Trump won't be in a three way race like LePage was.
Uh, LePage would have won reelection in 2014 even without Cutler in the race.
In 2014, LePage got about 48% of the vote. Polls still showed him narrowly up in a two way race against Michaud. Also, one cannot assume all the Cutler voters would have voted in a two way race, some may have stayed home, or maybe even voted for LePage.
GOP wave year election where the winner didn't have foreign policy/military decision-making responsibilities. Apples to watermelons.