FiveThirtyEight Demographic Calculator Revisited: Can you make Trump win?
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  FiveThirtyEight Demographic Calculator Revisited: Can you make Trump win?
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Author Topic: FiveThirtyEight Demographic Calculator Revisited: Can you make Trump win?  (Read 7447 times)
Maxwell
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« on: May 07, 2016, 09:32:46 PM »
« edited: May 07, 2016, 09:34:36 PM by Maxwell »

Find out if you can make Trump win with this nifty gadget!!!

Here is my results:


My Demographics
College-Educated Whites: 52% Trump, 70% Turnout
Non-College-Educated Whites: 66% Trump, 61% Turnout
Blacks: 91% Clinton, 72% Turnout
Hispanic: 79% Clinton, 63% Turnout
Asians/Other: 75% Clinton, 53% Turnout



S.O.S. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) - 53.6%, 347 EV's

Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY) - 44.7%, 191 EV's
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2016, 09:35:00 PM »

I just have a really hard time believing Trump will win 52% of college-educated whites, but I guess older ones might vote differently than the ones around my age.
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RFayette
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« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2016, 09:44:23 PM »

If we get that map, it would be a major blessing.  Could be much much worse.
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Vega
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« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2016, 09:49:54 PM »

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/26/demographics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.html

^
That one is much better and easy to use.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2016, 09:54:05 PM »


Eh - I think the distinction between College/Non-college Whites is very important.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2016, 10:03:56 PM »
« Edited: May 07, 2016, 10:26:16 PM by Ronnie »

That's an epic tool, and I'm going to be messing with it until election day.

Anyway, I interpolated these figures:

My Demographics
College-Educated Whites: 52% Clinton, 75% Turnout
Non-College-Educated Whites: 58% Trump, 57% Turnout
Blacks: 92% Clinton, 65% Turnout
Hispanic: 77% Clinton, 65% Turnout
Asians/Other: 75% Clinton, 55% Turnout
Total: 58.1% Clinton, 40.2% Trump

And ended up with this map:



I think that's about right, actually.  I'm skeptical that Clinton will end up on top in IN, though.  She has a better shot at flipping UT, LA, and the Dakotas than there, imo.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: May 07, 2016, 10:13:15 PM »

I'm amazed you made Mississippi flip.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #7 on: May 07, 2016, 10:15:37 PM »

I'm amazed you made Mississippi flip.

It's gunna happen.
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Santander
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« Reply #8 on: May 07, 2016, 10:25:37 PM »

I just have a really hard time believing Trump will win 52% of college-educated whites, but I guess older ones might vote differently than the ones around my age.
I could see it happening. A lot of suburbanite Republicans are going to hold their nose and vote for Trump. At least half of my Republican friends between 25-35 are planning to vote for Trump, even if they supported the likes of Kasich, Rubio and Bush in the primaries. More will come around as reality sinks in. There are also a decent number of college-educated folks who have blue-collar backgrounds, e.g. those who went to school on the GI Bill, and most of them are going to be voting for Trump.
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« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2016, 11:01:16 PM »


It's not going to happen. Mississippi's white population is the best suited for Trump of any state's white population. (Maybe 2nd to WV.)

It will be relatively close though thanks to the demographic mix. For having such a strong Republican reputation, we were Romney's 17th best state.
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muon2
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« Reply #10 on: May 07, 2016, 11:06:27 PM »

I just have a really hard time believing Trump will win 52% of college-educated whites, but I guess older ones might vote differently than the ones around my age.
I could see it happening. A lot of suburbanite Republicans are going to hold their nose and vote for Trump. At least half of my Republican friends between 25-35 are planning to vote for Trump, even if they supported the likes of Kasich, Rubio and Bush in the primaries. More will come around as reality sinks in. There are also a decent number of college-educated folks who have blue-collar backgrounds, e.g. those who went to school on the GI Bill, and most of them are going to be voting for Trump.

It's more than this. Think super-low turnout like 1996. College-educated white voters drop 6% to 70% turnout. However, young college-educated voters make up the majority of the drop and they are the more Dem fraction, so his percentage only drops 2% overall with college-educated whites.

I expect black turnout to drop 10% to around 56% putting them in line with non-college educated whites who drop 3% to 54% turnout. I also think that with such low turnout the Pub% could creep up 5% to 12% of the black vote.

The other minority groups become 3% more Dem, but drop 8% in turnout following the national trend of being between the white 6% and black 10% drop off in turnout.

Then all it takes is for Trump to increase his fraction of the non-college whites up to 70%. This can happen by dropping off some of the youth vote which is heavy Dem. The older non-college whites have been heavily trending Pub over the last few cycles, and its the group Trump has most concentrated on. At that point the 538 calculator gives Trump the win.

Try it.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #11 on: May 07, 2016, 11:17:50 PM »

I just have a really hard time believing Trump will win 52% of college-educated whites, but I guess older ones might vote differently than the ones around my age.
I could see it happening. A lot of suburbanite Republicans are going to hold their nose and vote for Trump. At least half of my Republican friends between 25-35 are planning to vote for Trump, even if they supported the likes of Kasich, Rubio and Bush in the primaries. More will come around as reality sinks in. There are also a decent number of college-educated folks who have blue-collar backgrounds, e.g. those who went to school on the GI Bill, and most of them are going to be voting for Trump.

It's more than this. Think super-low turnout like 1996. College-educated white voters drop 6% to 70% turnout. However, young college-educated voters make up the majority of the drop and they are the more Dem fraction, so his percentage only drops 2% overall with college-educated whites.

I expect black turnout to drop 10% to around 56% putting them in line with non-college educated whites who drop 3% to 54% turnout. I also think that with such low turnout the Pub% could creep up 5% to 12% of the black vote.

The other minority groups become 3% more Dem, but drop 8% in turnout following the national trend of being between the white 6% and black 10% drop off in turnout.

Then all it takes is for Trump to increase his fraction of the non-college whites up to 70%. This can happen by dropping off some of the youth vote which is heavy Dem. The older non-college whites have been heavily trending Pub over the last few cycles, and its the group Trump has most concentrated on. At that point the 538 calculator gives Trump the win.

Try it.

That is completely flying in the opposite direction of every shred of evidence we have so far about this election.   

The most viewed primary debates ever?

The highest primary turnout ever?

Soaring voter registration (especially for latinos)?

Probably the two most divisive candidates ever?

Why would you possibly think this will be a low turnout election?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: May 07, 2016, 11:26:20 PM »

I don't think Hispanic turnout is going to drop 8%.

But I appreciate muon2 putting together a potential Trump win.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #13 on: May 07, 2016, 11:27:33 PM »
« Edited: May 08, 2016, 05:52:17 PM by Likely Voter »

EDIT: I have reposted, there was an error in my original post


If the exercise is to make Trump win and be somewhat realistic, then I think it is something like this

My Demographics
College-Educated Whites: 54% Trump, 74% Turnout (Turnout and R share is down a bit)
Non-College-Educated Whites: 69% Trump, 61% Turnout (big surge for Trump with his base, he loves the uneducated)
Blacks: 90% Clinton, 61% Turnout (This go back to pre-Obama levels)
Hispanic: 76% Clinton, 52% Turnout (a bit worse than Romney but not too bad)
Asians/Other: 75% Clinton, 51% Turnout (a bit worse than Romney but not too bad)



Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY) - 48.6%, 273 EV's
S.O.S. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) - 49.6%, 265 EV's


NOTE: Clinton wins PV by 1% but still loses. This comes down to FL which is essentially tied (sound familiar?)
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #14 on: May 07, 2016, 11:28:37 PM »

The sliders are pretty annoying and hard to control, but here's a link you can edit to get a map for exact percentages (% GOP, % Turnout). It also looks like around 2% is given to Other, so setting 48% GOP would give you a 50% Dem rate.

http://53eig.ht/21wa4Aw#CEW:0.557;0.772,NCEW:0.617;0.567,Black:0.057;0.662,Latino:0.267;0.48,A/O:0.307;0.491
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #15 on: May 07, 2016, 11:38:46 PM »

College educated whites: Trump 52% - 75% turnout
Non-college whites: Trump 65% - 58% turnout
AA vote: Clinton 91% - 66% turnout
Latino: Clinton 77% - 54% turnout
Asian/others: Clinton 78% - 58% turnout

Outcome - Clinton 347 EV - 54.1% - Trump 191 EV - 44.2%

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The Other Castro
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« Reply #16 on: May 07, 2016, 11:47:17 PM »

Whenever I try to get Trump over 270, the closest win comes from picking up FL, IA, OH, WI, and NH.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #17 on: May 07, 2016, 11:52:01 PM »

Whenever I try to get Trump over 270, the closest win comes from picking up FL, IA, OH, WI, and NH.


No, you said it!!! TNVolunteer's spidey senses are tingling
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #18 on: May 07, 2016, 11:59:15 PM »

Whenever I try to get Trump over 270, the closest win comes from picking up FL, IA, OH, WI, and NH.


No, you said it!!! TNVolunteer's spidey senses are tingling

I guess a Trump win is officially impossible then. This demographics tool would be much more accurate if it had an angry woman slider.
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Santander
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« Reply #19 on: May 08, 2016, 12:20:30 AM »


Clinton: 266, 48.3%
Trump: 272, 49.9%

College-educated whites: 54% Trump, 77% Turnout
Non-college whites: 66% Trump, 69% Turnout
Blacks: 14% Trump, 65% Turnout
Hispanics: 29% Trump, 50% Turnout
Asians: 31% Trump, 49% Turnout

Trump gets within 0.1% in WI and PA and 0.2% in NH.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #20 on: May 08, 2016, 12:22:53 AM »

I don't think Hispanic turnout is going to drop 8%.

But I appreciate muon2 putting together a potential Trump win.

Yeah, I don't see Hispanic turnout dropping at all from 2012, let alone 8%. That is just totally at odds with all of the available evidence.
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Badger
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« Reply #21 on: May 08, 2016, 12:38:51 AM »

If the exercise is to make Trump win and be somewhat realistic, then I think it is something like this

My Demographics
College-Educated Whites: 54% Trump, 74% Turnout (Turnout and R share is down a bit)
Non-College-Educated Whites: 69% Trump, 61% Turnout (big surge for Trump with his base, he loves the uneducated)
Blacks: 90% Clinton, 61% Turnout (This go back to pre-Obama levels)
Hispanic: 79% Clinton, 63% Turnout (a bit worse than Romney but not too bad)
Asians/Other: 75% Clinton, 53% Turnout (a bit worse than Romney but not too bad)



Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY) - 49.1%, 273 EV's
S.O.S. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) - 49.1%, 265 EV's



This Trump wins scenario is the one making the most sense thus far. Though I agree it just doesn't seem at all likely.
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Ljube
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« Reply #22 on: May 08, 2016, 07:04:21 AM »

FiveThirtyEight Demographic Calculator is unusable for 2016 election.
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muon2
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« Reply #23 on: May 08, 2016, 07:21:16 AM »

I don't think Hispanic turnout is going to drop 8%.

But I appreciate muon2 putting together a potential Trump win.

Yeah, I don't see Hispanic turnout dropping at all from 2012, let alone 8%. That is just totally at odds with all of the available evidence.

These are the percentages of the voter eligible population that voted since 1980 according to Dr. Michael McDonalds US Elections Project:

1980   54.2      1982   42
1984   55.2      1986   38.1
1988   52.8      1990   38.4
1992   58.1      1994   41.1
1996   51.7      1998   38.1
2000   54.2      2002   39.5
2004   60.1      2006   40.4
2008   61.6      2010   41
2012   58.2      2014   35.9

The last three presidential elections have been historically high in the era since suffrage was lowered to 18. Swings of 5-6% up or down are not unusual. 1988 had uninspiring candidates after two terms of a highly motivating president. 1996 had a Dem president fighting off scandal charges vs an uninspiring Pub nominee. Neither of those cycles had any major economic or other crisis (eg 9/11 for 2004) to move voters to the polls, which is also true this cycle.

I used an 8% Hispanic drop as something between a 5% white drop and 10% black drop. If I drop the Hispanics only 4%, less than the population as a whole, Trump still wins on the calculator assuming he takes 70% of non-college educated whites.
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Torie
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« Reply #24 on: May 08, 2016, 07:24:54 AM »

On this college educated whites thing, is the size of this cohort based on what people claim their level of education is, or what it actually is? The claims far exceed the reality. Call it resume padding. Even more ludicrous, is the number who claim they have graduate degrees. Smiley
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