Will Clinton win Orange County?

[catographer]

Suburban whites and a healthy dose of Hispanics make Orange County look ready to potentially swing Democratic. It would be the first time since 1936 that the Democrat won the county in a Presidential election.
Demographics (2010 census): 44.0% Non-Hispanic White, 33.7% Hispanic of any race, 17.9% Asian, 1.7% African-American.
2012 Presidential election: Romney 51.9% Obama 45.8%
2008 Presidential election: McCain 50.2% Obama 47.7%

[LLR]

Why wouldn't the county named orange voted for the man colored orange?

[HAnnA MArin County]

It'd be great if she did, but I worry that Trump could play well here with the white racists that allegedly plague the county. I could see her getting 48-49 percent of the vote, but I'll give Trump the edge right now. That being said, most polls right now show her doing better with whites than Obama, so I'd rate it as a complete tossup with a probable Trump lean.

[Kingpoleon]

The Atlas "memes" supported by polls are a whole lot better than this Atlas #analysis which doesn't have any polls to prove it and which is supported by over ninety percent of the current voters in this poll.

[President Johnson]

No.

[KingSweden]

I'll believe it when I see it.

[Torie]

Clinton will win every Orange County in the United States, except the ones in Virginia, Texas and Indiana. As to the one in CA, Clinton may win it by as much as 10 points. Orange County is thin on the ground, very thin on the ground, when it comes to working class whites. Most of their old hoods are now Hispanic, or Asian.

[Torie]

It'd be great if she did, but I worry that Trump could play well here with the white racists that allegedly plague the county. I could see her getting 48-49 percent of the vote, but I'll give Trump the edge right now. That being said, most polls right now show her doing better with whites than Obama, so I'd rate it as a complete tossup with a probable Trump lean.

You clearly don't know OC very well.

[Brittain33]

Yes, Trump will do well with people who feel economically left behind in poor areas or socially left behind in diverse and prosperous areas, and Orange County has moved too far from that coalition to give Trump a majority here.

[TDAS04]

I think she will, considering all the Hispanics and Asians who now live there.

The Vietnamese are the largest Asian group there.  They've been traditionally Republican, but have been trending Democratic very fast.

[RR1997]

Clinton will easily defeat Trump in OC.

[Asian Nazi]

No, the Vietnamese will save Trump here.

[HAnnA MArin County]

No, the Vietnamese will save Trump here.

Cubans, another Republican-leaning minority, do not think highly of Trump, so I'm going to assume that Vietnamese do not either, especially with all of his anti-immigration build a wall crap. The Vietnamese didn't take too kindly to Willard touting the self-deportation in 2012, so I don't see how Trump's even more extreme immigration policies will win him over any minorities.

Also, the heavily Vietnamese cities swung strongly towards Obama in 2012. If the GOP and Trump keep up the draconian anti-immigration rhetoric, I highly doubt the Vietnamese will vote for them.

Westminster (47.28% Asian, 84.61% Vietnamese)
2008: McCain 56.19% - Obama 42.17% = R+ 14.02
2012: Obama 50.11% - Romney 47.69% = D+ 2.42
Swing: D+ 16.44

Garden Grove (36.94% Asian, 75.14% Vietnamese)
2008: McCain 51.19% - Obama 46.88% = R+ 4.31
2012: Obama 53.63% - Romney 44.12% = D+ 9.51
Swing: D+ 13.82

Also, Vietnamese don't make up a large share of the Asian population in La Palma, but it is a plurality Asian city that resembled the results from above:

La Palma (47.74% Asian, 33.86% Korean, 25.69% Filipino)
2008: McCain 49.74% - Obama 48.55% = R+ 1.19
2012: Obama 49.34% - Romney 48.84% = D+ 0.50
Swing: D+ 1.69

[All Along The Watchtower]

No, but Trump will win it by a very narrow margin.

[Sbane]

If there is at least a 2-3 point swing towards Hillary, she should win it. Trump will likely get thumped in the Vietnamese areas and will do poorly in the south county (even if he narrowly wins it). I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary wins Irvine by more than a 20 point margin.

[tallguy23]

OC is only Republican because of wealthy whites and working class whites (who are slowly disappearing from the area). Latinos and Asians now make up the majority and they do not like Trump at all.

 It could happen but it'll be close either way.

[publicunofficial]

Yes. At the same time, I expect Trump to finally be the Republican who carries Eliot County, KY.

[Mr. Illini]

I tend to think not. Although Trump will not play well with suburban whites, Orange County has shown repeatedly that it is less elastic and more conservative than other wealthy suburban counties. It didn't vote for Obama in 08, when he did very well in suburban New York, suburban Philly, suburban Baltimore, suburban Denver, suburban St Louis, suburban Chicago, suburban Columbus, suburban Portland, etc etc.

I think Trump will still carry it, barring a Clinton landslide.