Austrian Chancellor Faymann (Social Dem) resigns

[Tender Branson]

This probably deserves its own thread here:

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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36245316

[Tender Branson]

Vienna-mayor Michael Häupl will be the new interim SPÖ-leader until an SPÖ convention is held later in November.

A new SPÖ-leader will be picked within the next week, who will then run for party leader in the November convention.

The most likely successors for Faymann are the CEO of the Austrian Railway, Christian Kern and media manager Gerhard Zeiler. Kern is more likely though.

[Tender Branson]

The NYT has a better "political obituary" for Faymann and how it ended up this way:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/10/world/europe/austrian-chancellor-werner-faymann-resign.html

[Tender Branson]

New details from the Häupl press conference:

* A new SPÖ party leader will be chosen until next Tuesday.

* This new party leader will be elected at a national party conference in Vienna on June 25.

* After this new party leader is elected, he (or she ?) will become Chancellor of Austria.

* A 2nd convention will be held in the fall to draft and sign off a new party platform.

[Tender Branson]

That was quick:

* In the last hour, Austrian President Fischer (SPÖ) has already discharged Faymann (SPÖ) from the office of Chancellor and asked Vice-Chancellor Reinhold Mitterlehner from the conservative ÖVP to become the new interim Chancellor (of course he agreed).

[Famous Mortimer]

The Guardian is pushing this as the party disagreeing with Faymann's stance AGAINST the FPO and wanting to work with them:

"Some within the SPÖ were angry about Faymann’s tough asylum policy, while others objected to his adamant opposition to forming coalitions with the FPÖ, whose candidate, Norbert Hofer, won the first round of the presidential vote on an anti-Islam and Eurosceptic platform.

The minister for the chancellory, Josef Ostermayer, suggested on Saturday the party could cooperate with the FPÖ on the provincial and municipal level – where much of the political power is held in federalised Austria – but keep separate at the national level."

[Tender Branson]

The Guardian is pushing this as the party disagreeing with Faymann's stance AGAINST the FPO and wanting to work with them:

"Some within the SPÖ were angry about Faymann’s tough asylum policy, while others objected to his adamant opposition to forming coalitions with the FPÖ, whose candidate, Norbert Hofer, won the first round of the presidential vote on an anti-Islam and Eurosceptic platform.

The minister for the chancellory, Josef Ostermayer, suggested on Saturday the party could cooperate with the FPÖ on the provincial and municipal level – where much of the political power is held in federalised Austria – but keep separate at the national level."

Yes, indeed.

The SPÖ was basically lacerated internally in the last few weeks/months about how to deal with the FPÖ on the state and federal level. Many within the SPÖ wanted closer co-operation with the FPÖ (such as Burgenland-Gov. Niessl, who actually formed an SPÖ-FPÖ coalition there last year), or many unionists (who see many of their blue collar workers abandoning their party in droves for the FPÖ. On the other hand, you have ideologically left-wing SPÖ folks (mostly in Vienna) who were strongly opposed to any co-operation with the FPÖ.

This topic will now be debated extensively in the fall convention, but I guess the deep intra-party-split will remain ... Anyway, I guess the SPÖ's most likely path now is the opposition path (where it can recover for a few years), because FPÖVP looks very likely after the 2017/18 election.

[Tender Branson]

The recent events here in Austria are very similar to the events in Poland in the past years:

First, the PM steps down.

Then, an opposition candidate wins the Presidency in an upset. No matter if Hofer or VdB win the May 22 runoff, they are still opposition candidates who will win in an upset. But Hofer of course would be more comparable with the Poland scenario.

And finally, new parliamentary elections are held - which the right-wing populists win (PiS and FPÖVP here).

[Representative simossad]

Great news.

I hope that the SPÖ will recover and learn how to be a serious and honest social-democratic alternative. Furthermore, I hope that the long-established parties will regain the people's trust and faith, considering their achievements in the post-war era and in the late 20th century.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Good to see him gone.

The most likely successors for Faymann are the CEO of the Austrian Railway, Christian Kern and media manager Gerhard Zeiler. Kern is more likely though.

How come those two are the front runners and not some other minister or state governor?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How come those two are the front runners and not some other minister or state governor?

Austria, Swedish Cheese; Sweedish Cheese, Austria. I don't believe you've met.

[Simfan34]

How come those two are the front runners and not some other minister or state governor?

Austria, Swedish Cheese; Sweedish Cheese, Austria. I don't believe you've met.

Would that also explain why Faymann's decision to cap refugee admissions, according the BBC article at least, was poorly received by the unions, of all groups? One would think they would welcome less, not more, low-cost nonunionised labor sloshing into the country, as is usually their stance elsewhere, and especially given the inclinations of an increasing number of their constituents.

[Tender Branson]

How come those two are the front runners and not some other minister or state governor?

Austria, Swedish Cheese; Sweedish Cheese, Austria. I don't believe you've met.

Would that also explain why Faymann's decision to cap refugee admissions, according the BBC article at least, was poorly received by the unions, of all groups? One would think they would welcome less, not more, low-cost nonunionised labor sloshing into the country, as is usually their stance elsewhere, and especially given the inclinations of an increasing number of their constituents.

The union's positions on the asylum issue generally run along the lines of the SPÖ's positions, which means it's totally mixed, incoherent and changes over time: Much like within the party, there are union representatives for the SPÖ who favour immediate work permits for all asylum seekers who are coming, then there are the centrists who favour a waiting period until their asylum status is checked/confirmed/denied and then there are the "blue-dog" Social Democrats who favour closer co-operation with the FPÖ and no work-permits for asylum seekers to protect Austrian workers from wage-dumping etc. In general, you cannot say the unions have a uniform position on this issue.

[Tender Branson]

Good to see him gone.

The most likely successors for Faymann are the CEO of the Austrian Railway, Christian Kern and media manager Gerhard Zeiler. Kern is more likely though.

How come those two are the front runners and not some other minister or state governor?

A cabinet member or state governor would be seen as too establishment. If you want a new start as a party, you need people from "outside" who give the party a new paint and new traction ...

[aross]

A cabinet member or state governor would be seen as too establishment. If you want a new start as a party, you need people from "outside" who give the party a new paint and new traction ...

As I said on the other thread, I fail to see how people who spent their whole life in the SPÖ's business and media empire - with a few cushy party jobs in-between - are "outsiders". They've both been at the centre of power in the party for longer than Faymann has! Furthermore, given that both of them have outlined preciously few principles, strategies or policies so far, I would hardly describe them as a fresh start or "new paint" either. Sure, I get that it's the media narrative (something which may be somewhat related to the aforementioned empire...), but that doesn't mean one has to kid oneself into believing it.


Faymann has actually genuinely managed to shaft the SPÖ via seppuku. A month's worth more squabbles and sniping, and there would almost certainly been a wide enough rift for an open debate with several candidates, possibly even some form of membership participation (which several SPÖ notables have now dismissed as "ridiculous" and "absurd", make what you want of that). Instead, it's increasingly looking like a Kern coronation.

[Tender Branson]

It's looking increasingly like a Kern coronation.

Indeed. The Styria/Carinthia/Salzburg/Vorarlberg SPÖ-(leaders) have so far all come out in favour of Christian Kern.

Looks only like a matter of days until he's presented as new SPÖ-leader and Chancellor ...

[Tender Branson]

The Lower Austria-SPÖ and the Tyrol-SPÖ have also jumped on board the Kern-train:

http://derstandard.at/2000036665696/Unterstuetzung-in-der-SPOe-fuer-Kern-als-Kanzler-waechst

6/9 state SPÖ-parties are backing Kern now.

The Vienna-SPÖ and the Burgenland-SPÖ are in favour of Zeiler.

The Upper Austria SPÖ is undecided.

[Tender Branson]

So, who is Christian Kern ?

Kern (50), was born in Vienna's southern working-class district of Simmering (which trended heavily to the FPÖ recently) into a working-class family.

He studied communications at the Univ. of Vienna and then graduated with a management degree from the Univ. of St. Gallen (Switzerland). In the mid-1980s, he founded the Simmering-branch of the Green Party (but later joined the SPÖ, see below).

In the early 1990s he started working as an economics journalist and then became a parliamentary aide/press secretary for the SPÖ in the Vranitzky government. In 1997, he became a senior manager at the Verbund (a major renewable energy company) and their CEO in 2007. In 2010 he became the CEO of the Austrian Railway (ÖBB) and was credited for his efficient management last year in the asylum crisis, when 100.000s of asylum seekers used the Austrian Railway to travel to Germany. Kern was also responsible for launching an extensive study into the role of the Austrian Railway during the Nazi time, for which he was credited by the Austrian Jewish Community.

Kern is married and has 4 children (he has quite a hot, successful wife who worked for the green energy deptartment at Siemens and is now a green energy consultant for her own company). Yesterday, Kern posted on his Facebook page that he was at a MUSE concert in Vienna while Faymann called it quits ...

I guess I have to like this guy, considering he's a big fan of Muse ...

[Cranberry]

Maybe it's just me, but with the media spinning his name around and above and everywhere, I kind of get a feeling that in the end it won't be Kern we will be getting, and instead they will draw some apparatchnik out of some hat and call him a "compromise" candidate of what sorts. (not that Kern would be anything different, I fully agree with aross in that he is not at all an "outsider") Häupl is not really on board with Kern as far as I recall, and that guy still is a force within the SPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

Maybe it's just me, but with the media spinning his name around and above and everywhere, I kind of get a feeling that in the end it won't be Kern we will be getting, and instead they will draw some apparatchnik out of some hat and call him a "compromise" candidate of what sorts. (not that Kern would be anything different, I fully agree with aross in that he is not at all an "outsider") Häupl is not really on board with Kern as far as I recall, and that guy still is a force within the SPÖ.

Nah, I think it will be Kern.

Kern would probably be a good choice overall, especially to rebuild the party in opposition (which is the most likely path for the SPÖ in the next few years, because FPÖVP seems almost certain after the next elections, probably held next year or in the fall - who knows ?).

Kern could bring together the 3 competing factions within the SPÖ, because he's won praise among the leftist wing of the party last year because of his asylum transport management. He could also find a way to bring the "blue-dogs" who want closer co-operation with the FPÖ back in line, especially if the migrant stream slows down considerably when compared with the previous year. Frankly, I don't see anyone within the current SPÖ who'd be better qualified than Kern to achieve it.

[Cranberry]

Maybe it's just me, but with the media spinning his name around and above and everywhere, I kind of get a feeling that in the end it won't be Kern we will be getting, and instead they will draw some apparatchnik out of some hat and call him a "compromise" candidate of what sorts. (not that Kern would be anything different, I fully agree with aross in that he is not at all an "outsider") Häupl is not really on board with Kern as far as I recall, and that guy still is a force within the SPÖ.

Nah, I think it will be Kern.

Kern would probably be a good choice overall, especially to rebuild the party in opposition (which is the most likely path for the SPÖ in the next few years, because FPÖVP seems almost certain after the next elections, probably held next year or in the fall - who knows ?).

Kern could bring together the 3 competing factions within the SPÖ, because he's won praise among the leftist wing of the party last year because of his asylum transport management. He could also find a way to bring the "blue-dogs" who want closer co-operation with the FPÖ back in line, especially if the migrant stream slows down considerably when compared with the previous year. Frankly, I don't see anyone within the current SPÖ who'd be better qualified than Kern to achieve it.

That's because Kern has so far only been in the "safe space" of a public, SPÖ-near company; never however in the true spotlight of politics. The fact remains that we don't really know him, his set of policies, how he would govern or work in opposition - I just don't like make someone like him the Bundeskanzler of all offices.

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, 7/9 state SPÖs are officially for Kern + the unions + some cabinet members.

Burgenland's SPÖ will have a meeting later tonight to vote on Kern or someone else.

That means the Vienna-SPÖ (primarily Häupl) are the last ones standing against Kern and for Zeiler. Häupl is becoming increasingly isolated within the party, but as Cranberry mentioned, he still carries a lot of power.

That's why the Kurier is now speculating that Häupl could pull Brigitte Ederer out of the hat as a compromise candidate. Ederer is a former Siemens manager and would be the first female Chancellor in Austria of course.

[Tender Branson]

It's now official: Christian Kern will become the new Chancellor and SPÖ-leader.

Häupl/Vienna has folded, as the Burgenland-SPÖ also voted for Kern.

But Häupl/Vienna managed to get Vienna's Health Minister Sonja Wehsely a cabinet post in the new government, which will see a major re-shuffle. She'll either replace Josef Ostermayer as the Minister of the Chancellery & Arts, Culture, Media and Civil Servants, or she'll become the new Minister for Health.

Wehsely is a major left-leftist within the SPÖ-Vienna: I saw her speech at the WW2 commemoration recently in which she heavily attacked the FPÖ and said that the SPÖ should not even move an inch towards them. She's also very favourably towards refugees and the "welcome policy".

[aross]

What seems to have played a major part in this decision was that Zeiler wasn't particularly interested in the job - his main concern was removing Faymann, and he was prepared to present himself as an alternative candidate at the SPÖ NEC meeting where Faymann announced his resignation on Monday. (Kern couldn't have done this, as he isn't a member of the NEC.) Once Faymann was gone, Zeiler - despite presumably being tempted - soon decided he wasn't going to contest the leadership. The final details where allegedly settled in a phonecall between Häupl, Kern and Zeiler this morning. Kern will now be nominated for Leader by the grandees next Tuesday and will become Chancellor on Wednesday.

Some time last week, I remarked to a friend that I could only imagine one leader worse than Faymann - Kern. So, yay.

Attention now turns to who's for the sack and who will replace them:

OUT
Gerald Klug, Minister for Infrastructure, previously Defence. Faymann ally. Decidedly mediocre in both jobs, has kept a low profile.
Sonja Steßl, junior Minister (we only have 2 right now, so not as unimportant as it sounds) in the Chancellery, ie basically Faymann's personal assistant. Even lower profile.
Alois Stöger, Minister for Labour and Social Affairs, previously Infrastructure, Health. Always tipped for the sack due to being pretty useless, but never quite gets it. Quite close to Faymann, so perhaps this time he actually will.
Josef Ostermayer, Faymann's brain. Minister in the Chancellery for Culture & random other stuff. Should be obvious that he's gone, but is actually quite good at his job and has got the luvvies to fall in love with him, so he may yet stay.

IN
Wehesly. What Tender said. I'm still not sure whether I like her.
Jörg Leichtfried, Styrian provincial minister, MEP, well connected. Will supposedly replace Klug.
Rudolf Kaske, President of the Chamber of Labour, could be brought into the Cabinet (if he wants to be - I wouldn't right now, better to keep your powerful job for life). Would presumably replace Stöger.
Sabine Oberhauser, Minister for Health, is rumoured to receive a promotion.

[aross]

Tabloid Österreich did some polling:

Only 49% even expressing an opinion. Schieder is the Chair of the SPÖ's parliamentary group.
SPÖ voters: 33 % Kern, 18 % Zeiler, 9 % Doskozil
FPÖ voters: 7 % Kern, 10 % Zeiler, 17 % Doskozil
Faymann's legacy: 27% good/60% bad
New elections: 40% yes/42% no
Should ÖVP leader Mitterlehner resign too? 31% yes/42% no. 84% no among ÖVP voters.