PPP - National horse race: Clinton +4

[Mr. Morden]

If Lice ran third party, what would the electoral map look like?  I wonder if Lice would have a shot at Utah?  Maybe Lice would also have a strong showing in Waukesha County?

[Mr. Morden]

Given Trump's unpopularity, a 3rd party candidate getting a few per cent this year is certainly possible.  The problem is, I don't think there's an easy way for the polls to measure this.  Polls tend to be terrible at distinguishing between someone getting 0.1% and someone getting 4.0%.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/05/gop-quickly-unifies-around-trump-clinton-still-has-modest-lead.html

From this poll…

Do vaccines cause autism?

Dems
yes 18%
no 53%
not sure 29%

GOP
yes 20%
no 53%
not sure 27%

Indies
yes 16%
no 53%
not sure 31%

Was Obama born in the US?

Dems
yes 85%
no 9%
not sure 6%

GOP
yes 26%
no 58%
not sure 16%

Indies
yes 58%
no 22%
not sure 20%

Is Obama Christian or Muslim?

Dems
Christian 73%
Muslim 10%
not sure 17%

GOP
Christian 13%
Muslim 59%
not sure 28%

Indies
Christian 43%
Muslim 27%
not sure 30%