Rank the competitive seats from most likely to least likely to flip

[Maxwell]

Wisconsin (95%) [Johnson is basically out, the only question is the margin]

Illinois (95%) [This could be competitive in a banner Republican year, but this year I'd be surprised if Kirk didn't lose double digits]

Indiana (75%) [Bayh is still doing very well in most surveys. Young should keep it fairly close but, again, the surveys I've seen show it hard for him to win.]

New Hampshire (70%) [Ayotte has been trailing and it looks like Trump is going to bury her.]

Pennsylvania (55%) [This race is starting to look like a toss-up/tilt McGinty. Toomey has time to turn this around.]

Florida (45%) [So far this is narrow, but I'd give the advantage right now to Rubio.]

Nevada (30%) [This race seems very close, but I'd be surprised to see Heck win the same year that Trump loses this state by a solid margin.]

North Carolina (20%) [Ross is running a very good campaign against a very anonymous incumbent, but Burr still has the GOP machine with him so I'm picking Lean R for this race still]

Missouri (15%) [Kander is running the right kind of campaign and Blunt is a weak incumbent but Missouri's deep blue tread will keep Blunt in office. Hopefully Kander gets another shot at this]

Ohio (10%) [Opposite the Missouri situation - incumbent Rob Portman is running a very strong campaign, while opposition Ted Strickland is running a surprisingly weak one (modeled off of Tommy Thompson it seems). The difference, of course, is Ohio is an actual swing state. This is moving away from Democrats fast.]

Arizona (10%) [McCain is at his weakest point and Kirkpatrick is his strongest challenger. Most undecideds, however, are probably Republican leaning, so I suspect McCain pulls ahead in the final inning just like Flake did in 2012]

Georgia (2%) [The polling seems surprisingly competitive, but local Democrats seem to actually be backing Isakson over the Democrat. Likely R approaching Safe]

Iowa (2%) [Grassley seems to have stabilized a high single digit lead over Judge. It helps Grassley that Trump is doing surprisingly well here.]

Kentucky (0.5%) [Paul has received a decent opponent and will probably underperform Trump, but Paul has a crucial advantage in that Kentucky in presidential years is still very Republican. He will hold this seat for as long as he can]

Louisiana (0.25%) [never give up on the chance of a David Duke run-off]

Colorado (0%) [This could've been slightly competitive if a remotely decent challenger stepped up to the plate, but it was literal joke candidate in Darryl Glenn. Bennet is fine]