Ann Coulter: Trump could crush the EC with slight increase in white vote in MW
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  Ann Coulter: Trump could crush the EC with slight increase in white vote in MW
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Author Topic: Ann Coulter: Trump could crush the EC with slight increase in white vote in MW  (Read 1093 times)
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« on: May 08, 2016, 05:33:30 PM »

Month old article, but how many agree with her analysis?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/04/01/ann_coulter_trump_could_crush_the_electoral_college_by_slightly_increasing_the_white_vote_in_the_industrial_midwest.html

[quote]Where [Trump] needs to win is the industrial midwest, some of the purple states on the coast, and contrary to what the media has been telling us -- Thanks to this guy Stuart Stevens who lost a winnable campaign in 2012, they have this idea there are no more white votes to be had.

Romney lost the white vote. Or nearly lost the white vote in ten major purple states.

Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, N.H., Maine, Illinois, Colorado, have I named ten yet?

[Editor's note: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin?]

If Trump can slightly increase the white vote in these big industrial states in the midwest.

And by the way, Maine went for Ross Perot, I think Trump will be popular there.

All he needs is a handful of states.
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standwrand
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« Reply #1 on: May 08, 2016, 05:35:11 PM »

There aren't enough white people.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #2 on: May 08, 2016, 05:37:09 PM »

Not IL and ME.

Swing states:
CO, FL, IA, MI, MN, VA, NH, OH, PA, WI?
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #3 on: May 08, 2016, 05:38:58 PM »

Not IL and ME.

Swing states:
CO, FL, IA, MI, MN, VA, NH, OH, PA, WI?

ME could vote LePage but not Trump?
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Nyvin
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« Reply #4 on: May 08, 2016, 05:41:59 PM »

Not IL and ME.

Swing states:
CO, FL, IA, MI, MN, VA, NH, OH, PA, WI?

ME could vote LePage but not Trump?

Trump won't be in a three way race like LePage was.

Also - Trump is not winning Illinois, Colorado, or Minnesota.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #5 on: May 08, 2016, 05:47:11 PM »

This. Greg Sargent did a very good analysis of just how well Trump would have to do with the white vote in Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin to overcome the Democratic advantage, and it is pretty much impossible.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/03/21/donald-trump-will-almost-certainly-never-be-elected-president-heres-why/?tid=a_inl

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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: May 08, 2016, 05:51:01 PM »

Let's dispel with this fiction that Trump can win the Upper Midwest states.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #7 on: May 08, 2016, 05:56:52 PM »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/03/21/donald-trump-will-almost-certainly-never-be-elected-president-heres-why/?tid=a_inl

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SteveRogers
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« Reply #8 on: May 08, 2016, 06:15:41 PM »

Who?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #9 on: May 08, 2016, 06:16:56 PM »

Trump won't be in a three way race like LePage was.

Uh, LePage would have won reelection in 2014 even without Cutler in the race.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #10 on: May 08, 2016, 06:28:30 PM »
« Edited: May 08, 2016, 06:30:41 PM by Nyvin »

Trump won't be in a three way race like LePage was.

Uh, LePage would have won reelection in 2014 even without Cutler in the race.

He didn't get a majority so that's literally impossible to know, polling suggest Michaud had a lead against LePage by himself, so I would argue LePage would've lost.    

Also it was a midterm election in a good Republican year,  so not exactly apples to apples.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #11 on: May 08, 2016, 06:36:15 PM »

I guess since you're posting a specific 'analysis' from her it's ok.  But, my personal view is that there are approx 320m people in the U.S, and in any discussion of the political thoughts of those 320m people, Ann Coulter would be the 320 millionth person I'd be interested in having a discussion on.
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« Reply #12 on: May 08, 2016, 06:56:48 PM »

He didn't get a majority so that's literally impossible to know.   

So it's impossible to know whether George H. W. Bush would have won reelection without Perot?

Yes? I've seen good arguments from both sides on that one.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #13 on: May 08, 2016, 06:58:52 PM »

He didn't get a majority so that's literally impossible to know.   

So it's impossible to know whether George H. W. Bush would have won reelection without Perot?

Yes? I've seen good arguments from both sides on that one.

There is no good argument that George H W Bush would have won had Perot not been on the ballot.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #14 on: May 08, 2016, 06:59:45 PM »

Clinton was leading the election pretty decisively July through early October when Perot dropped back in. At the time the Bush camp was elated since they figured they would be able to draw even with Clinton, though after the election they blamed Perot for his loss. When you look at Dukakis states like IA & WI, it's clear Perot hurt Clinton just as much as Bush.
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Figueira
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« Reply #15 on: May 08, 2016, 07:08:27 PM »

Trump won't be in a three way race like LePage was.

Uh, LePage would have won reelection in 2014 even without Cutler in the race.

He didn't get a majority so that's literally impossible to know, polling suggest Michaud had a lead against LePage by himself, so I would argue LePage would've lost.    

Also it was a midterm election in a good Republican year,  so not exactly apples to apples.

Also, gubernatorial elections are not presidential elections.
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emailking
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« Reply #16 on: May 08, 2016, 07:12:24 PM »


All of those hypothetical improvement numbers should be half the values that are quoted. e.g. going from 53 to 62 is an improvement of 9 point, not 18.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #17 on: May 08, 2016, 07:15:38 PM »

Trump would be lucky to match Romney's numbers with whites. He's very likely to do worse.
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Badger
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« Reply #18 on: May 08, 2016, 07:34:16 PM »

He didn't get a majority so that's literally impossible to know.   

So it's impossible to know whether George H. W. Bush would have won reelection without Perot?

It's easy to know considering exit polls showed Clinton was the second choice of the majority of Perot voters.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #19 on: May 08, 2016, 07:37:25 PM »

Trump won't be in a three way race like LePage was.

Uh, LePage would have won reelection in 2014 even without Cutler in the race.
In 2014, LePage got about 48% of the vote.  Polls still showed him narrowly up in a two way race against Michaud.  Also, one cannot assume all the Cutler voters would have voted in a two way race, some may have stayed home, or maybe even voted for LePage.
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Badger
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« Reply #20 on: May 08, 2016, 07:39:23 PM »

Trump won't be in a three way race like LePage was.

Uh, LePage would have won reelection in 2014 even without Cutler in the race.
In 2014, LePage got about 48% of the vote.  Polls still showed him narrowly up in a two way race against Michaud.  Also, one cannot assume all the Cutler voters would have voted in a two way race, some may have stayed home, or maybe even voted for LePage.

GOP wave year election where the winner didn't have foreign policy/military decision-making responsibilities. Apples to watermelons.
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Camaro33
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« Reply #21 on: May 08, 2016, 07:43:19 PM »

Trump will be lucky to match Romney's overall with whites. Trump will fail epically if his non-college white share of the vote doesn't beat Romney. He will need to improve the noncollege white vote to 66% AND increase their turnout to about 70% to be competitive, leaving all others equal. A tough task.
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« Reply #22 on: May 08, 2016, 07:43:29 PM »


All of those hypothetical improvement numbers should be half the values that are quoted. e.g. going from 53 to 62 is an improvement of 9 point, not 18.

Well I don't think the working class really liked either option last time?  Most Trump supporters I know are the white, working-class male.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #23 on: May 08, 2016, 08:17:10 PM »


All of those hypothetical improvement numbers should be half the values that are quoted. e.g. going from 53 to 62 is an improvement of 9 point, not 18.

I think it's including the Democratic vote going down as one point and the Republican vote going up as another.

In other words...you not only have to convince someone to "not" vote for Hillary, you also need to convince them to vote for Trump.

...or at least something like that...I don't know :-S
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136or142
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« Reply #24 on: May 08, 2016, 08:45:37 PM »

Trump won't be in a three way race like LePage was.

Uh, LePage would have won reelection in 2014 even without Cutler in the race.
In 2014, LePage got about 48% of the vote.  Polls still showed him narrowly up in a two way race against Michaud.  Also, one cannot assume all the Cutler voters would have voted in a two way race, some may have stayed home, or maybe even voted for LePage.

I believe many of the people who voted for LePage regret their vote.  So, baring another Ebola outbreak or something similar happening right before the election, I don't think Maine voters will be fooled a third time.
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