Rank the competitive seats from most likely to least likely to flip
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  Rank the competitive seats from most likely to least likely to flip
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Author Topic: Rank the competitive seats from most likely to least likely to flip  (Read 2072 times)
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cxs018
Junior Chimp
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« on: May 06, 2016, 05:38:17 PM »

My ranking:

Wisconsin (Johnson)
Illinois (Kirk)
Florida (Rubio)
New Hampshire (Ayotte)
Nevada (Reid)
Ohio (Portman)
Pennsylvania (Toomey)
Arizona (McCain)
North Carolina (Burr)
Colorado (Bennet)
Missouri (Blunt)
Iowa (Grassley)
Indiana (Coats)
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2016, 08:55:09 PM »

I shall use 2014 flipped analogues as far as I can, not perfect.

Reid = Chambliss
Bennet = McConnell
Johnson = Walsh/Curtis
Kirk = Pryor
Portman = Udall
Ayotte = Begich
Rubio = T. Johnson
Toomey = Hagan/Warner (Lean Hagan)
Burr = Hagan/Warner (Lean Warner)
McCain = NY Gubernatorial 2014
Coats = Levin (Would've been Harkin if Stutzman were nominated, he'd have been the Braley...oh well.)
Grassley = Durbin

 
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2016, 09:02:30 PM »

MOST LIKELY:
Illinois
Wisconsin
Nevada
Florida
New Hampshire
Ohio
Arizona
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Missouri
Indiana
Georgia
Maryland
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #3 on: May 06, 2016, 10:06:08 PM »

Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Nevada
New Hampshire
Illinois
Florida
Indiana
Missouri
Ohio
Colorado
Arizona
Alaska
North Carolina
Georgia
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xingkerui
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« Reply #4 on: May 06, 2016, 11:55:49 PM »

I shall use 2014 flipped analogues as far as I can, not perfect.

Reid = Chambliss
Bennet = McConnell
Johnson = Walsh/Curtis
Kirk = Pryor
Portman = Udall
Ayotte = Begich
Rubio = T. Johnson
Toomey = Hagan/Warner (Lean Hagan)
Burr = Hagan/Warner (Lean Warner)
McCain = NY Gubernatorial 2014
Coats = Levin (Would've been Harkin if Stutzman were nominated, he'd have been the Braley...oh well.)
Grassley = Durbin


I'd say it's a bit more like this...

Reid = McConnell
Bennet = Chambliss
Johnson = Pryor/Landrieu
Kirk = Begich
Rubio = Harkin
Ayotte/Toomey = Hagan
Portman = Udall
Burr = Shaheen
McCain = Quinn/Malloy
Blunt = Hickenlooper
Coats = Levin
Grassley = Warner/Dayton

Anyway, I'd say:
Wisconsin
Illinois
Florida
New Hampshire
Ohio
Nevada
Pennsylvania
North Carolina
Arizona
Colorado
Missouri
(not really competitive)
Indiana
Iowa
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2016, 12:22:29 AM »

I shall use 2014 flipped analogues as far as I can, not perfect.

Reid = Chambliss
Bennet = McConnell
Johnson = Walsh/Curtis
Kirk = Pryor
Portman = Udall
Ayotte = Begich
Rubio = T. Johnson
Toomey = Hagan/Warner (Lean Hagan)
Burr = Hagan/Warner (Lean Warner)
McCain = NY Gubernatorial 2014
Coats = Levin (Would've been Harkin if Stutzman were nominated, he'd have been the Braley...oh well.)
Grassley = Durbin


I'd say it's a bit more like this...

Reid = McConnell
Bennet = Chambliss
Johnson = Pryor/Landrieu
Kirk = Begich
Rubio = Harkin
Ayotte/Toomey = Hagan
Portman = Udall
Burr = Shaheen
McCain = Quinn/Malloy
Blunt = Hickenlooper
Coats = Levin
Grassley = Warner/Dayton

Anyway, I'd say:
Wisconsin
Illinois
Florida
New Hampshire
Ohio
Nevada
Pennsylvania
North Carolina
Arizona
Colorado
Missouri
(not really competitive)
Indiana
Iowa

I will go:

Reid=Harkin
Bennet=Chambliss
Johnson=Hagan
Portman=Shaheen
Kirk=Landrieu
Rubio=No good fit, Perdue/Harkin hybrid?  Maybe with some Kagan/Warner/Udall elements?
Toomey=Warner
Ayotte=Shaheen
Grassley=Cornyn
McCain=Roberts
Coats=Johanns (that's not a prediction that Young will follow in Sasse's footsteps, though)
Blunt=Roberts
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #6 on: May 07, 2016, 04:06:19 AM »

100% wisconsin
75% illinois
60% florida
50% ohio
30% nevada
30% new hampshire
25% pennsylvania
20% arizona
20% north carolina
10% missouri
5% colorado
5% indiana
2% iowa
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DavidB.
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« Reply #7 on: May 07, 2016, 08:19:50 AM »

With Trump as GOP nominee, Nevada's not more likely to flip than Ohio or Missouri.

Wisconsin (Johnson)
Illinois (Kirk)
Florida (Rubio)
New Hampshire (Ayotte)
Ohio (Portman)
Pennsylvania (Toomey)
Missouri (Blunt)
Nevada (Reid)
North Carolina (Burr)
Arizona (McCain)
Indiana (Coats)
Iowa (Grassley)
Colorado (Bennet)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: May 07, 2016, 12:40:31 PM »

Ayotte
Johnson
Kirk
Reid
Rubio
Rob Portman
Pat Toomey
Bennett
McCain
Blunt


Long shots
Burr
Grassley
Coats
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Nyvin
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« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2016, 08:19:27 PM »

Wisconsin
Illinois
Florida
New Hampshire
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Missouri
Nevada
Indiana
North Carolina
Colorado
Iowa

Potentially D+11,  although that's extremely unlikely.   It helps that the two vulnerable Dem seats are both in Hispanic heavy states and Trump is at the top of the ticket for the GOP.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #10 on: May 07, 2016, 09:50:32 PM »
« Edited: May 07, 2016, 09:57:43 PM by Nyvin »

On Daily Kos's ratings the Republican seats match up almost exactly with my list.   They have the two Dem seats as more vulnerable though.   I think Trump will be too much of a drag on Republicans in CO and NV for them to be competitive though.

http://www.dailykos.com/pages/election-outlook/2016-race-ratings
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #11 on: May 13, 2016, 09:39:43 PM »

Wisconsin (Johnson) 75% Chance of Flipping
Illinois (Kirk) 60% Chance of Flipping
Florida (Rubio) 55% Chance of Flipping
New Hampshire (Ayotte) 50% Chance of Flipping
Ohio (Portman) 45% Chance of Flipping
Nevada (Reid) 41% Chance of Flipping
North Carolina (Burr) 40% Chance of Flipping
Pennsylvania (Toomey) 35% Chance of Flipping
Arizona (McCain) 25% Chance of Flipping
Missouri (Blunt) 12% Chance of Flipping
Colorado (Bennet) 10% Chance of Flipping
Iowa (Grassley) 7% Chance of Flipping
Indiana (Coats) 5% Chance of Flipping
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Figueira
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« Reply #12 on: September 07, 2016, 09:28:35 AM »

IL WI NH PA IN NC FL (NV) AZ MO OH -here the definition of "competitive" gets really broad- IA GA LA (CO)

Rest are equally safe.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: September 07, 2016, 02:03:24 PM »

NH, WI, IL, IN, NV, Pa & FL rest are safe
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« Reply #14 on: September 07, 2016, 02:16:33 PM »

Wisconsin
Illinois
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Indiana
Florida
North Carolina
Nevada
Arizona
Missouri
Ohio
Iowa
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: September 07, 2016, 02:32:03 PM »

NH, WI, IL, IN, NV, Pa & FL rest are safe

states to watch out for is OH and FL those will give Dems a 53-47 Senate NC & AZ, Clinton don't have to win those
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #16 on: September 08, 2016, 04:56:51 PM »

Wisconsin (80%)
Illinois, Nevada, New Hampshire (50%)
Arizona (45%)
Pennsylvania (40%)
Indiana, Florida, Virginia (35%)
Ohio (35%)
Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana (10%)
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #17 on: September 08, 2016, 09:16:36 PM »


Illinois
Wisconsin
Nevada
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Indiana
North Carolina
Florida
Missouri
Arizona
Ohio
Iowa
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xingkerui
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« Reply #18 on: September 08, 2016, 09:41:10 PM »

Wisconsin (80%)
Illinois, Nevada, New Hampshire (50%)
Arizona (45%)
Pennsylvania (40%)
Indiana, Florida, Virginia (35%)
Ohio (35%)
Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana (10%)

Huh Did you mean North Carolina?
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #19 on: September 08, 2016, 11:14:59 PM »

Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Nevada
New Hampshire
Illinois
Florida
Indiana
Missouri
Ohio
Colorado
Arizona
Alaska
North Carolina
Georgia

Changing to:
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Nevada
New Hampshire
Illinois
Indiana
Florida
North Carolina
Missouri
Arizona
Ohio
Georgia
Colorado
Alaska
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Maxwell
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« Reply #20 on: September 08, 2016, 11:33:12 PM »

Wisconsin (95%) [Johnson is basically out, the only question is the margin]

Illinois (95%) [This could be competitive in a banner Republican year, but this year I'd be surprised if Kirk didn't lose double digits]

Indiana (75%) [Bayh is still doing very well in most surveys. Young should keep it fairly close but, again, the surveys I've seen show it hard for him to win.]

New Hampshire (70%) [Ayotte has been trailing and it looks like Trump is going to bury her.]

Pennsylvania (55%) [This race is starting to look like a toss-up/tilt McGinty. Toomey has time to turn this around.]

Florida (45%) [So far this is narrow, but I'd give the advantage right now to Rubio.]

Nevada (30%) [This race seems very close, but I'd be surprised to see Heck win the same year that Trump loses this state by a solid margin.]

North Carolina (20%) [Ross is running a very good campaign against a very anonymous incumbent, but Burr still has the GOP machine with him so I'm picking Lean R for this race still]

Missouri (15%) [Kander is running the right kind of campaign and Blunt is a weak incumbent but Missouri's deep blue tread will keep Blunt in office. Hopefully Kander gets another shot at this]

Ohio (10%) [Opposite the Missouri situation - incumbent Rob Portman is running a very strong campaign, while opposition Ted Strickland is running a surprisingly weak one (modeled off of Tommy Thompson it seems). The difference, of course, is Ohio is an actual swing state. This is moving away from Democrats fast.]

Arizona (10%) [McCain is at his weakest point and Kirkpatrick is his strongest challenger. Most undecideds, however, are probably Republican leaning, so I suspect McCain pulls ahead in the final inning just like Flake did in 2012]

Georgia (2%) [The polling seems surprisingly competitive, but local Democrats seem to actually be backing Isakson over the Democrat. Likely R approaching Safe]

Iowa (2%) [Grassley seems to have stabilized a high single digit lead over Judge. It helps Grassley that Trump is doing surprisingly well here.]

Kentucky (0.5%) [Paul has received a decent opponent and will probably underperform Trump, but Paul has a crucial advantage in that Kentucky in presidential years is still very Republican. He will hold this seat for as long as he can]

Louisiana (0.25%) [never give up on the chance of a David Duke run-off]

Colorado (0%) [This could've been slightly competitive if a remotely decent challenger stepped up to the plate, but it was literal joke candidate in Darryl Glenn. Bennet is fine]
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« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2016, 01:13:18 PM »

Wisconsin
Illinois
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Indiana
Florida
North Carolina
Nevada
Arizona
Missouri
Ohio
Iowa

Thought I'd update this, especially since some of these races aren't competitive anymore.

1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. Pennsylvania
4. New Hampshire
5. North Carolina
6. Missouri
7. Indiana
8. Florida
(9. Nevada)
(10. Arizona)
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2016, 03:35:28 PM »

1. Illinois (99% chance of flipping)
2. Wisconsin (85% chance of flipping)
3. Pennsylvania (65% chance of flipping)
4. Nevada (55% chance of flipping)

5. New Hampshire (49% chance of flipping)
6. Missouri (40% chance of flipping)
7. North Carolina (35% chance of flipping)
8. Indiana (25% chance of flipping)
9. Florida (5% chance of flipping)


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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #23 on: November 04, 2016, 05:07:49 PM »

Wisconsin (Johnson) 75% Chance of Flipping
Illinois (Kirk) 60% Chance of Flipping
Florida (Rubio) 55% Chance of Flipping
New Hampshire (Ayotte) 50% Chance of Flipping
Ohio (Portman) 45% Chance of Flipping
Nevada (Reid) 41% Chance of Flipping
North Carolina (Burr) 40% Chance of Flipping
Pennsylvania (Toomey) 35% Chance of Flipping
Arizona (McCain) 25% Chance of Flipping
Missouri (Blunt) 12% Chance of Flipping
Colorado (Bennet) 10% Chance of Flipping
Iowa (Grassley) 7% Chance of Flipping
Indiana (Coats) 5% Chance of Flipping

Illinois (Kirk) 85% Chance of Flipping (+25)
Wisconsin (Johnson) 60% Chance of Flipping (-15)
Pennsylvania (Toomey) 60% Chance of Flipping (+25)
New Hampshire (Ayotte) 50% Chance of Flipping (-)
North Carolina (Burr) 49% Chance of Flipping (+9)
Missouri (Blunt) 47% Chance of Flipping (+35)
Indiana (Coats) 45% Chance of Flipping (+40)
Nevada (Reid) 43% Chance of Flipping (+2)
Florida (Rubio) 30% Chance of Flipping (-25)
Arizona (McCain) 27% Chance of Flipping (+2)
Ohio (Portman) 10% Chance of Flipping (-35)
Colorado  (Bennet) 10% Chance of Flipping (-)
Iowa (Grassley) 6% Chance of Flipping (-1)
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #24 on: November 05, 2016, 09:08:23 PM »

1. Illinois (97% chance of flipping)
2. Wisconsin (70% chance of flipping)
3. Pennsylvania (60% chance of flipping)
4. New Hampshire (51% chance of flipping)
5. Missouri (45% chance of flipping)
6. Nevada (45% chance of flipping)
7. Indiana (42% chance of flipping)
8. North Carolina (40% chance of flipping)
9. Florida (25% chance of flipping)
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