Rank the competitive seats from most likely to least likely to flip

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I shall use 2014 flipped analogues as far as I can, not perfect.

Reid = Chambliss
Bennet = McConnell
Johnson = Walsh/Curtis
Kirk = Pryor
Portman = Udall
Ayotte = Begich
Rubio = T. Johnson
Toomey = Hagan/Warner (Lean Hagan)
Burr = Hagan/Warner (Lean Warner)
McCain = NY Gubernatorial 2014
Coats = Levin (Would've been Harkin if Stutzman were nominated, he'd have been the Braley...oh well.)
Grassley = Durbin

I'd say it's a bit more like this...

Reid = McConnell
Bennet = Chambliss
Johnson = Pryor/Landrieu
Kirk = Begich
Rubio = Harkin
Ayotte/Toomey = Hagan
Portman = Udall
Burr = Shaheen
McCain = Quinn/Malloy
Blunt = Hickenlooper
Coats = Levin
Grassley = Warner/Dayton

Anyway, I'd say:
Wisconsin
Illinois
Florida
New Hampshire
Ohio
Nevada
Pennsylvania
North Carolina
Arizona
Colorado
Missouri
(not really competitive)
Indiana
Iowa

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Wisconsin
Illinois
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Indiana
Florida
North Carolina
Nevada
Arizona
Missouri
Ohio
Iowa

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Wisconsin (80%)
Illinois, Nevada, New Hampshire (50%)
Arizona (45%)
Pennsylvania (40%)
Indiana, Florida, Virginia (35%)
Ohio (35%)
Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana (10%)

Did you mean North Carolina?

[Xing]

Wisconsin
Illinois
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Indiana
Florida
North Carolina
Nevada
Arizona
Missouri
Ohio
Iowa

Thought I'd update this, especially since some of these races aren't competitive anymore.

1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. Pennsylvania
4. New Hampshire
5. North Carolina
6. Missouri
7. Indiana
8. Florida
(9. Nevada)
(10. Arizona)