Democratic WV primary + NE fake contest results thread (1st polls close @7:30ET)

[IceSpear]

I'm really hoping that WV keeps its trend of never picking my choice for president. If Sanders wins here, it'll look bad for him, and it would hurt my pride. LET'S GO, HILLDAWG! COME FROM BEHIND WIN IN WV!!

I think I'll pass that West Virginia hot potato back in your direction.

GO BERNIE! GO JUDD! GO O'MALLEY! GO FARRELL! GO DA LA FUENTE!

[IceSpear]

Ummm....

9% of Clinton voters would back Trump over Clinton
39% of Sanders voters would back Trump over Sanders

Looks like we may have some Trump supporters causing shenanigans in WV.

Pro-Trump Independents no longer have a reason to vote in the GOP primary.

[IceSpear]

IceSpear and xingkerui talk about West Virginia the way 1980s Tory hacks talked about Derbyshire.

I'm pretty sure IceSpear did not mind WV voting overwhelmingly for Hillary over Obama in 2008, just as he probably didn't mind her winning Oklahoma.

It was a bit uncomfortable, WV in particular. But they only clearly exposed their true colors when over 40% of them voted for a prison inmate over the incumbent black president.

[IceSpear]

Ummm....

9% of Clinton voters would back Trump over Clinton
39% of Sanders voters would back Trump over Sanders

Looks like we may have some Trump supporters causing shenanigans in WV.

Pro-Trump Independents no longer have a reason to vote in the GOP primary.

But what's the point in voting for a candidate in a primary that you didn't intend to vote for in the general?

Well, if they wanted their vote to matter, they could only vote in the Dem primary. So in their eyes, they chose the "least worst" option in that primary. They also want to stick it to Obama and the Democratic Party.

[IceSpear]

The Democratic primary is going to have a lot more votes than the Republican one.

Not surprising whatsoever, of course.

When are you going to give up the "WV residents are Democrats at heart!" meme? Will it be when Trump carries the state 2:1? Or when the governor, Senators, and House delegation is 100% Republican after 2018?

[IceSpear]

The Democratic primary is going to have a lot more votes than the Republican one.

Not surprising whatsoever, of course.

When are you going to give up the "WV residents are Democrats at heart!" meme? Will it be when Trump carries the state 2:1? Or when the governor, Senators, and House delegation is 100% Republican after 2018?

Calm down, dude, your party elitism will be alive and well come November.  I'm just saying that anyone with an inkling of knowledge about WV politics knew that more folks were going to vote in the Democratic primary...

So you admit WV is now a solid R state?

[IceSpear]

Hillary in third place in exit polls according to a tweet.

That would be amazing and hilarious if true. Unfortunately, with the protest vote being split between 5 different candidates, I highly doubt it happens. Why would people favor Judd over O'Malley or Farrell?

[IceSpear]

Why is this worth more delegates than Delaware and Hawai'i? There are absolutely no real Democrats.

Uh, because "real Democrats" is a subjective term and can't be applied. Even just two years ago, WV had 2 Democratic Senators, a Democratic Governor, a Democratic House/Senate, and the vast majority of county offices controlled by Democrats.


Also:

Dots are gradient shifts; the larger mark is a county flip (Hampshire).

Two-way model:



Somewhere (maybe Potus still has it in his inbox), I made a GIF of WV partisan registration by county going back to 2006 or so. Very little movement in terms of flips over that time - I think 3 or 4 counties, tops.

In the last 18 months, WV has lost 30,000 Democrats and added 21,000 Republicans.

Currently:
D: 577,977
R: 374,931
O: 289,677

Yea, what the hell does this even mean?  

Tell moi, IceBreath...

I'm a registered Independent that would verbally smite anyone to call me a "Democrat".  Also consider the WV man who would berate one for calling them anything BUT a Democrat and stays registered as one...

Who is the "real Democrat"?  Is it me because I'm for abortion rights and WV man isn't?  Is that the issue?  Or gay marriage?  Or trade deals?   Is it about loyalty on the Presidential level or state level or local level, etc etc etc

It makes no sense.  I know this because it's an argument I used to make myself and I didn't have a good argument for it other than "ermergerd DINO" or "omg agrees with Dubya!".  

Don't be silly. You're a Democrat who is salty that your favored candidate lost the primary. I guarantee you will be a Democrat again before the end of the decade.

[IceSpear]

The Democratic primary is going to have a lot more votes than the Republican one.

Not surprising whatsoever, of course.

When are you going to give up the "WV residents are Democrats at heart!" meme? Will it be when Trump carries the state 2:1? Or when the governor, Senators, and House delegation is 100% Republican after 2018?

Calm down, dude, your party elitism will be alive and well come November.  I'm just saying that anyone with an inkling of knowledge about WV politics knew that more folks were going to vote in the Democratic primary...

So you admit WV is now a solid R state?

As if you guys acted any less smug about it when it wasn't?

Well, I'm glad we've finally reached consensus on this matter.

[IceSpear]

Come on, O'Malley, you can win a few counties! 

If only O'Malley, Judd, Farrell, and De La Fuente worked out a deal so that only one would've been on the ballot, they could've gotten some delegates. Truly a missed opportunity for the #NeverHillaryOrBernie forces.

[IceSpear]

Why is this worth more delegates than Delaware and Hawai'i? There are absolutely no real Democrats.

Uh, because "real Democrats" is a subjective term and can't be applied. Even just two years ago, WV had 2 Democratic Senators, a Democratic Governor, a Democratic House/Senate, and the vast majority of county offices controlled by Democrats.


Also:

Dots are gradient shifts; the larger mark is a county flip (Hampshire).

Two-way model:



Somewhere (maybe Potus still has it in his inbox), I made a GIF of WV partisan registration by county going back to 2006 or so. Very little movement in terms of flips over that time - I think 3 or 4 counties, tops.

In the last 18 months, WV has lost 30,000 Democrats and added 21,000 Republicans.

Currently:
D: 577,977
R: 374,931
O: 289,677

Yea, what the hell does this even mean?  

Tell moi, IceBreath...

I'm a registered Independent that would verbally smite anyone to call me a "Democrat".  Also consider the WV man who would berate one for calling them anything BUT a Democrat and stays registered as one...

Who is the "real Democrat"?  Is it me because I'm for abortion rights and WV man isn't?  Is that the issue?  Or gay marriage?  Or trade deals?   Is it about loyalty on the Presidential level or state level or local level, etc etc etc

It makes no sense.  I know this because it's an argument I used to make myself and I didn't have a good argument for it other than "ermergerd DINO" or "omg agrees with Dubya!".  

Don't be silly. You're a Democrat who is salty that your favored candidate lost the primary. I guarantee you will be a Democrat again before the end of the decade.

I bet the old "racist" coal miner who isn't sufficiently culturally elitist enough for your liking will be, too.

Self indentification is irrelevant anyway. If you vote for/support one party 99% of the time, you are a de facto member of that party. A registered Democrat/Republican who splits their ticket often is far more of an "independent" than a registered independent who always votes straight ticket D/R.

[IceSpear]

Exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/wv/Dem

Sanders 57%
Clinton 38%

I feel like the protest vote will be way higher than that.

Also, great news! Thank you for the loss West Virginia!

[IceSpear]

How smug, and you didn't answer the question.

Not that you could, but if you asked people that know me it's long been my position that I'd rather be independent but NJ's primary system made it convenient to stay registered as one.  

Now, I've found enough reason to make it official.  Have you seen my avatar?  It's fairly green.

If you read the blockquote, I wasn't even the person you were replying to. So I have no idea why you posed the question to me.

What is the reason you changed it, if not because Sanders lost?

Anyway, see you back on the D ship in a few years.

[IceSpear]

Exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/wv/Dem

Sanders 57%
Clinton 38%

I feel like the protest vote will be way higher than that.

Also, great news! Thank you for the loss West Virginia!

Wonder if Sanders voters could've gotten away with celebrating the losses in the South?  Hmmm.....

(and please note these are not owning class, elitist whites in WV)

If you check Reddit, you'd see many people thinking their votes shouldn't count because they live in the South. So yes, they do "get away with that", and also get away with much worse.

And didn't you say you hoped SC would "get lynched" for voting for Hillary? Probably not in the best position to throw stones here.

[IceSpear]

Exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/wv/Dem

Sanders 57%
Clinton 38%

I feel like the protest vote will be way higher than that.

Also, great news! Thank you for the loss West Virginia!

Wonder if Sanders voters could've gotten away with celebrating the losses in the South?  Hmmm.....

(and please note these are not owning class, elitist whites in WV)

Bernie himself diminished her wins in the South and wrote them off since "Democrats aren't going to win those states anyway," so using his same "logic," his win in West Virginia tonight is totally irrelevant because it does nothing considered 1) he isn't going to be the nominee and 2) Trump is going to outRomney the state in November.

They were dumb racist rednecks in 2008 when she won in a landslide. Is it still safe to call them that after tonight?

It's going to be fun to contrast the WV response from the "true progressives" in 2008 with their response tonight...

Disgusting racist hicks -> populist heroes!

[IceSpear]

How smug, and you didn't answer the question.

Not that you could, but if you asked people that know me it's long been my position that I'd rather be independent but NJ's primary system made it convenient to stay registered as one.  

Now, I've found enough reason to make it official.  Have you seen my avatar?  It's fairly green.

If you read the blockquote, I wasn't even the person you were replying to. So I have no idea why you posed the question to me.

What is the reason you changed it, if not because Sanders lost?

Anyway, see you back on the D ship in a few years.

Nope.  It's why and how.  

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/clinton-and-the-dnc-are-not-just-colluding----theyre-changing-the-rules-for-superdelegates_b_9876274.html

Simply, the validation of existing reservations with the party.  And, of course, my former party ditching economic progressivism in favor of turning back to the Clintons for the foreseeable future.  That's a biggie.

I've never read such a long article that stated absolutely nothing of value. Typical from Seth Abramson, H.A. Goodman's mini-me.

Hillary Clinton will win by hundreds of elected delegates and millions of votes. Superdelegates, as always, will be irrelevant. What exactly is the problem here?

[IceSpear]

How smug, and you didn't answer the question.

Not that you could, but if you asked people that know me it's long been my position that I'd rather be independent but NJ's primary system made it convenient to stay registered as one.  

Now, I've found enough reason to make it official.  Have you seen my avatar?  It's fairly green.

If you read the blockquote, I wasn't even the person you were replying to. So I have no idea why you posed the question to me.

What is the reason you changed it, if not because Sanders lost?

Anyway, see you back on the D ship in a few years.

Nope.  It's why and how.  

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/clinton-and-the-dnc-are-not-just-colluding----theyre-changing-the-rules-for-superdelegates_b_9876274.html

Simply, the validation of existing reservations with the party.  And, of course, my former party ditching economic progressivism in favor of turning back to the Clintons for the foreseeable future.  That's a biggie.

I've never read such a long article that stated absolutely nothing of value. Typical from Seth Abramson, H.A. Goodman's mini-me.

Hillary Clinton will win by hundreds of elected delegates and millions of votes. Superdelegates, as always, will be irrelevant. What exactly is the problem here?

Ah... of course you do not see.  My problem is that the party has a system that fancies itself democratic but allows party elites to declare their support before a vote is cast.  And that it was like... 500 to 10 out of the gates between Hillary Clinton and the most leftist Senator in Congress was startling to someone who, as a Democrat, was on the far left edge of the party.  Tells me that the party is far to the right of me.  

Fair enough, but it will have no impact on the result, so who cares? I could understand leaving the party if the superdelegates overturned the result, but who really cares if they're just a rubber stamp? They likely would've switched to Bernie if he won, just like they switched to Obama in 2008.

[IceSpear]

Farrell is at 4.9% so far, is he the choice of the protest voters? We'll see!

And as expected, Da La Fuente is last. Far, far too "ethnic" of a name for the good voters of West Virginia.

[IceSpear]

It's absentee ballots from lazy ass geezers who worship clinton.

Mods plz ban

Um, his comment is not nearly as bad as some other comments made in this thread. For some reason, even mentioning WV causes a meltdown among many Atlas posters.

As opposed to mentioning NH, which causes a meltdown among a single Atlas poster.

[IceSpear]

Anyone else shocked of how close it is? I expected Bernie to demolish Hillary at the start. I bet the delegate spread will be tied.

It's early vote. Remember Indiana?

[IceSpear]

Sanders takes the lead.

where are you watching? It is not, yet, on NYT.

NYT's usually behind. CNN's faster.

I still refuse to use them on principle, due to their hideous color scheme and lack of capitalization.

[IceSpear]

Why do WV Democrats hate O'Malley? Because he was an actual Democrat who actually ran in the primaries? Farrell is curbstomping him.

[IceSpear]

So CNN says 10% reporting but NYT says 1%. Weird.

That's how it always is. CNN is using a raw vote estimate (more accurate) while NYT is % of precincts, and early vote throws it off a lot.

[IceSpear]

Sanders starting to take a decent lead, 48.3-42.4% with 17% in.  So the exit polls might not have been off that badly.

Thank god.

[IceSpear]

Why are there so many "others" getting votes?

Why wouldn't there be? Edwards got 7% in 2008. Oklahoma had 7% "other" this year. I'm actually somewhat surprised it isn't higher, though it might rise once more election day votes come in.