Relative size of Pub anti Trump cohorts - which will be larger?

[Torie]

Presumably a greater percentage of moderate Pubs will vote for Hlllary rather than third party as compared to conservative Pubs, but that is not the question. Nor does the question involve the numbers of Pubs who usually vote who will not vote at all this time. The question is of those who vote, where will the greatest number of defections lie ideologically?

It is interesting that the anti Trumps are made up of two very distinct cohort of voters. I mean, what do I have in common with Randy Erickson (the rapid conservative Red State guy)? Not much. But neither of us is voting for Trump.

[ElectionsGuy]

Close to equal, more conservative if I had to guess, as Trump is a moderate (just not in the way we usually think of).

[yankeesfan]

Just as Trump's appeal in the GOP primary cut across the spectrum of moderate to very conservative, so too will the opposition to Trump.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

By far, the conservatives as they actually have legitimate gripes with him not destroying the safety net.

[Ljube]

Moderates already support Trump in huge numbers. Only some conservatives might defect.

[RR1997]

Moderates.

I think that most "true conservatives" who hate Donald Trump will eventually end up voting for him because of the Supreme Court and to stop Hillary Clinton.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Moderates.

I think that most "true conservatives" who hate Donald Trump will eventually end up voting for him because of the Supreme Court and to stop Hillary Clinton.

Ok, so we know the damage Trumpcan do to the conservative movement by losing. A Supreme Court justice or two, maybe he drags enough Senators down to give Dems a majority, worst case scenario (which would really be bad) is Dems get a narrow House majority as well. Both majorities would be short-lived, but that's not the point. Obviously, in that scenario, conservatives lose a considerable amount of influence in the years to come. The Supreme Court majority is likely gone, and repealing Obamacare will be a pipe dream for quite some time.

That damage is significant, but nobody is talking about his much damage Trump would do to the conservative movement by winning the election. He would remake the Republican Party into his party, the same way Ronald Reagan did when he won and made the Republicans the conservative party they are today. Trump would remake the party from the conservative/classical liberal/constitutionalist party it is today (at least if you go by its platform) into one based on his priorities: an identity politics party with fascist tendencies driven by populism. How much influence will conservatives have then? Do you think that will result in a conservative majority on the Court, or in the Senate?

Conservatives can "play the long game" by voting Trump and hoping he will pick good Supreme Court justices (I'm not convinced), or we can play the really long game and realize that if a Republican who blatantly rejects nearly all of the conservative principles that make up our party platform, conservatives' voices in government will be reduced far more than they ever could have been reduced by Hillary Clinton.

I think someone on the conservative side with power and relatively little to lose (maybe Ben Sasse or Mike Lee) will eventually make this case, and if they do, conservatives and establishmentarians will go for a third-party alternative. I'm still not sure which will be bigger, but the assumption that conservatives will just fall in line behind a non-conservative nominee is premature at best.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Which category are those who don't like Trump's stance against immigrants and also distrust that he cares about being pro-life and/or for small government?  Because that will describe a lot of these voters.

[Leinad]

I just hope an anti-Trump independent doesn't keep the Libertarian Party from getting to 5%. I mean, no one other than the Democrats or Republicans can win it in 2016, so why would you waste time, money, airtime, and, most importantly, votes on a temper-tantrum that you could instead put towards growing a real ideological movement.

Which category are those who don't like Trump's stance against immigrants and also distrust that he cares about being pro-life and/or for small government?  Because that will describe a lot of these voters.

Pro-life pseudo-libertarians and pro-immigrant conservatives/conservatarians. I guess I'd sort of be in this group, except not in the poll as I am not a Republican.

[Badger]

Which category are those who don't like Trump's stance against immigrants and also distrust that he cares about being pro-life and/or for small government?  Because that will describe a lot of these voters.

Socially conservative Hispanics and Asians?