It Couldn't Happen Here

[Dan the Roman]

In the summer of 2009 I began writing a timeline, since abandoned due to work and other commitments which attempted to paint a way in which a neo-facist party could come to power in the United States. Inspired by trends I saw in both the US and Europe, a number of the assumptions came true. It correctly foresaw the political difficulties Obama would run into, as well as Mitt Romney's nomination and defeat, and the rise of the alternative right in Europe. It even projected the rise of an internationalist Islamic movement in the Middle East, an American move towards isolationism, and generally the much more brutal nature of politics.

It got some things wrong, most blatantly when it came to individual politicians. It has much more ambitious futures for Rick Perry and Martha Coakley(lol) than real life had in store. Given my luck in that regard, Kelly Ayotte will lose reelection this November.

But for this timeline I may assume otherwise. I think everyone has more or less been assuming a Trump defeat. That is safe, but uninteresting. A further assumption is he would be an ineffective disaster if he were to win. I am doubtful. There is a lot that could be done politically, and the institutions that provide a check on executive power - congress, the courts, political parties, have never been more despised. The US is not Russia in 1999, but Russia in 1999 was not Russia in 2003. Putin carried out an unprecedented campaign of political consolidation based on picking and chosing key battles. Trump could do the same.

1. He is not going to deport every illegal immigrant, but he could very well deport some. For instance, specifically targeting Dream Act activists would be a politically brilliant move. By arresting those who take part in protests or sit-ins of congress, he would focus public resentment on their "entitlement" especially when many were students of elite schools. And a decision to deport Harvard students would all but force a post-Sanders left to stand and fight whatever the optics.

2. He is not going to abolish free speech, but RICO gives enormous power to the government. Technically, one could argue that the entire Guardian newspaper was criminally liable for their relationship with Snowden under it.

3. Electoral corruption is a long and gradual process. But in a climate of polarization, control of the coercive mechanisms of state combined with a few elite private forces can count for a lot.

This story will start in media res.

Violent Protesters Clash With Police in Boston
By Gabrial Putnam, Boston Globe Staff
July 15th, 2017

Dozens of protesters clashed with police after assaulting Trump supporters outside the detention center where more than two hundred illegal immigrants subject for deportation are being held. Carrying placards comparing the President to German dictator Adolf Hitler, members of the crowd attempted to charge the police line. This is fourth day of protests following the decision of the Justice Department to pursue deportation proceedings against 23 individuals who were arrested for occupying the office of Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama. Identifying themselves as "Dreamers" the protesters declared themselves to have been brought to the country illegally while minors and demanded that congress pass legislation to regularize their status. By contrast, the Justice Department maintains that they publicly admitted to being present in the country illegally, and that the decision to deport them follows official policy of deporting those who engage in criminal activity while in the country illegally.

"The Law must apply to everyone," DHS Secretary Kris Kobach told the press, "even those attending the nation's highest ranked universities for free."

"This is a disgrace to the Constitution and an affront to the values the nation was founded on," alleged Elizabeth Warren, two of whose aides were arrested at protests, and one of whose interns is facing deportation. Other Democrats have alleged the deportations are politically targeted. They have pointed to the fact that subsequent raids which detained more than 1100 individuals explicitly targeted those involved in political activism.

Protesters have shut down more than two dozen campuses across the country, while local governors have in four states called in the national guard to protect law-abiding students. "Anarchy will not permitted" declared Kansas governor Sam Brownback, while Indiana Governor Mike Pence has threatened to sign legislation to expel all those who can not prove their legal residency from state universities.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

i remember this timeline, i'll be excited to see how the new version develops!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

*shiver*

[Dan the Roman]

FOR: FORSEC, London
FROM: EMBWASHDC
Subject: Political Situation, Potential Russian Influence, Midterm Elections
Date 10-4-2018

- With six weeks until polling day, election campaign is in full swing. In contrast to previous contests, party lines are blurred. Many Democrats, especially members of Congressional Black Caucus, support Administration policies, and surviving anti-Administration Republicans in many cases face pro-Administration Democratic challengers. By contrast, incumbent Republicans opposing Administration have  often been denied ballot access as Republicans even in cases where they prevailed in primary contests on the basis that the RNC can determine official candidates. Most prominent example is House Speaker Paul Ryan running as Independent in Wisconsin district despite securing 61% in summer.

- Blurred party lines and ad hoc alliances have undermined opposition campaigns. Vast majority of Republican activist base have sided with Administration denying dissident Republicans campaign infrastructure. While unions, either through genuine sentiment or alleged internal "coups" have also been neutralized as Democratic lever, dissident Republicans lack any activist support whatsoever. On tours of Virginia districts, Embassy staff encountered only congressional staff and government employees campaigning for Republican incumbents. Further afield, observers failed to encounter any campaign activities whatsoever in many districts, including several represented by incumbents.

- Most anti-Trump energy belongs to left-wing, younger activists, many of whom supported Sanders in 2016. Activists exhibit plenty of enthusiasm, but effectiveness is undermined by a tendency to concentrate on social media echo chambers. Many are urban-based and rarely venture outside safe opposition districts. Clashes with supporters of African American Democrats supportive of Trump has largely discouraged activists from venturing into such regions. Such efforts, when attempted, have led to violence, which has served to reinforce African American alienation from mainstream Democratic opinion. Allegations have been made that a number of such clashes were the result of efforts of agent provocateurs. Embassy staff were unable to verify such reports, though in private conversations several Administration supporters claimed to have engaged in such operations.

- Fatal weakness of opposition campaign however lies in inability of Democratic leadership to persuade left-wing supporters to assist campaigns of anti-Trump republicans. Refusal to back candidates with unacceptable positions on abortion, lgbt issues, undermines opposition unity.

(Confidential)

- Senior Embassy Official had the opportunity to speak privately with senior Republican connected at a high level with Administration. Republican had assisted with transition efforts and oversaw consulting firm with international clients, having previously served with Romney. Had been highly critical of entire GOP field in 2016, and while displeased with Trump had nothing but contempt for opposition. Individual made a number of comments.

- Source was scathing about the opposition campaign. In Source view, opposition focus on procedural issues was falling flat, in the face of incoherent messaging which adopted every position on every major issue, something that has provided a field day to Pro-Administration forces. Latter have been able to portray opposition candidates as supporting mandatory Spanish requirements for graduation, unlimited immigration, abortion on demand, no abortion under any circumstance, mandatory sex ed in schools starting at age 5, racial quotas for university admissions, and a host of other extreme positions held by some candidates. By contrast Administration messaging is clear, concise and coherent.

- On major issues, Administration has forced opposition into corner. Immigration issue has been reduced to the fate of a few dozen privileged students at elite universities whose every media appearance serves Administration interest. Source alleges that decision to provide extensive media access to prisoners is deliberate effort at PR. Similar line has been taken by providing media access to arrested journalists known for defending 9/11 attacks, suicide bombings, and killing of police but not more moderate figures.

- While Source indicates that state and local control of electoral process makes any general prognosis about the fairness of the counting process difficult, he indicated that social media concern was misplaced. Major problems were not likely to arise in high-income suburban and urban precincts, where opposition strength sufficient to secure free poll, but rather in overwhelmingly Republican areas where Pro-Administration forces not only control party but entire local government including police. Threats of violence have driven out any alternative observers, and counting may not be transparent or reflected in reported results. Source expects this to contribute, though not cause, poor showing by dissident Republicans. Source would be surprised if more than two dozen were to be returned out of more than 70 incumbents. Overall, Source feels Administration should have a working majority of at least 30 in the House. Senate will be a greater challenge due to difficulty of statewide campaigns, but pointed to two underestimated factors.

- Source expressed contempt for social media mockery of "Un-skewing" polling firms and rival "election boards" established by Pro-Administration governors. Source indicated that rather than being product of American conservative media, polling firms had in fact been set up on advice of Igor Sechin. Their intent is not to motivate supporters, but to create climate where extensive polling results showing major leads for Administration candidates serve to create a narrative, as well as to justify results.

- Rival election boards fulfill the same goal. Source was contemptuous of suggestions such boards were "toothless". Source believes that in event of rival declarations, court rulings will be meaningless and that force will be used to install "official" winners. Sechin recommended to Lewondowski, according to source, that if "electoral boards" announced Pro-Administration candidates victors, and Governors then certified said result, that force, likely involving invasion of Senate chamber by pro-Administration "activists" and threats of violence would serve to secure seating of "official" victors.

- In both cases, new FCC rules banning release of "incomplete" results will play key role. Source fully expects opposition to use social media to spread partial results, but expects Administration supporters to counter with own, as well as with "trolls" who why ostensibly supporting opposition, will spread absurd and incorrect numbers so as to sow confusion.

- Based on discussions with source and observations, informed judgement is to avoid provocations likely to harm relations with Administration. While pro forma protests over process may be necessary, opposition is weak force, unlikely to triumph either in November or 2020. Working relationship must be pursued with current Administration.

- While demands to expel American students engaged in anti-Administration activities should be rejected, it may well be useful to utilize threat of such action to discourage activism which might undermine relations with Washington.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Dan! You're back! Absolutely loved your old tl. (By the way, I sent you a PM about using your character some years ago that might still be relevant) I look forward to reading this (haven't yet, too busy being ecstatic of your return).

Also, from what I remember of your posts (I reread your original work a few times), you were working on your dissertation. How are things since?

[Dan the Roman]

Dan! You're back! Absolutely loved your old tl. (By the way, I sent you a PM about using your character some years ago that might still be relevant) I look forward to reading this (haven't yet, too busy being ecstatic of your return).

Also, from what I remember of your posts (I reread your original work a few times), you were working on your dissertation. How are things since?

Pretty good. I am teaching now at a particular prominent independent school in the UK, though I had a policy job which limited my ability to write stuff online previously. Though you can expect a few more of the vaguely official looking Foriegn Office cables. They are actually a fairly good narrative device for political developments since the intended audience usually needs a degree of background information to make sense of events. They also allow one to express the opinions of individuals without having to fully fabricate conversations, but rather their substance.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Dan! You're back! Absolutely loved your old tl. (By the way, I sent you a PM about using your character some years ago that might still be relevant) I look forward to reading this (haven't yet, too busy being ecstatic of your return).

Also, from what I remember of your posts (I reread your original work a few times), you were working on your dissertation. How are things since?

Pretty good. I am teaching now at a particular prominent independent school in the UK, though I had a policy job which limited my ability to write stuff online previously. Though you can expect a few more of the vaguely official looking Foriegn Office cables. They are actually a fairly good narrative device for political developments since the intended audience usually needs a degree of background information to make sense of events. They also allow one to express the opinions of individuals without having to fully fabricate conversations, but rather their substance.

Ah, congratulations!

[Dan the Roman]

Very interesting.  I have to think with our significantly more martial culture and roughly as many guns as people floating around, that any Hitler/Mussolini or even Putin level fascism scenario would be quickly met with a civil war.  As I recall, your original timeline had left-wing authoritarian rule, as opposed to the right-wing authoritarian rule depicted here?

In either case, I would think secession of CA or TX within 2-3 years is basically a certainty, with several surrounding states following.  There would be a substantial chance of enough defectors among the joint chiefs of staff to sneak 100 or so nukes over to the leaders of the secessionist movement, which would basically force the federal government to relinquish all control and let them go in peace.  Cold war between the states?

That would be the case if Trump declared martial law. But what if you kept all the laws, structures, and offices nominally intact. You held elections, competing candidates ran, critical media existed, and even dominated social media? What if what you did was merely have the police, who in many parts of the country will have sympathy with the Trump Administration, behave in a biased way, arresting anti-Trump protesters but releasing pro-Trump activists in clashes? What if you responded to such clashes as an excuse to evict anti-Trump people and representatives from counting processes, if you removed candidates who did not support him from the ballot in favor of those who did and took control of organizations by launching coups internally and then recognizing "official" leaderships?

If the only "losers" are urban liberals(and they still have plenty economically), careerist Washington figures, and a screaming social/media elite, who is going to fight a civil war for them?

[Kingpoleon]

I'm reading with what I'd call morbid curiosity. Will we get a Cabinet list soon?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Trump taking on the Dreamers like that is a dream come true!

[Deblano]

I guess it's pretty much Weimar America in this timeline.

[Dan the Roman]

Very interesting.  I have to think with our significantly more martial culture and roughly as many guns as people floating around, that any Hitler/Mussolini or even Putin level fascism scenario would be quickly met with a civil war.  As I recall, your original timeline had left-wing authoritarian rule, as opposed to the right-wing authoritarian rule depicted here?

In either case, I would think secession of CA or TX within 2-3 years is basically a certainty, with several surrounding states following.  There would be a substantial chance of enough defectors among the joint chiefs of staff to sneak 100 or so nukes over to the leaders of the secessionist movement, which would basically force the federal government to relinquish all control and let them go in peace.  Cold war between the states?

That would be the case if Trump declared martial law. But what if you kept all the laws, structures, and offices nominally intact. You held elections, competing candidates ran, critical media existed, and even dominated social media? What if what you did was merely have the police, who in many parts of the country will have sympathy with the Trump Administration, behave in a biased way, arresting anti-Trump protesters but releasing pro-Trump activists in clashes? What if you responded to such clashes as an excuse to evict anti-Trump people and representatives from counting processes, if you removed candidates who did not support him from the ballot in favor of those who did and took control of organizations by launching coups internally and then recognizing "official" leaderships?

If the only "losers" are urban liberals(and they still have plenty economically), careerist Washington figures, and a screaming social/media elite, who is going to fight a civil war for them?

Speaker Ryan and Senator Cruz, both of whom would just love to cosplay the Roundheads and thanks to our Constitution wouldn't ever need to resort to violence.  In coalition with minority Democrats he will easily have 2/3rds in both houses and would impeach Trump and Trump's VP for so much as jaywalking.  Maybe they could even get an amendment repealing Article 2 referred to the states, then Ryan could have some of the joint chiefs swear loyalty to him, and assert parliamentary supremacy from the Speaker's Chair?

As is implied in the UK Ambassador's Cable, Congress is at least as of October 2018, controlled by a coalition of anti-Administration(no official cable would ever use the term "Trump") Republicans and Democrats who evidently lack either the numbers or internal unity to push through impeachment. They are nevertheless attempting to run in alliance in the midterms, but as is indicated, the anti-Administration Republicans have suffered badly in the primaries, from having been removed from the ballot in some cases after them, and from a general lack of activist support.

[Türkisblau]

This is excellent; I love the previous timeline and I love this one!

[Dan the Roman]

Two Years Earlier
June 8th 2016
Clinton Limps to Finish Line with a Final Defeat

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders sold himself as a stronger general election candidate than Hillary Clinton after winning the California primary 52-48, and pledged to take the fight for the nomination to the convention. “We have won a majority of states in this primary process,” Sanders announced, “and at a time when the threat of a Donald Trump presidency is too real, we cannot afford more of the same by nominating Secretary Clinton.”

Sanders’ victory still leaves him nearly 200 behind in the pledged delegate count, and Clinton has already secured the requisite number to secure the nomination if one counts unpledged and unelected “Super-Delegates” but that is likely to come as cold comfort for a Clinton campaign that has been battered by the indictment of two close aides in connection with the controversy over State Department emails, and has been unable to put the primary behind them in order to focus on Donald Trump for the general. A visibly exhausted Secretary Clinton congratulated Senator Sanders on the California results before urging Democrats to unite once more, and declaring that for the first time a major party had nominated a woman for President.

Sanders was also quick to receive congratulations from presumed Republican nominee Donald Trump, who tweeted “Another sign that the American people don’t want Hillary. Bernie has won again, and is clearly the people’s choice. Clinton will still win. Process is rigged!” Trump, who was on a tour of the Midwest, was promoting his opposition to the TIPP free trade agreement, as well has plans to prosecute employers who hired illegal workers.

Despite the refusal of some high-profile Republicans to endorse him, and a nearly $50 million ad campaign from Clinton supporting Superpacs, Trump has closed Clinton’s lead to low single-digits. A recent PPP national poll had him down 47-46, while ABC has him leading 48-46.

The Clinton campaign has been desperate to put the primary process behind them, but the Sanders win is likely to make that task harder. Sanders is showing no signs of dropping out, and the prospect of it dragging out to the convention cannot be dismissed.

[Dan the Roman]

June 23rd 2016

Divisions Deepen Over Croatian Shoot To Kill orders

The war of words between EU officials deepened a week after six Croatian border guards were killed in a shootout with migrants attempting to cross the border into Europe, and two days after Deputy Prime Minister Tomislav Karamarko announced that Croatia's border was closed, and that migrants attempting to illegally cross would be met with deadly force.

EU Commission President Jean Claude Juncker condemned the Croatian actions, declaring them to be in violation of EU law and suggesting that only an EU-wide policy could resolve the refugee issue, while German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed concern about the potential impacts on radicalization throughout the continent. At the same time, the governments of Poland, Hungary, Lithuania, and Slovakia expressed support for the Croatian decision as did Boris Johnson in the UK.

The issue has also become an issue of contention in the US Presidential race, after Republican Donald Trump praised Karamarko for "defending his country", and called Merkel's policy "just mad". Trump also again urged British voters to leave the EU. Hillary Clinton, by contrast, came under fire after having agreed to join President Obama in warning British voters against leaving the EU, as well as for having called for the United States to admit 100,000 Syrian refugees last week. Bernie Sanders, still campaigning for the Democratic nomination had compared the admission of Syrian refugees to the failure to admit Jewish children during the 1930s, and called the fight against Islamphobia the civil rights movement of our time.

[Mr. Morden]

i remember this timeline, i'll be excited to see how the new version develops!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

*shiver*

*bump*

And now here we are.  Kobach is considered the favorite to be named Secretary of DHS by President Trump.

[BSH]

i remember this timeline, i'll be excited to see how the new version develops!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

*shiver*

*bump*

And now here we are.  Kobach is considered the favorite to be named Secretary of DHS by President Trump.

Gotta love when the far-fetched extreme TLs are the most realistic ones...