserverIE]

Do PBP identity as nationalists or as "who care"?

They officially designate as "others". Their voters, on the other hand, would overwhelmingly identify as nationalist. Carroll's second preferences in West Belfast went:

SF: 1546.16
SDLP: 760.76
Green: 378.84
Alliance: 136.40
UUP: 14.96
DUP: 14.52

The SWP, whose front organisation PBP is, was "critically supportive" of the Provisionals during the conflict. The SP, on the other hand, whose front organisation is "Cross Community Labour Alternative", is in favour of a Socialist Federation of Ireland within a Socialist Federation of The British Isles, not that it's likely to bring up that particular ideological quirk on the doorsteps of either Jobstown or the Lisburn Road.

They just got a second seat.

McCann has been around Derry since the late 60s and is a media fixture.

[ObserverIE]

(All comparisons with 2011.)

East Belfast: count complete, DUP 3, Alliance 2, UUP 1.  Alliance gain from PUP.

No change.

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This is one where allegations of dodgy property dealings involving DUP figures played a part. The UUP candidate was a former DUP councillor who had been a whistleblower (and who previously defected from the UUP to DUP).

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Sugden had already been co-opted to the Assembly when McClarty died.

[Bacon King]

East Antrim: 2 DUP and 1 UUP elected so far.  An Alliance candidate is about to be eliminated, and transfers should then elect the other Alliance candidate; after that it's between SF, UKIP, DUP3 and UUP2 for two seats.

the last three seats were Alliance, DUP3, SF; the UKIP candidate was only 105 votes behind in the last round

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Your guess was correct!

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Unionist transfers not only got the SDLP candidate elected, they got him elected ahead of the second SF candidate

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this was right

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also right!

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still just 2 DUP, 1 UUP so far. In the current round of the count, I think UUP2 is about to be elected on transfers from the other UUP candidate, who was just eliminated. After that it looks like the SDLP will probably get in, but 2 SF is still possible

[Bacon King]

so that means the final results will be

DUP 38
SF 27 or 28
UUP 16
SDLP 12 or 13
APNI 8
Green 2
PBPA 2
TUV 1
indy 1

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Just pooping in to tell you how it looks from the outside of this board

Today at 09:51:05 am
in Re: Northern Ireland Ass...
by Bacon

[Bacon King]

Just pooping in to tell you how it looks from the outside of this board

Today at 09:51:05 am
in Re: Northern Ireland Ass...
by Bacon

( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

[Green Line]

Which side do Alliance candidates take more votes from? It looks like they do better in Unionist areas, why is that?

[YL]

I guessed Upper Bann wrong: SF did gain the SDLP seat so it ended up 2 each for SF, DUP and UUP.  Final result DUP 38, SF 28, UUP 16, SDLP 12, Alliance 8, Green 2, PBP 2, TUV 1, Ind (Sugden) 1.

(All comparisons with 2011.)

East Belfast: count complete, DUP 3, Alliance 2, UUP 1.  Alliance gain from PUP.

No change.

I was going on the list here which looks like it had the previous result for that constituency.  On the correct 2011 result, it was indeed no change.

[joevsimp]

Which side do Alliance candidates take more votes from? It looks like they do better in Unionist areas, why is that?

Stereotypical Alliance voters are Liberal middle class protestants.  Their constitutional position could be described as  "soft" unionist as they are in favour of maintaining the status quo until there is a majority vote to change it.

a key thing is that they tend to do best in areas where the unionist majority is fairly safe, hence them not getting a seat in North Belfast which is very close to 50/50 and protestants feel that they have to vote unionist to keep the Shinners out (although so is South Belfast, but it is much more liberal and middle class, and 15% there identify as neither catholic nor protestant)

as an armchair observer from a safe distance away, I'm a bit disappointed that Alliance didn't do better. They've probably alienated a number of potential voters over the flags dispute and voting alongside the nationalists on a lot of issues in local government.

I'm glad to see the "other" bench up from 9 to 12, even if two of them are Swappies, but I'd have preferred if not all of the gains had been from the nationalist side, Alliance were just too far behind to take any unionist seats like a third in East Belfast or a second in their existing constituencies, although they probably would've taken a seat from the SDLP in South Belfast if the Greens hadn't

[Famous Mortimer]

How would Alliance voters vote if NI was normal UK?

[joevsimp]

they are a sister party of the LibDems but some would probably vote tory and a few labour i think maybe

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They were once memorably described as being 'genuinely nonsectarian but not exactly working class orientated' which I think is about right...

[YL]

I think there is also a pattern for the Nationalist parties to underperform compared to the Catholic proportion of the population in areas where that is low.  For example, according to the census there are just about enough Catholics in Strangford that you'd expect a Nationalist seat, but they keep missing out.  That suggests that quite a few of them are voting Alliance.

And yes, they are a largely middle class party, but they must have got a decent number of working class votes when they won East Belfast, which would surely be a safe Labour seat if it had "normal UK" politics.  (As would West and North.  South would probably be an ancestrally Tory seat, which had gone Labour as the Tories declined in middle class urban areas but then gone Lib Dem in the Blair years, which would have gone back to Labour in 2015, something like Manchester Withington.)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So, we're seeing an opposition emerge in NI. probably for the best.

[Slow Learner]

Thanks be to gawd. Hopefully the shinners get raked over the coals.