LA-JMC: Trump 52 Clinton 36
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  LA-JMC: Trump 52 Clinton 36
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Author Topic: LA-JMC: Trump 52 Clinton 36  (Read 2523 times)
HillOfANight
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« on: May 09, 2016, 07:12:54 PM »

http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LA-Presidential-Executive-Summary.pdf

Trump 52%
Clinton 36%
Third Party 4%
Undecided 8%

Trump 55%
Sanders 32%
Third Party 4%
Undecided 10%
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #1 on: May 09, 2016, 07:38:09 PM »

But.... but... muh primary turnout!

In all seriousness, this is a D+ rated pollster with a 22.9% error rate (third highest error rate of all the pollsters 538 tracks). If we use that error rate we could be looking at anywhere from a 7 point Clinton win to a 39 point Trump win.

Honestly, I don't understand how the rating system works. Why is this organization rated higher then the Dane and Associates, which has a lower error rate? Is it just that JMC has more awful polls to work with? What's the deal?
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #2 on: May 09, 2016, 07:46:23 PM »

538 has a convoluted method that gives bonus points for "methodology". These guys were spot on with Democrat John Bel Edwards winning in 2015 btw.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2015-louisiana-governor-vitter-vs-edwards

Except for their last poll, they were right about the JBE landslide.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #3 on: May 09, 2016, 07:51:09 PM »

Trump has a big lead in a very red, very inelastic state.

More at 11.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #4 on: May 09, 2016, 07:52:58 PM »

Oh no, how will Hillary ever win without LA!?
#NotSoInevitable
#LANotReady4Her
#Trumpmentum
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RFayette
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« Reply #5 on: May 09, 2016, 07:56:53 PM »

Cruz did relatively well in Louisiana, so this isn't a bad number for Trump.  The goal for Trump is to keep his loss at 4-6 points, and this is certainly within that benchmark.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #6 on: May 09, 2016, 08:12:27 PM »

Sanders polling worse than Clinton is interesting.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: May 09, 2016, 08:12:43 PM »

About as expected.
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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #8 on: May 09, 2016, 08:22:01 PM »

Obama lost the state by 17 points in 2012, so this is about on par with that.
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Devils30
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« Reply #9 on: May 09, 2016, 11:42:33 PM »

I think Clinton does about Landrieu ish, loses by 9-10.
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #10 on: May 09, 2016, 11:46:37 PM »

Trump has a big lead in a very red, very inelastic state.

More at 11.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #11 on: May 10, 2016, 01:13:57 AM »

Interesting, I had expected LA to be quite close....

Nah, LA is a tailor-made state for Trump.
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RFayette
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« Reply #12 on: May 10, 2016, 02:54:45 AM »

Obama lost the state by 17 points in 2012, so this is about on par with that.

Yes, and he did better there in 2012 than in 2008, suggesting it was all about black turnout.  I would be shocked if Louisiana didn't trend R in PVI this year.  This is consistent with a loss between Romney and McCain levels nationally for Trump, but I don't think it's consistent with a 13 point loss.

Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia should all trend R this year.  I'd think Missouri would too, but some polling has me less confident here.  Appalachian/Upland/Gulf Coast whites are just up Trump's alley.
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HAnnA MArin County
semocrat08
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« Reply #13 on: May 10, 2016, 09:40:53 AM »

Sanders polling worse than Clinton is interesting.

Did somebody alert jfern?
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Mallow
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« Reply #14 on: May 10, 2016, 05:39:16 PM »

In a 7.5 point national Dem win, I have Louisiana's margin at about 22 points, so this result is pretty much on par.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #15 on: May 10, 2016, 05:47:59 PM »

Trump favorability: 47/43 (63/26 among Whites)
Clinton's favorability: 35/59 (14/80 among Whites)

Interesting, I had expected LA to be quite close....

Oh man, deep south whites love Trump. He speaks their language. Don't know why so many people are surprised, just because her husband won it by double digits in '96?

I think Clinton does about Landrieu ish, loses by 9-10.

She'll do much worse.
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RFayette
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« Reply #16 on: May 11, 2016, 01:04:55 AM »

Trump favorability: 47/43 (63/26 among Whites)
Clinton's favorability: 35/59 (14/80 among Whites)

Interesting, I had expected LA to be quite close....

Oh man, deep south whites love Trump. He speaks their language. Don't know why so many people are surprised, just because her husband won it by double digits in '96?


Clinton '96 ran on being a tough-on-crime, deficit-lowering, pro-death penalty centrist Dem who was a foe of the special interests.  Why should it be a huge surprise many of those Southerners are now for Trump?
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