1976 3 Way Madness: George McGovern vs. Gerald Ford Vs. Ronald Reagan
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  1976 3 Way Madness: George McGovern vs. Gerald Ford Vs. Ronald Reagan
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Author Topic: 1976 3 Way Madness: George McGovern vs. Gerald Ford Vs. Ronald Reagan  (Read 980 times)
Dancing with Myself
tb75
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« on: May 08, 2016, 10:40:02 PM »

I am doing a scenario in PE 1988 with this race and it's been fun and it's close to the end so I'll have the results here in a few. But I wanna hear you folk's take.


Let's say this happens:

-McGovern wins the nom for the Dems in 1976. Either he doesn't run in 1972, doesn't win that year, or does better than he did in RL.  He finishes a little short of the nom as he has a rough race from Carter so they agree for a unity ticket letting Carter have VP and some platform ideas.

-The Rep race is extremely close and there is no winner by the end but something happens and Reagan bolts taking the conservatives with him. He gets the AI nomination and has Helms as his VP, while Ford wins easily and picks George Bush.



What do you think would happen here? Easy to Moderate McGovern win, a House election, or an upset win for Jerry?
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Dancing with Myself
tb75
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« Reply #1 on: May 08, 2016, 11:24:04 PM »

Off my PE 1988 Sim:





McGovern/Carter-332 EV's, 39%

Ford/Bush-206 EV's,  38%

Reagan/Helms-0 EV's, 23%



Race is close the entire time. Ford lead until halfway but thanks to many debates McGovern came back thanks to several solid Reagan performances as he jumps 10 points from 13% at the start and costs Ford the election. McGovern never leads thanks to himself rather it's Reagan killing Ford.

McGovern only won 1 debate while Reagan won the rest. Debates as in RL killed Ford here. He looses Michigan due to the split and McGovern pulls out a win nobody wanted.


Reagan's best states were Utah and Idaho at 27%
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #2 on: May 09, 2016, 04:09:02 PM »


300: Ford/Christopher(41.4%)
122: McGovern/Kennedy(33.3%)
116: Reagan/Thurmond(24.8%)
Others: 0.5%

Reagan campaigned mostly in the South and West, narrowly losing Utah, Arizona, and California. Former Mayor George Christopher, despite not holding office in twelve years, proved himself an able campaigner, especially in criticizing the other two candidates in the West. Keynote Speaker Howard Baker, despite being on the right-wing side of the moderate wing, proclaimed the Republican Party "Has the biggest tent. We have nominated a moderate, Former President Gerald Ford, and a liberal, Former Mayor George Christopher. However, one of the biggest supporters of the ticket is Robert Dole, a conservative. After over a decade of lies and corruption and division in the Johnson-Nixon era, we nominate an honest man of an honest party with the biggest tent. No one ideology is always right, but this Republican Party, the Party of Lincoln, Eisenhower and Ford, has no room in its tent for the bigotry of Mr. Thurmond. While the state parties may endorse them, we cannot support the segregationists of Mr. Reagan's base nor the socialists of Mr. McGovern's base."

Ford wins by mentioning his tax cuts, raising spending slightly, and the improving economy. In the debates, he waits until the other two attack each other and then joins in on denouncing their extremism. At the second and final debate, on October 30, Reagan says, "It's not that I support segregationists. It's that I am supported by them and I respect them and their views far more than my opponents' views." After McGovern interrupts for a similar statement about socialism, Ford cuts in on both of their defenses. "There you two go again: having a dfferent position to a national audience than to the Deep South or certain college campuses. You two are very similar in the way Johnson and Nixon were similar. They were centre-left and center-right, corrupt, and liars. You two are far-left and far-right, pandering, changing chameleons. When you two change to fit your background, you show both of you will continue the Johnson-Nixon era and the Johnson-Nixon way!"
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Dancing with Myself
tb75
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« Reply #3 on: May 12, 2016, 10:38:40 PM »

Not bad King N.

About like I would have predicted, the sim was a little too biased on McGovern reaching moderates lol.  Kennedy would have been a better VP than Carter. Reagan risked a little too much for Thurmond but I see him either winning the south or causing the Dems to win it.

Not a bad map though. I need to put your version into the simulator and see what happens.

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Dancing with Myself
tb75
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« Reply #4 on: May 12, 2016, 10:54:47 PM »




King, your scenario in PE 1988.

Ford gets a landslide and Reagan does 2 points better. Reagan owns the debates again but McGovern kills his chances with gaffe's galore.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #5 on: May 13, 2016, 03:51:38 PM »

I honestly think Reagan would lose MO, AR, VA, NC, and TN, but I thought that would seem a little too biased. I honestly can't see Reagan running third party, though. Goldwater or Thurmond, yes, they had either a clear ideological consistency or were obviously opposed to both major candidates.
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