Rank the competitive seats from most likely to least likely to flip (user search)

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Rank the competitive seats from most likely to least likely to flip (search mode)

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Topic: Rank the competitive seats from most likely to least likely to flip (Read 2081 times)

Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar

Posts: 33,207

Re: Rank the competitive seats from most likely to least likely to flip

« on: May 06, 2016, 08:55:09 PM »

I shall use 2014 flipped analogues as far as I can, not perfect.

Reid = Chambliss
Bennet = McConnell
Johnson = Walsh/Curtis
Kirk = Pryor
Portman = Udall
Ayotte = Begich
Rubio = T. Johnson
Toomey = Hagan/Warner (Lean Hagan)
Burr = Hagan/Warner (Lean Warner)
McCain = NY Gubernatorial 2014
Coats = Levin (Would've been Harkin if Stutzman were nominated, he'd have been the Braley...oh well.)
Grassley = Durbin

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Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar

Posts: 33,207

Re: Rank the competitive seats from most likely to least likely to flip

« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2016, 03:35:28 PM »

1. Illinois (99% chance of flipping)
2. Wisconsin (85% chance of flipping)
3. Pennsylvania (65% chance of flipping)
4. Nevada (55% chance of flipping)
5. New Hampshire (49% chance of flipping)
6. Missouri (40% chance of flipping)
7. North Carolina (35% chance of flipping)
8. Indiana (25% chance of flipping)
9. Florida (5% chance of flipping)

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