Austrian Presidential Election (RUNOFF) - Official Prediction Thread

[Bojicat]

If anything, turnout will go down now because centrist voters from Griss, SPÖ and ÖVP have no incentive anymore to vote for Hofer or VdB after their crappy debate performance.

Also, invalid ballots will spike. I guess more than 5% will invalidate their ballot ...

If you are referring the crappy debate performances of Griss, Hundstorfer and Khol a couple of month's ago, you are surely correct. Bear in mind also that so far, VDB has had intensely crappy debate performances versus Hofer as well, shocking no one, really, but the effect has been to cement negative views of VDB, and augment (to probably even the FPÖ's surprise) Hofer's image. Should turnout actually go down on election day, as you suspect, that would also benefit Hofer. Let's not forget that he had 1,499,971 votes versus VDB's 913,218, and there was a 14.2 point gap between Hofer's 35.1% and VDB's 21.3%. Should turnout be moderate or miserable (i.e. potential VDB voters staying home and/or lack of enthusiasm for VDB vs. solid voter devotion and support from the Hoferites) I don't see how on Earth VDB could make up the difference. It would, in fact, wind up a slaughter for VDB.

[Tender Branson]

If anything, turnout will go down now because centrist voters from Griss, SPÖ and ÖVP have no incentive anymore to vote for Hofer or VdB after their crappy debate performance.

Also, invalid ballots will spike. I guess more than 5% will invalidate their ballot ...

If you are referring the crappy debate performances of Griss, Hundstorfer and Khol a couple of month's ago, you are surely correct. Bear in mind also that so far, VDB has had intensely crappy debate performances versus Hofer as well, shocking no one, really, but the effect has been to cement negative views of VDB, and augment (to probably even the FPÖ's surprise) Hofer's image. Should turnout actually go down on election day, as you suspect, that would also benefit Hofer. Let's not forget that he had 1,499,971 votes versus VDB's 913,218, and there was a 14.2 point gap between Hofer's 35.1% and VDB's 21.3%. Should turnout be moderate or miserable (i.e. potential VDB voters staying home and/or lack of enthusiasm for VDB vs. solid voter devotion and support from the Hoferites) I don't see how on Earth VDB could make up the difference. It would, in fact, wind up a slaughter for VDB.

You are assuming that Hofer's voters from the first round are all turning out for him again ?

I don't really know ... With Faymann gone and a new Chancellor now in office (with good early favourable numbers), many Hofer-voters from the first round might also stay home this time because they already sent a signal to Faymann and SPÖVP.

Going from 35% (if all his voters turn out again) to 50%+ can still be very tough.

But we'll see.

[Tender Branson]

I have now updated my prediction to a 53-47 Van der Bellen win.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Turn-out will be at least as high as the last round and Hofer will win by a bigger marginal than people in general expects.

[Bojicat]

I have now updated my prediction to a 53-47 Van der Bellen win.

That's quite a dramatic turn-around from your earlier predictions, Tender. What changed your mind? Have new polls come out? I haven't seen any of substance. The last I saw showed the FPÖ gaining a large number of seats, mostly at the expense of the SPÖ and ÖVP. The Greens, unchanged.

[Tender Branson]

I have now updated my prediction to a 53-47 Van der Bellen win.

That's quite a dramatic turn-around from your earlier predictions, Tender. What changed your mind? Have new polls come out? I haven't seen any of substance. The last I saw showed the FPÖ gaining a large number of seats, mostly at the expense of the SPÖ and ÖVP. The Greens, unchanged.

Just a feeling that it will end like the French regional elections after all ... voters from Griss/SPÖ/ÖVP and additional non-voters in the cities coming around for VdB.

[Bojicat]

I have now updated my prediction to a 53-47 Van der Bellen win.

That's quite a dramatic turn-around from your earlier predictions, Tender. What changed your mind? Have new polls come out? I haven't seen any of substance. The last I saw showed the FPÖ gaining a large number of seats, mostly at the expense of the SPÖ and ÖVP. The Greens, unchanged.

Just a feeling that it will end like the French regional elections after all ... voters from Griss/SPÖ/ÖVP and additional non-voters in the cities coming around for VdB.

But is the atmosphere in Austria in the run-up to the May 22 elections equal to that in France ahead of their December 2015 regional elections, especially as Europe today is facing an unusually dramatic influx of refugees from the Middle East, South Asia and Africa this year?

Also, note that the regional voting system in France allowed for parties to 'gang up' against one particular party (i.e., LePen's) or play 'rotation games' (whichever party can beat the National Front better in one region gets to tackle it alone). That's not happening in Austria.

Plus, you're adding the right-of center ÖVP to your list of voters coming around for VdB and, more importantly, you are assuming that these voters are enthusiastic about going out and voting for this very uninspiring, very poor candidate, by any account.

You may be right for one reason in my view, the one reason that makes me pause too: an unusually high level of anti-Hoferism driving the electorate.  The thing is, it's just not there. It's a phantom, I see and hear nothing so far.

[Tender Branson]

I might as well switch back to a Hofer win in my final prediction.

It's possible again after the ORF's bizarre attack on Hofer about his "made-up" Israel visit.

[Tender Branson]

Even though I have no clue how it will end, I have now made my final prediction:

A 55-45 Hofer win, with a 74% turnout.

I don't see VdB overcoming the big rural/urban divide ...

[Tender Branson]

Just 25 hours left to post your predictions ...

[Tender Branson]

My predictions for ...

Salzburg (city): 51-49 Hofer
Zell am See (district): 61-39 Hofer
Zell am See (city): 59-41 Hofer

Vienna: 60-40 VdB
Vorarlberg: 52-48 Hofer
Lower Austria: 56-44 Hofer
Upper Austria: 56-44 Hofer
Tyrol: 57-43 Hofer
Salzburg (state): 58-42 Hofer
Burgenland: 59-41 Hofer
Carinthia: 60-40 Hofer
Styria: 61-39 Hofer

[Classic Conservative]

Van der Bellen 51%
Hofer 49%

But I have no idea what will happen. Also Tender what time do that polls close in Eastern Standard Time???

[Tender Branson]

Van der Bellen 51%
Hofer 49%

But I have no idea what will happen. Also Tender what time do that polls close in Eastern Standard Time???

That would be 11am (5pm here).

The precinct votes are all counted after 2-3 hours. Postal ballots will be counted Monday afternoon.

[Bojicat]

I still think it's going to be a Hofer landslide. The momentum is all his and press headlines seem to expect it "Austria poised to elect far-Right president" from the Telegraph, "Polls suggesting a Norbert Hofer Victory" from Euronews, and then you have indications of what's looming over the horizon, such as this headline from The Guardian released just a moment ago: "Fear of migrants and loathing of elites drive a small Austrian town to far right" or this headline from today's New York Times: "Migrant Crimes Add Volatile Element to Austria’s Election". It goes on.

So I expect

61% Hofer
39% VdB

[rob in cal]

  Bojicat, while I wouldn't be surprised to see a Hofer victory, 61% seems pretty high, as it would mean he would have had to win a really big majority of Griss and Khol voters to get there.  We'll know soon enough.

[aross]

Hofer 52.9%
VdB 47.1%

VdB to win Vienna, Vorarlberg and Tyrol.

[Donnie]

Hofer    52%
VdB       48%

[Tender Branson]

Polls close in 25 minutes.

If anyone wants to post a last-minute prediction, do it now ...

[DavidB.]

Van der Bellen 52.2%
Hofer 47.8%

[reciprocity]

I have no idea. I am still holding that Hofer will win with between 51-53% between of the vote.

[Bojicat]

Polls close in 25 minutes.

If anyone wants to post a last-minute prediction, do it now ...

How is it looking from your end? It's 50/50 now per derStandard.

[Bojicat]

97% of the vote in and it's still 50/50.

[DavidB.]

Almost all uncounted precincts seem to be in Vienna, Graz, and Innsbruck. Good news for VdB.

[Bojicat]

Now with just a handful of suburbs left, three in Vienna, the tally shows Hofer 50.23%, VdB at 49.77%. Hard to tell whether the results of these remaining suburbs will make the difference for VdB. Then we have about 900,000 mail-in votes coming Monday (that figure is an estimate, for sure).

[Bojicat]

All the Vienna suburbs are in and Hofer still ahead. The difference will come tomorrow with the counting of the mail-in votes.